Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[CJohn]

I would Gif. battle you but you're a bit too... irrelevant.

I don't battle irrelevant people. Waste of time.

Now sit down.

[AndyLL]

What have you done with the real BKB!? your being too humble.

 

He forgot to mention that he confiscated the blunt and had it on his break. 

[Dementeleus]

There are really only 3 creature feature films recent enough to compare Godzilla to. Super 8, Pacific Rim, and Cloverfield. The multis for those were 3.6x, 2.75x, and 2x respectively. Godzilla is going to finish with a multi barely above Cloverfield, and most people agreed at the time that had awful WOM. So how then does Godzilla not have bad WOM?

 

I'm saying we tend to micro-focus on WOM when (a) it can be hard to nail down definitively as soon as it gets mixed and ( this is missing some broader points. If you want to argue that GODZILLA did not successfully branch out beyond its core demo, then I agree. But that's not quite the same thing.

[Walt Disney]

what do you mean by that? that it was supposed to have bigger attendance than x-2/x-3? i've never seen anyone claim that. fact is that it revived a dying franchise, gotten awesome reviews, and increased in a huge way over FC/Wolverine, acting like it's a failure doesn't make any sense.

 

Not bigger, but similar.

 

Edit: X2 adjusts to between $289-$290M. It should have gotten closer to that number than it will.

Edited May 31, 2014 by Walt Disney

[rockNrollaDIM]

I would Gif. battle you but you're a bit too... irrelevant.

I don't battle irrelevant people. Waste of time.

Now sit down.

 

[Deep Wang]

The characters in Godzilla sucked. That was he fatal flaw

 

Have you seen any Godzilla movie ever?

 

With the exception of the '54 original(even then, they aren't exactly memorable), they all have shitty characters and not a whole lot of Godzilla.

[MovieMan89]

Honestly, with May being so bleak in terms of a huge blockbuster, I think the door was wide open for Godzilla to just be massive if it had lived up to the hype. 300 could have happened with that OW. But whether the defenders of it want to accept it or not, the fact is a large chunk (I would say the majority) were disappointed with it.

[Dementeleus]

Is it? I won't be paying $14 to watch Godzilla's sequel on opening weekend. I'm not alone in that feeling about the first movie. The next one will deal with some fallout from that first movie, namely the misleading marketing campaign that successfully managed to get such a big opening weekend. I don't think WB is happy with the legs at all, in particular what it means for the next movie.

 

I'm saying I think you're speaking from your personal reaction to the movie. In terms of legs, since WB gets a larger percentage of the initial gross, why should studios care whether their movie makes, say, 70% of its gross in the first three weeks compared to 90%? They're the ones who're pushing the frontloaded mania to begin with.

[Claire of Themyscira]

I would Gif. battle you but you're a bit too... irrelevant.

I don't battle irrelevant people. Waste of time.

Now sit down.

Irrelevant?

 

[TalismanRing]

Perhaps, if they had gone with a bigger scale. I dunno if expectations for scale came from fans or from the studio, though. If it came from fans, then the "supposed" doesn't really make sense, as it is very subjective.

 

I still think it is a unique film - there is nothing like it in the comic book movie genre (and that is objective). But maybe its unique concept just wasn't enough, without that bigger scale. More restraint, better character-focused drama is good for some fans and more devoted cinema-goers, but for the GA, the lack of huge spectacle means less interest in repeat viewings. As someone else said, even if the movie is well-liked, without the scope, people may simply skip repeat viewings in cinemas, or giving recommendations such as "it's great, but it's not cinema must-see; you'll enjoy it on bluray as well:"...

 

Interesting since when I saw the trailer for this in front of Godzilla at the end it shrunk the screen and there was - a film this big needs to be seen at the movies not in front of your couch - add on by Fox. 

[redfirebird2008]

I'm saying I think you're speaking from your personal reaction to the movie. In terms of legs, since WB gets a larger percentage of the initial gross, why should studios care whether their movie makes, say, 70% of its gross in the first three weeks compared to 90%? They're the ones who're pushing the frontloaded mania to begin with.

 

So you think the sequel is going to open just as well, if not better than the 2014 film? You think everyone except me loved it? Your favorite franchise (LOTR/Hobbit) just went through this exact same thing. Surely you understand what is more likely to happen with the sequel. Smaller opening and total.

Edited May 31, 2014 by redfirebird2008

[#ED]

This thread has been a Godzilla vs DOFP since this morning and it's getting boring.

[The Panda]

I wish they hadn't told the origins through short flashbacks, or showed all of the origin parts in the trailer. They're the only parts with emotion, they were just to eager to get to the action.

[BadAtGender]

The moment Avengers 2 opens less than The First Avengers.

 

 

I think the range is 195-215, so there's a chance of that, yeah.

 

Unless you mean the moment Avengers 2 opens less than The First Avenger. That would be stunning.

[Last Man Standing]

Not bigger, but similar.

 

if anyone predicted anything like that, i haven't seen it. from what i remember most people had very little faith in the film, and in Singer, when it was announced. of course with the hype come the ever changing goal posts, and suddenly a film is a failure for not achieving a goal no-one even thought possible before.

[MovieMan89]

I'm saying we tend to micro-focus on WOM when (a) it can be hard to nail down definitively as soon as it gets mixed and ( this is missing some broader points. If you want to argue that GODZILLA did not successfully branch out beyond its core demo, then I agree. But that's not quite the same thing.

You're still cleverly dodging my question though Tele. You argued the multi is just the nature of the genre, yet 2 of the 3 recent creature feature films had fairly strong multis. If Coverfield was widely agreed to have poor WOM and Godzilla is getting roughly the same multi, then what does that say? At best it says Godzilla's WOM was mixed. At best.

[a2k]

This thread has been a Godzilla vs DOFP since this morning and it's getting boring.

you should post a question. i'll make it interesting.

[#ED]

I think the range is 195-215, so there's a chance of that, yeah.

 

Unless you mean the moment Avengers 2 opens less than The First Avenger. That would be stunning.

 

LOL. I mean't TA.

 

I could easily see TA2 opening to about 198M or so. I assume this time around it won't be so 3D heavy.

 

My current prediction is

202M OW/ 590M DOM / 1B OS/ 1.6B WW Total

[Biggestgeekever]

Perhaps, if they had gone with a bigger scale. I dunno if expectations for scale came from fans or from the studio, though. If it came from fans, then the "supposed" doesn't really make sense, as it is very subjective.

 

I still think it is a unique film - there is nothing like it in the comic book movie genre (and that is objective). But maybe its unique concept just wasn't enough, without that bigger scale. More restraint, better character-focused drama is good for some fans and more devoted cinema-goers, but for the GA, the lack of huge spectacle means less interest in repeat viewings. As someone else said, even if the movie is well-liked, without the scope, people may simply skip repeat viewings in cinemas, or giving recommendations such as "it's great, but it's not cinema must-see; you'll enjoy it on bluray as well:"...

It's interesting you talk about the scale, because it's certainly something that I thought Fox screwed up with the marketing later on compared to the second trailer, which I believe is the best of the bunch:

 

 

Later marketing that began to put more emphasis on Sentinels was when it felt less like the epic movie that the Last Stand was pushed like.. It's why I dropped my prediction from $100+m OW to $90m. Though as you've mentioned, the late-game marketing was more faithful to the actual film.

[redfirebird2008]

I could easily see TA2 opening to about 198M or so. I assume this time around it won't be so 3D heavy.

 

 

 

Will be interesting to see what the theaters do with it. They could easily switch back to their old policy of 90% 3D shows and it would still sell out pretty much every show for the weekend. That's the route to go if they want the biggest bang for their buck.