Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[WittyUsername]

Again, I’m not sure what reason there would be to assume another delay will happen at this point. This thing has been in post-production for a pretty long time at this point and we’re closer to it’s release now than we were at any other point. 

[commendable]

So any idea whats actually gonna draw people to this movie other than nostalgia
I hope the technical aspect is super good. Imagine this comes out alongside aquaman and it just blows it out of the water (in terms of underwater filming)

[AniNate]

Only thing that may delay it again is more bad virus surges. Just gotta hope that doesn't happen.

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Only thing that may delay it again is more bad virus surges. Just gotta hope that doesn't happen.

It'll have been over 2 and a half years by that point. This crap can't go on forever, can it?

[commendable]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

It'll have been over 2 and a half years by that point. This crap can't go on forever, can it?

Yes because its a virus and it can do whatever it wants

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, commendable said:

Yes because its a virus and it can do whatever it wants

Yeah, but at some point we just gotta accept it and go back to normal.

[interiorgatordecorator]

So since this thread apparently also doubles as the economic-thread, I might as well ask

 

Keep in mind i'm not an econ guy

 

If, assuming its not a Biden smoke-screen, there's a war (or something resembling one) in Europe and Russia cuts of Europe of an important part of its energy supply, causing lots of inflation; and other types of war-related negative economic effects...

 

Won't that all cause the euro to depreciate in comparison to the dollar, so that when Avatar 2 releases it'll have to deal with a not-ideal euro-to-usd exchange rate, thus really hurting its gross in what could be its biggest territory (EU taken as one)?

 

What guarantees (if any) do we that whatever problems the EU ends up having don't end up being much bigger (exchange-rate wise) than what the USA has in regards to inflation?

 

 

 

 

 

[Lothar]

At this point I don't see any reason why should A2 be delayed.

 

Aquabro is competely toasted if it's going against the king of Alpha Centuari System.

[Tarintino]

11 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

So since this thread apparently also doubles as the economic-thread, I might as well ask

 

Keep in mind i'm not an econ guy

 

If, assuming its not a Biden smoke-screen, there's a war (or something resembling one) in Europe and Russia cuts of Europe of an important part of its energy supply, causing lots of inflation; and other types of war-related negative economic effects...

 

Won't that all cause the euro to depreciate in comparison to the dollar, so that when Avatar 2 releases it'll have to deal with a not-ideal euro-to-usd exchange rate, thus really hurting its gross in what could be its biggest territory (EU taken as one)?

 

What guarantees (if any) do we that whatever problems the EU ends up having don't end up being much bigger (exchange-rate wise) than what the USA has in regards to inflation?

 

 

 

 

 

There are no gurantees. All countries are going through an inflation crises brought on by the pandemic. What will really impact the euro is the ECB's current decision not to introduce a rate hike in 2022, something the FED and BOA are doing. This will likely see the Euro continue to depreciate for this year which could hurt Avatar. What it loses in Europe will be made up in China alone though

[dudalb]

On 2/13/2022 at 4:54 AM, Tarintino said:

There are no gurantees. All countries are going through an inflation crises brought on by the pandemic. What will really impact the euro is the ECB's current decision not to introduce a rate hike in 2022, something the FED and BOA are doing. This will likely see the Euro continue to depreciate for this year which could hurt Avatar. What it loses in Europe will be made up in China alone though

If it gets a China release. Disney and China have a feud going at the moment. Other then that dictatorships suck, nothing it sure here.

[BruiseCruise]

17 minutes ago, dudalb said:

If it gets a China release. Disney and China have a feud going at the moment. Other then that dictatorships suck, nothing it sure here.

Marvel and china have a feud*

Jungle Cruise and Encanto did get releases in China albeit a bit later than everywhere else whereas MCU stuff never got any release

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

Marvel and china have a feud*

Jungle Cruise and Encanto did get releases in China albeit a bit later than everywhere else whereas MCU stuff never got any release

That is the industry gossip. DIsney did something to offend Xi.

The feud started supposdedly last summer, and the contracts had been signed for JC and Encarto.

Be interestting to see what happens. 

But no doubt China has become very touchy about what Western movies it lets in, and something in Avatar 2 might well offend the CCP.

 

[WittyUsername]

Just now, dudalb said:

That is the industry gossip. DIsney did something to offend Xi.

The feud started supposdedly last summer, and the contracts had been signed for JC and Encarto.

Be interestting to see what happens. 

But no doubt China has become very touchy about what Western movies it lets in, and something in Avatar 2 might well offend the CCP.

 

If Encanto managed to get released in China, that would suggest that the Chinese government’s beef is specifically with Marvel, rather than Disney as a whole. Maybe things will change in 10 months, but as of this moment, there’s no reason to assume that this movie would get banned in China.

[Tarintino]

8 hours ago, dudalb said:

That is the industry gossip. DIsney did something to offend Xi.

The feud started supposdedly last summer, and the contracts had been signed for JC and Encarto.

Be interestting to see what happens. 

But no doubt China has become very touchy about what Western movies it lets in, and something in Avatar 2 might well offend the CCP.

 

I read that China have it out for Marvel. Where Americans think its progressive making films like Shang Chi, apparently they see it as stereotyping. It's like, "ah we will give them a martial arts movie, they love that shit"

 

We saw a lot of chinese landmarks and influence in Avatar and the hype there for a sequel would make it very difficult for the goverment to simply block.

[Eric Duncan]

 

[BruiseCruise]

RIP

[Tarintino]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/279111/number-of-cinema-screens-in-china/

 

Avatar made 200m on just 4700 screens. There is now 82000, thats a 17x increase. Avengers was only making 86m in 2012, its not so loved sequel, AOU managed to triple that gross as the theatre count rose from 13000 to 31000. By the time we hit 69000, Endgame is making 650m.

 

Looking at the rate of increase in china and how all hollywood blocbuster grosses responded, I have a very hard time seeing Avatar gross anything under 1b there, making 2b a very unlikely worldwide floor

 

If James Cameron delivers, as his sequel track record would suggest, then the height this can reach is truly bonkers. As stupid as it sounds, a 2b China gross is not impossible. Domestically, it has the best release slot of the year and it will open high, making a 800m+ likely. 

 

In the last 10 years we can see the shift in what people watch at the theatres. Even though attendance has dropped for lower budget films, we can see that attendance for big budget franchises is higher than ever. 

 

Floor: 2b (has to be terrible)

 

Ceiling 4.7b (has to be astonishing)

 

My prediction: 
900m domestic 
1.4b china
1.5b OS
3.8b total.

 

I'm guessing he delivers 

 

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

13 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

My prediction: 
900m domestic 
1.4b china
1.5b OS
3.8b total.

I tried to predict the Global Debut 

$400M : DOM

$550M : MLC

$900M : OS

== {$1850M} ==

 

There is a chance of $2000M global Debut... Though, it largely depends on simultaneous /same day release in Mainland China!! Even if it doesn't make big debut, we are likely to see another Titanic run ｡◕‿◕｡

[Brainbug]

18 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

Floor: 2b (has to be terrible)

Ceiling 4.7b (has to be astonishing)

My prediction: 
900m domestic 
1.4b china
1.5b OS
3.8b total.

 

... Just please dont be disappointed if it settles with a pathetic 2,1 Billion. This reminds me of the more lunatic avatar predictions.

 

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I tried to predict the Global Debut 

$400M : DOM

$550M : MLC

$900M : OS

== {$1850M} ==

 

There is a chance of $2000M global Debut... Though, it largely depends on simultaneous /same day release in Mainland China!! Even if it doesn't make big debut, we are likely to see another Titanic run ｡◕‿◕｡

 

WTF

 

Embraced lunacy.

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I tried to predict the Global Debut 

$400M : DOM

$550M : MLC

$900M : OS

== {$1850M} ==

 

There is a chance of $2000M global Debut... Though, it largely depends on simultaneous /same day release in Mainland China!! Even if it doesn't make big debut, we are likely to see another Titanic run ｡◕‿◕｡

 

Those numbers scare, im not ready to consider anything over 3.5 billion before the economy goes kapuut

 

So about that domestic (to make it easy) debut, are those numbers even possible?

If I remember correctly Endgame was already struggling with packed theaters and that was "only" 350 million and it had a "luxury" of having 2D screens, something avatar 2 will not have (I assume 3D could represent 90% of the ow). 

 

If we assume only 3d showings, what's the maximum possible domestic ow?

 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator