Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You know, I'm doubting $200m dom for TSLOP2.

Starting to seem possible. Would be an unprecedented drop for one of these first sequels to a big animated hit. Even more so for one that had such good reception from its target audience (3.5x multi off a huge 100+ OW was crazy impressive for SLOP).

 

i think if it happens it will be confirmation that families are saving for TS4 and TLK and simply can’t afford three family outings to the movies in a month en masse.

Edited June 4, 2019 by MovieMan89

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Starting to seem possible. Would be an unprecedented drop for one of these first sequels to a big animated hit.

it's because the first movie is just a feature length animated version of funny pet videos that middle aged ladies share on facebook. nothing about that franchise has actually stuck with people. Louis CK dog and Kevin Hart bunny aren't exactly Woody and Buzz or even a Gru and his minion buddies.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

it's because the first movie is just a feature length animated version of funny pet videos that middle aged ladies share on facebook. nothing about that franchise has actually stuck with people. Louis CK dog and Kevin Hart bunny aren't exactly Woody and Buzz or even a Gru and his minion buddies.

See my edited post. The first had an absolutely insane multi for such a huge opening. Audiences loved it. 

[CoolioD1]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

See my edited post. The first had an absolutely insane multi for such a huge opening. Audiences loved it. 

but it hasn't stuck with people, was my point. movies doing well in the cinema and then not having a large cultural footprint afterwards, happens all the time.

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's because the first movie is just a feature length animated version of funny pet videos that middle aged ladies share on facebook. nothing about that franchise has actually stuck with people. Louis CK dog and Kevin Hart bunny aren't exactly Woody and Buzz or even a Gru and his minion buddies.

It definitely feels like one of the fastest big hits to leave the pop culture zeitgeist. At least Alice in Wonderland has the other live-action remakes to fall back on. Trolls feels like it has more relevance to kids and the public than SLOP, and that made like two thirds less money.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

but it hasn't stuck with people, was my point. movies doing well in the cinema and then not having a large cultural footprint afterwards, happens all the time.

Except this falling below 200 isn’t something that happens all the time. LEGO 2 would be the only precedent for such a drop for a big first animated sequel. And even that can be better explained by such a long gap and LEGO Batman acting as the first pseudo sequel. I still think this would have to be a case of too many family juggernauts this summer as some of us having been mentioning for a year.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Except this falling below 200 isn’t something that happens all the time. LEGO 2 would be the only precedent for such a drop for a big first animated sequel. And even that can be better explained by such a long gap and LEGO Batman acting as the first pseudo sequel. I still think this would have to be a case of too many family juggernauts this summer as some of us having been mentioning for a year.

i was just talking movies in general but it's not surprising if it starts happening with animated movies more often now. #peakcontent in the 2010s just means a lot of stuff is gonna start fading faster. 

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I love The Incredibles; but Toy Story has always been a more popular franchise.

200 Million sounds too high, but would not be surprised if it opened better then Icredible 2.

Opened Better Than Incredibles 2 Means $185 M+ OW ... Still Massive Start .. Close to $200 M ... 

 

 

[dudalb]

50 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i was just talking movies in general but it's not surprising if it starts happening with animated movies more often now. #peakcontent in the 2010s just means a lot of stuff is gonna start fading faster. 

When you have a new animated movie every month..sometimed more then one in a month..instead of just 4 or 5 a year it's going to be harder to make an impression.

The costs of animation have gone down...you can now do a computer animated film on a modest budget (thoughk of course, you can still spend a massive amount on a animated film)  and that has led to the market being flooded.

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

oh ok. can see 125+ then.

I'm expecting quite a bit higher for Frozen II. I think November OW record is in play given the strong trailer views and reception. Outside of Frozen II, November is very weak this year. By the time of its release, I think audiences will be itching for a major event film. There will also be a long gap since the last major animated film (DreamWorks' Abominable in September), further increasing pent-up demand. 

[a2k]

135 * 3.2 = 432 or less for TS4 imo

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

I'm expecting quite a bit higher for Frozen II. I think November OW record is in play given the strong trailer views and reception. Outside of Frozen II, November is very weak this year. By the time of its release, I think audiences will be itching for a major event film. There will also be a long gap since the last major animated film (DreamWorks' Abominable in September), further increasing pent-up demand. 

It will be a complete monster given the lack of direct competition before or after it. 

[cannastop]

10 hours ago, dudalb said:

When you have a new animated movie every month..sometimed more then one in a month..instead of just 4 or 5 a year it's going to be harder to make an impression.

The costs of animation have gone down...you can now do a computer animated film on a modest budget (thoughk of course, you can still spend a massive amount on a animated film)  and that has led to the market being flooded.

How recent is this new development? It's been the story for the past 10 years, no?

[MCKillswitch123]

18 hours ago, a2k said:

like most thanksgiving releases it will open on wed. so after burning off demand on wed and thu won't do 200 ow. even for the 5-day to do that is more than doubling frozen's 5-day.

Frozen II is a Friday opener. Opens on the weekend before Thanksgiving.

18 hours ago, dudalb said:

I love The Incredibles; but Toy Story has always been a more popular franchise.

200 Million sounds too high, but would not be surprised if it opened better then Icredible 2.

I thought Incredibles wasn't more popular than Finding Nemo either, and it took until the last month or two until I finally agreed with the animation OW record stanners, and even then I didn't believe I2 would beat Finding Dory.

 

I could reluctantly see 150M for TS4. 200? Is Toy Story really THAT popular that a completely unasked for sequel that feels more like a spin-off than anything can hit 200? Nah. I2 and Dory had legit buzz that never felt palpable for TS4.

[keysersoze123]

16 hours ago, a2k said:

135 * 3.2 = 432 or less for TS4 imo

Multi is possible. But OW looks good for 150m+. Everything is aligned for it as its following a month of under performers. PS is still very good.

[ThomasNicole]

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[Deja23]