Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

you can point to anyone know that knew audiences would love Top Gun Maverick as much as they did?
 

 

So nobody then?  Gotcha!

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

So nobody then?  Gotcha!

Can you now point to the people who expect Avatar 2 to have extremely good word of mouth similar to the first movie?

Honestly if you act like it's unconceivable that A2 will have comparable word of mouth to the first movie directed by the same guy, it's kinda trolling.

Edited November 18, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Can you now point to the people who expect Avatar 2 to have extremely good word of mouth similar to the first movie?

Honestly if you act like it's unconceivable that A2 will have comparable word of mouth to the first movie directed by the same guy, it's kinda trolling.

I think his point is that everyone under-predicted TGM and using an outlier as a comp isn’t the best idea.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

I think his point is that everyone under-predicted TGM and using an outlier as a comp isn’t the best idea.

 

BOP severely underestimated Top Gun's WOM and legs, and they are doing the same again. Top Gun Maverick also happens to the be the highest grossing movie of the year and a sequel comparable to the Way of Water.

 

Do I think BOP were foolish for there TPM prediction? Nah, but they were still terribly wrong. Do I think they are foolish for their Avatar 2 prediction, completely.

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Can you know point to the people who expect Avatar 2 to have extremely good word of mouth similar to the first movie?

Honestly if you act like it's unconceivable that A2 will have comparable word of mouth to the first movie directed by the same guy, it's kinda trolling.

 

You were laughing at someone else's projections because they were way off.  My point is that everyone was! 

 

I think it's kind of impossible for Avatar 2 to have Avatar 1's word of mouth.   By virtue of being a sequel, there won't be that surprise factor of not knowing what you are getting yourself into.  

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

You were laughing at someone else's projections because they were way off.  My point is that everyone was!

Ok I understand mb

 

Quote

I think it's kind of impossible for Avatar 2 to have Avatar 1's word of mouth.   By virtue of being a sequel, there won't be that surprise factor of not knowing what you are getting yourself into.  

I just have to disagree on this, the sequel has lots of mystery and a loads of reasons to be curious.

 

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I just have to disagree on this, the sequel has lots of mystery and a loads of reasons to be curious.

 

I guess what I mean is that people are going to go specifically to see the mind-blowing visuals.  That's not going to be a surprise for anyone this time.

[M37]

30 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Top Gun Maverick also happens to the be the highest grossing movie of the year and a sequel comparable to the Way of Water.

No, its really not - TGM was a nostalgia hit, more similar to Jurassic World (another where did that come from OW and total). But that nostalgia sweet spot is ~20-25 years, not 13, which is basically near the bottom of the U curve of popularity

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, its really not - TGM was a nostalgia hit, more similar to Jurassic World (another where did that come from OW and total). But that nostalgia sweet spot is ~20-25 years, not 13, which is basically near the bottom of the U curve of popularity

what is this based on? This goes against what my guts says completely for how films have been doing as sequels after 13 years. Seems rather baseless honestly.

Off the top of my head.
Incredibles 2

The Force Awakens

Jurassic World

You sure this is a U curve?

Edited November 18, 2022 by IronJimbo

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what is this based on? This goes against what my guts says completely for how films have been doing as sequels after 13 years. Seems rather baseless honestly.

Off the top of my head.
Incredibles 2

The Force Awakens

Jurassic World

You sure this is a U curve?

Incredibles 2 gained from animation being more popular with older audiences

Force Awakens is viewed as a sequel to Return of the Jedi from 1983 rather than the first Star Wars movie since 2005

Jurassic World gives the audience what they've been asking for since 1993 where the park is open. 

Demand is based on the legacy of the latter two franchises rather than the most recent entry. 

[Reddroast]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

what is this based on? This goes against what my guts says completely for how films have been doing as sequels after 13 years. Seems rather baseless honestly.

Off the top of my head.
Incredibles 2

The Force Awakens

Jurassic World

You sure this is a U curve?

While that is true I think your forgetting that those films have been managed in a much better way then avatar has. 

[adaros]

 

3 HR 12 MIN | PG13

DEC 16, 2022

ACTION

LFG
Avatar: The Way of Water at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Incredibles 2 gained from animation being more popular with older audiences

Force Awakens is viewed as a sequel to Return of the Jedi from 1983 rather than the first Star Wars movie since 2005

Jurassic World gives the audience what they've been asking for since 1993 where the park is open. 

Demand is based on the legacy of the latter two franchises rather than the most recent entry. 

Yeah still not buying 13 years is the bottom of the Nostaglia U curve, or even that it's a U curve

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Incredibles 2 gained from animation being more popular with older audiences

Force Awakens is viewed as a sequel to Return of the Jedi from 1983 rather than the first Star Wars movie since 2005

Jurassic World gives the audience what they've been asking for since 1993 where the park is open. 

Demand is based on the legacy of the latter two franchises rather than the most recent entry. 

 

Not to mention people had been screaming for Incredibles 2 from the minute the first movie ended.  People never stopped wanting it and when they finally got it, they showed the fuck up.  

[hw64]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, its really not - TGM was a nostalgia hit, more similar to Jurassic World (another where did that come from OW and total). But that nostalgia sweet spot is ~20-25 years, not 13, which is basically near the bottom of the U curve of popularity

 

Relatively little of Top Gun: Maverick's success was due to the pure nostalgia element. That might have gotten it its initial success out of the gate, but it was the quality of the movie itself as an experience and the resultant word of mouth that carried it to the heights that it reached, not the nostalgia element.

 

I don't think Avatar 2 will be much of a nostalgia hit in the traditional sense, and it doesn't need to be, either: it just needs to be a good movie which gives people a great cinematic experience, which is a near-certainty. The only "nostalgia" that will come into play is not going to be for characters or brand, but for the cinematic experience that Avatar offered audiences.

[JustLurking]

Honestly I don't think TG is a nostalgia hit, maybe I just completely missed all the demand but I'd never seen anyone say "boy I sure miss top gun", and frankly speaking IMO original Top Gun was kind of a shitty film.

[Deuce66]

Mercedes-Benz - Avatar commercial

 

 

 

[Reed121]

Something I don’t understand is how Avatar 1 didn’t receive an A+ Cinemascore considering the legs it had.

Wouldn’t Avatar 2 need an A+ this time to beat Maverick domestically?

[Deuce66]

I don't think they'll be happy with this result....

 

[Tokugennumataka]

One record I see it beating is the all time Monday record (on 26 Dec).