Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[TomCruiseTop]

24 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Delusional gawd awful analysis for China. Avatar 2 won't even beat Wolf Warrior 2 imo in China. An original with no history behind it in Today's market 600 is very generous.

Reminder - this post alone is another m on the BO. 

[cdsacken]

It's possible Avatar 2 might beat wolf warrior 2....might but it's far from a guarantee. 1 billion could happen but far from a lock .

 

Some just seem detached from reality. I'm on board with it beating End Game as well so troll as much as you like.

Edited May 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It's possible Avatar 2 might beat wolf warrior 2....might but it's far from a guarantee. 1 billion could happen but far from a lock .

 

Some just seem detached from reality. I'm on board with it beating End Game as well so troll as much as you like.

Why don't you go ahead and list all the possible scenarios, I'll be in the corner waiting for the heat death of the universe. 

[cdsacken]

Worst case : under End Game

Middle : Under Wolf Warrior 2 but above End Game

Best 1 billion give or take 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Worst case : under End Game

Middle : Under Wolf Warrior 2 but above End Game

Best 1 billion give or take 

Hello cdsackers. Well I think Avatar 2 can actually cross 1.2 b in China. On the.medium side 950m in China.

Worst case scenario for me is under Titanic. But the best case scenario is doubling the worldwide gross of endgame or Titanic.

 

What is E.g looking at in China. Around 600m USD?

 

[cdsacken]

600 minimum. At 510 million right now with a lot of big days left this week. Probably 630-670. 650 average if weekend goes well.

 

Sky rocketing past will warrior 2 doesn't seem average imo anywhere. 

Either way I imagine it will be absolutely nuts like End Game but popular in smaller cities too.

 

I think assuming it does amazing in Europe Avatar 2 takes the WW crown back from End Game but no guarantee. It's going to need to be near perfect.

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Delusional gawd awful analysis for China. Avatar 2 won't even beat Wolf Warrior 2 imo in China. An original with no history behind it in Today's market 600 is very generous.

That's funny, there are multiple things here that prevent me from even comprehending what you're saying.

1. When I try to gauge what Avatar would have done in China, when did I talk about Avatar 2? (Are you conflating the two films?). All I did, was trying to guess what Avatar could have done in today's Chinese market, which is 10X bigger than when Avatar was released, and Avatar earned 200M back in early 2010, tripling 2012's record gross. I conservatively said that Avatar would have grossed at least comparable to Wolf Warriors 2 in 2019, that's a really safe estimate because WW2 isn't even as big was Avatar was, and 2019 is two more years of rapid growth with inflation, and more importantly, Avatar would have the 3D and premium showing advantage against WW2. So grossing $850M in 2019 for Avatar would be much less ticket sold than WW2, hence the "conservative" estimate.

I didn't say anything about what Avatar 2 would do in China in that post. I really don't know.

 

2. Are you saying Avatar 2 is an original with no history behind it, you do realize it's the sequel to one of the biggest films in history right?

 

3. An original film doing 600M in China is very possible in today's market (not that Avatar 2 is an original film). The Wandering Earth is based on a book, however it's so obscure that it might as well be original, it's totally different from the book anyway and 99% of Chinese people haven't read the book.

You do realize that before Wolf warriors 2 came along, many Chinese film that achieve historical height back then were "original films" right?  The Mermaid, Monster Hunt, Avatar etc.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NCsoft]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Worst case : under End Game

Middle : Under Wolf Warrior 2 but above End Game

Best 1 billion give or take 

You see, you and I don't disagree on this at all.

I'm not an expert in Chinese market and I don't pretend to know what Avatar 2 would do in China. Unlike Avatar, we don't have a historic run to gauge what it could have done in today's market.

 

However, the range that you give is pretty similar to mine.

I think Avatar 2 earning about $600 is a pessimistic scenario, 800M to 900M Normal scenerio and 1-1.2B optimistic scenario. Depending on WOM, and whether it get simultaneous release. 

Edited May 2, 2019 by NCsoft

[NCsoft]

44 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

Sky rocketing past will warrior 2 doesn't seem average imo anywhere. 

Either way I imagine it will be absolutely nuts like End Game but popular in smaller cities too.

 

I have a slighty more conservative view than Kal, I suppose. I think 800 to 900M in China is a medium scenario. So that's about the same gross as WW2 but would be in late 2020 to early 2021. Remember the Chinese market can increase by quite a lot in 3-4 years, WW2 got $850M back in 2017, also Avatar 2 no doubt will have more expensive average ticket due to premium showings and 3D taking a much bigger ratio.

 

Edited May 2, 2019 by NCsoft

[NCsoft]

53 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

 Worst case scenario for me is under Titanic. But the best case scenario is doubling the worldwide gross of endgame or Titanic.

  

Haha, I hope you mean Titanic WW Kal, because if Avatar 2 grosses less than Titanic in China, that would be a catastrophic disaster, I might get depression 😅

Edited May 2, 2019 by NCsoft

[HouseOfTheSun]

8 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Only death can stop me. 

 

Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery. It's nice to see that Jim Gang actually does have an impact around here, no matter how hard people try to pretend it doesn't. 

Simply a comparison to the king of the box office. It is the best way to compare don’t you think?

[Valonqar]

@JamesCameronScholar is on fire.

[doublejack]

I think any speculation about what kind of numbers Avatar 2 will pull is premature at this point. We have so little to go on - a release date, and the run of Avatar 1. That's simply not enough to project anything. I think we need a trailer and corresponding hype measurables to really have a clue. Otherwise it is just fanboi wars.

 

We can dig up examples that give hope for Jim fans. Incredibles and Incredibles 2 is one. There are also plenty of examples that point to Avatar 2 doing worse than the first, like AIW and Alice Through the Looking Glass. There is simply no way to know how this will play out, yet. We know absolutely nothing about the quality of the film and that is a very large factor.

 

That said, there is something we can speculate on. What would a max weekend look like for Avatar 2? Let's assume for a minute that Endgame is a virtual max capacity situation. I'm trying to find a breakdown of the domestic 3D share, which I haven't come across yet, but I did find a source that globally it was about 45% / 540M of the 1.2B OW. For now I'll go with 45%. If we assume that Avatar 2 will have a similar 3D share as the original, which was 80%, then we're looking at a max of almost exactly 200M OW in today's dollars. The 3D share would be 160.65M which is what I'm approximating Endgame pulled in for 3D.

 

Would more people see Avatar in 2D if that's all that is available? I'm thinking no, 3D was a huge, massive part of the appeal. Will there be more 3D capacity in late 2020? Maybe. Things are trending away from the format, though.

 

Avatar never even did 80M in a weekend, so maybe that is a reasonable ceiling. It is something to debate.

 

Note that I'm not saying Avatar 2 will have a 200M OW domestically. This is all just an exercise in calculating a theoretical maximum given a handful of assumptions.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Haha, I hope you mean Titanic WW Kal, because if Avatar 2 grosses less than Titanic in China, that would be a catastrophic disaster, I might get depression 😅

Lol. No worries Ncsoft I meant worldwide indeed. Heh...And that would be the same for me as well, but that scenario won't happen. 😉

[Deuce66]

I think that first teaser or trailer for A2 will go a long way in determining how hot or not the public demand is for the sequel(s). 

 

As for Endgame, I keep underestimating the dailies so I'm going to the other side now, very good odds that it passes Titanic if not this weekend then before next Thursday. AVATAR is now in play. 

 

saw this over at Blu-Ray.com thought it was pretty funny....

 

 

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

I think that first teaser or trailer for A2 will go a long way in determining how hot or not the public demand is for the sequel(s). 

 

As for Endgame, I keep underestimating the dailies so I'm going to the other side now, very good odds that it passes Titanic if not this weekend then before next Thursday. AVATAR is now in play. 

 

saw this over at Blu-Ray.com thought it was pretty funny....

 

 

It's fun, we may have update that gif come next year 

[Sheldon Cr]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

It's fun, we may have update that gif come next year 

Indeed Ncsoft. Heck if Eg dont hold well. It may not get pass Avatar 1😉

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

It's fun, we may have update that gif come next year 

 

That gif. would be even funnier if it was Sam Worthington on the left, Chris Evans was one of three finalists for the role of Jake in Avatar. Everything turned out a-ok for him, understatement of the year I'm sure. 

 

 

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Indeed Ncsoft. Heck if Eg dont hold well. It may not get pass Avatar 1😉

I conceded a few days ago that it will pass Avatar, in the event that it doesn't it'll be a nice surprise!

 

[Sheldon Cr]

20 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I conceded a few days ago that it will pass Avatar, in the event that it doesn't it'll be a nice surprise!

 

We just need a little drop off on the domestic or OS. We haven't adjourned yet vs Eg😂. It will be the shortest reign for a we champ if it happens. Lol Juggernaut 2020 looks to destroy everything and set a standard only AVTR 3 may achieve.