Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I'm curious myself, I think those who don't want to return could return if WOM is very strong.

I think that all depends on how a person feels about the first movie. WOM tends to have more of an effect on original movies rather than sequels, but after this kind of gap it likely won't play by the same rules. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by SchumacherFTW

[Krissykins]

I had a look over a few pages and couldn’t see this posted, so apologies in advance if it has

 

Surely that’s nonsense? 
 

Seems they’re basing it on a strange comment James Cameron made. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Krissykins

[THUNDER BIRD]

Just now, Krissykins said:

I had a look over a few pages and couldn’t see this posted, so apologies in advance if it has

 

Surely that’s nonsense? 

That's just James Cameron saying it will have to be 4th or 5th highest grossing movie to be profitable, just a passing comment.

 

And media as always took it and run with it. Now everywhere everyone is saying it needs 2 billion to break-even.

[THUNDER BIRD]

19 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It's still a sequel, can't be that groundbreaking 🤷‍♂️

Last 2 sequels James Cameron made.

 

Aliens and Terminator Judgement Day.

[Porthos]

Just now, Krissykins said:

I had a look over a few pages and couldn’t see this posted, so apologies in advance if it has

 

Surely that’s nonsense? 

 

The cost of the film? Might depend on how much of the tech that is also gonna be used for A3-A5 is being added solely on the budget of this one.  Frontloading some of the costs for all four films, perhaps.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I had a look over a few pages and couldn’t see this posted, so apologies in advance if it has

 

Surely that’s nonsense? 
 

Seems they’re basing it on a strange comment James Cameron made. 

 

Nonsense by Variety yes! Cameron meant never said Avatar 2 needed 2 billion to break even.

Edited November 23, 2022 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The cost of the film? Might depend on how much of the tech that is also gonna be used for A3-A5 is being added solely on the budget of this one.  Frontloading some of the costs for all four films, perhaps.

Could be loads of things this means. People are taking this article like it's headline is correct and it's funny, I don't mind it even though it's false.

 

[dignam]

Cameron is not only the king of Boxoffice, he is also the king of sequels 😁 For me aliens and terminator 2 are the best sequels ever made, nothing comes close. Maybe Avatar 2, we will see 😁

Edited November 23, 2022 by dignam

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, dignam said:

Cameron is not only the king of Boxoffice, he is also the king of sequels 😁 For me aliens and terminator 2 are the best sequels ever made, nothing comes close. Maybe Avatar 2, we will see 😁

The Dark Knight, Empire Strikes Back, Godfather II….

[Fanboy]

Toy Story 3 to me is the best sequel/threequel of all time. I don't know how they could have made it better. Followed by Shrek 2, but T2 and Aliens are up there for sure. 

[Nero]

43 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

The Dark Knight, Empire Strikes Back, Godfather II….

Spiderman 2

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

I had a look over a few pages and couldn’t see this posted, so apologies in advance if it has

 

Surely that’s nonsense? 
 

Seems they’re basing it on a strange comment James Cameron made. 

 

I think this one of those cases where a quote requires a follow up question. In this case the only thing that makes sense to me is that Cameron was referring to Domestic gross not worldwide. It's well known that roughly $1 Billion has been set aside for the production of 4 Avatar movies. Let's assume Way of Water costs $300 million + $200 million for worldwide marketing. 

 

Total cost = $500 million 

 

If they hope to recover 100% of those costs from the domestic theatrical revenue alone then they would need around $1B. More realistically if WoW ends up 5th in Domestic gross it should easily break even on that portion alone when you factor revenue from marketing partnerships/merchandise and post release (PPV/DVD-Blu-4K/Rentals etc...). And then you have all of the international box office which makes up the majority of their revenue. 

 

The math does not work for a movie to require $2 Billion to break even, no studio on the planet would approve a production budget that is a multiple of the most expensive movies ever made, no chance. 

 

 

1	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avengers: Endgame	$858,373,000	2019
3	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$814,115,070	2021
4	Avatar	$785,221,649	2009
5	Top Gun: Maverick	$716,657,763	2022
6	Black Panther	$700,426,566	2018

 

 

 

 

 

[dignam]

Just saw a tv spot with many new scenes. It was epic. Anyone has a yt link?

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

7 hours ago, thajdikt said:

The reveiew emabargo dropping that late is fine. Disney has done it with almost every movie now and WB did it with The Batman aswell. I would be more worried if they dropped the reactions embargo later. I would argue it´s actually smart of them to drop the embargo that week. Build up the Buzz at that week instead of a week before. That´s just me tho

IIRC The Batman's review embargo dropped on Monday at noon ET the week of release, so one day earlier, but yeah, still release week.

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, dignam said:

Just saw a tv spot with many new scenes. It was epic. Anyone has a yt link?

 

 

 

I don't see official page posted this but I was shocked to see death star-like superlaser.  

[Krissykins]

5 hours ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

That's just James Cameron saying it will have to be 4th or 5th highest grossing movie to be profitable, just a passing comment.

 

And media as always took it and run with it. Now everywhere everyone is saying it needs 2 billion to break-even.

That’s his mistake then, he’ll maybe need to clarify or there will be headlines claiming it’s a flop. 
 

3 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I think this one of those cases where a quote requires a follow up question. In this case the only thing that makes sense to me is that Cameron was referring to Domestic gross not worldwide. It's well known that roughly $1 Billion has been set aside for the production of 4 Avatar movies. Let's assume Way of Water costs $300 million + $200 million for worldwide marketing. 

 

Total cost = $500 million 

 

If they hope to recover 100% of those costs from the domestic theatrical revenue alone then they would need around $1B. More realistically if WoW ends up 5th in Domestic gross it should easily break even on that portion alone when you factor revenue from marketing partnerships/merchandise and post release (PPV/DVD-Blu-4K/Rentals etc...). And then you have all of the international box office which makes up the majority of their revenue. 

 

The math does not work for a movie to require $2 Billion to break even, no studio on the planet would approve a production budget that is a multiple of the most expensive movies ever made, no chance. 

 

 

1	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avengers: Endgame	$858,373,000	2019
3	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$814,115,070	2021
4	Avatar	$785,221,649	2009
5	Top Gun: Maverick	$716,657,763	2022
6	Black Panther	$700,426,566	2018

 

 

 

 

 

Yeh, luckily we all know that it doesn’t need to make $2b to breakeven, but I’ve seen several memes and I noticed Grace Randolph has done a video on it, so no doubt she believes it 😂🤦🏻‍♂️

 

This tweet has 20k likes, for example

 

edit: 31k now, that’s spreading fast lol

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Krissykins

[adaros]

6 hours ago, SullyJake said:

China release guarantees highest grossing movie of all time. First movie's china gross is the equivelant of 4billion today

 

China release is shocking itself, but I think it's good to lower our expectations how much $ it will make there. From online reports around 50% cinemas in China are closed and zero covid restrictions are big thing. If anybody expects Endgame or close numbers in China they will be very disappointed.

Edited November 23, 2022 by adaros

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, adaros said:

China release is shocking itself, but I think it's good to lower our expectations how much $ it will make there. From online reports around 50% cinemas in China are closed and zero covid restrictions are big thing. If anybody expects Endgame or close numbers in China they will be very disappointed.

Yes, people need to know Covid-19 is still big thing over there in China. Lockdown is taking place could be anytime, anywhere. By mid-Dec I believe we only have half of the normal China's potential and 36 days later, WE2 will come to take over everything. 

[Sophia Jane]

For now I perdict China give Avatar 3B Yuan at Maxium

[IronJimbo]

All I'm willing to predict for China is that the screens they do it show it on will sell really damn well. I'll leave it to the China experts to figure out what that means in $$$