Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Because you offer no rational explanation why that will happen!  

 

"I want it too!" is not a good reason. Neither is "The Chinese market is growing exponentially" (because it isn't anymore).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

have a look at the list,

now look at it again but pay close attention to the Year column

 

Avatar is the best performing film in Chinese cinema compared to market size.

 

My 800m prediction presupposes that it will be allowed extra time in cinema thanks to the environmental message. They had 4700 screens in China by the end of 2009, with not many 3d capable. Right now they have over 32000 screens which is 6.8x more, lots with imax/3d capability.

Edited January 5, 2017 by IronJimbo

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

 

have a look at the list,

 

now look at it again but pay close attention to the Year column

 

Avatar is the best performing film in Chinese cinema compared to market size.

 

My 800m prediction prepossesses that it will be allowed extra time in cinema thanks to the environmental message.

Yes, but it only did $205M there, a feat that recent movies top easily (JW, AoU, Zootopia, Monster Hunt). It'd have to make an increase over 300%, an impossible feat.

Edited January 5, 2017 by YourMother

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Yes, but it only did $205M there, a feat that recent movies top easily (JW, AoU, Zootopia, Monster Hunt).

 

dude come on, go look at the market size in 2009 then again for the films you just listed. It was the highest grossing film at the time aswell, saying only did is silly.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2017 by IronJimbo

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Yes, but it only did $205M there, a feat that recent movies top easily (JW, AoU, Zootopia, Monster Hunt). It'd have to make an increase over 300%, an impossible feat.

but the market is over 450% bigger now.

[YM!]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

dude come on, go look at the market size in 2009 then again for the films you just listed.

 

Still it'd need a 300% increase in the market, something no sequel has done in China, other than market size why would it make anywhere over $600M?

[75Live]

3 hours ago, Telemachos said:

I don't really care if it outgrosses the original or not, as long as I like it.

 

That's basically my take too since, to be nice, I'll say the first one did nothing for me.  So I just want it to be enjoyable for me when I'm watching.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

have a look at the list,

now look at it again but pay close attention to the Year column

 

Avatar is the best performing film in Chinese cinema compared to market size.

 

My 800m prediction presupposes that it will be allowed extra time in cinema thanks to the environmental message. They had 4700 screens in China by the end of 2009, with not many 3d capable. Right now they have over 32000 screens which is 6.8x more, lots with imax/3d capability.

???

 

Thought you were predicting 1b for China.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Porthos said:

???

 

Thought you were predicting 1b for China.

 

i am but i dont want to lose credibility, pls stop this

[YM!]

32 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

but the market is over 450% bigger now.

While the market has grown, it's impossible for a film in China to do over $700M especially with changing exchange rates and local films it could deal with. It'll likely have an increase along with a big OW, but have short legs, due to the hype, but not over $600M.

Edited January 5, 2017 by YourMother

[Eevin]

Avatar's OS performance is one of the most monumental achievements of any film ever. It helped spur China's rapid expansion from a middling market into the #2 market in the world, one that might have taken over the United States had it not started to plateau this year. Only three films have made Avatar's OS number worldwide. And no other film save Titanic comes close to those numbers, not even Furious 7 despite a kickass China performance and extremely solid numbers everywhere else. 

That being said, Avatar 2 is not going to increase from Avatar, just like SW8 is not going to increase from TFA. At some point, there is a limit on the level of hype people can have for something. 

Kudos to anyone who has the balls to think Avatar 2 is going to hit $3b+ worldwide, but there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that, especially not with these current exchange rates.

 

[vc2002]

2 hours ago, YourMother said:

For China, $300M is the minimum, while $550M is the maximum depending on exchange rates.

 

How exactly did you figure those numbers out?

[vc2002]

37 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

i am but i dont want to lose credibility, pls stop this

 

How the forum members react to this post

 

(BTW Tele starts at 01:00)

 

 

[lilmac]

8 hours ago, The Futurist said:

 

 

Please allow me :

 

- James Cameron is the Tony Stark of directors. He changed Hollywood forever.

- Avatar is an average/Mediocre film that only did well because of the 3d Novelty.

- Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar One, meaning flop.

- These movies will never get released because James Cameron is a lazy bum.

- Nobody cares about Avatar 2, Avatar left no footpring in pop culture.

- Avatar did way better than the Star Wars at the box office WW, hence nerd rage since 2009.

- James Cameron will James Cameron because he is James Cameron.

 

Wash Rince Repeat until December 2018 (2020?)

 

Best post of the day. 

[TomCruiseTop]

10 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Hey, just a tip: putting your sentences through a thesaurus doesn't automatically make you smarter.  Juuuuust saying.

 

Also, I have no idea how I was stating what you already stated.  I pointed out that just because Cameron sequels have increased amongst their predecessors before, that doesn't mean it'll happen twice, especially under completely different circumstances this time.

 

I will make sure to use simple words for you from now on. Would not want you to become confused. 

[Hatebox]

"“Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words? He thinks I don’t know the ten-dollar words. I know them all right. But there are older and simpler and better words, and those are the ones I use.” - Hemingway

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

"“Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words? He thinks I don’t know the ten-dollar words. I know them all right. But there are older and simpler and better words, and those are the ones I use.” - Hemingway

 

Pfft. Hemingway is not even the best American writer. Vonnegut and Steinbeck are way better dude. If we are talking simplicity then you should have at least quoted Orwell.

 

 

[Hatebox]

1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

 

Pfft. Hemingway is not even the best American writer. Vonnegut and Steinbeck are way better dude. If we are talking simplicity then you should have at least quoted Orwell.

 

 

I guess someone not being the best writer of an entire nation ever does render their point totally invalid.

[TomCruiseTop]

1 minute ago, Hatebox said:

 

I guess someone not being the best writer of an entire nation ever does render their point totally invalid.

 

I only value the opinion of the absolute best - which is why I follow Jim's word as law. 

[Hatebox]

2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

 

I only value the opinion of the absolute best - which is why I follow Jim's word as law. 

 

I know you're fucking around at this point, but now I think of it: Cameron is much like Hemingway in that his form stems from an acute understanding of functionality. At the heart of his films is an airtight story — a rare attribute in this day and age — and that's what keeps people coming back.

[peludo]

7 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

Exchange rates right now aren't nearly as favorable as they were in '09. I think @peludo had mocked up a rough estimate of what AVATAR might make today, in key markets. It came in fairly close to what TFA made, if I recall. (Not to start that old fight, just offering it as comparison). In which case, A2 could do what you predict in terms of ticket sales and still come up short. China, the UK, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, Spain, Russia.... these were all huge markets for AVATAR and it's a huge question mark as to whether a blockbuster -- even a Cameron blockbuster -- can reach those heights. With Europe and Russia in particular, those markets have absolutely cratered since '09. I'm not saying it's absolutely impossible for a movie to overcome that, but it's certainly far from an automatic conclusion.

@Jason has become a better source than me for this kind of calculations

 

Anyway, I always use an easy and real example to show the damage that ER would have made today to Avatar:

 

The film grossed €77,032,767 in Spain. The reported figure in dollars is $111,967,209 (Dec 2009 + Special edition). That means that ER for the film was 1.4535. Today the dollar/euro change is 1.05681. That implies that the €77m are today $81,408,999. Just in Spain, Avatar would had grossed $30m less or a 27% drop.

 

You can apply the same to the whole Eurozone, what includes another big markets like France, Germany or Italy.

 

And as @Telemachos says, other currencies of very big markets (Russian Ruble, Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso) have dropped even more than Euro.

 

To repeat what Avatar did, you need an enormous boost from China. But even making $800m in China will not guarantee to repeat the $2b OS figure. A2 should repeat LOCALLY the results of the first part everywhere to achieve that.

 

Never say never, but today and unless the film amazes and surprises again, to repeat results is, IMHO, highly unlikely.