The Chasmmi "Go ahead...make my day" SOTM 7/7.1 (I'm good with calculations)

[bcf26]

ABSTAIN

[chasmmi]

ok well now its just kindergarten easy

[4815162342]

abstain for now

[iceroll]

The TF4 SOTM 7.1 is still ridiculously hard IMO Two territories and 7% accurate...

[#ED]

Abstain.

[Empire]

Abstain.

[Olive]

1)  22 Jump Street    (Previous Film: 21 Jump Street 138,447,667) 123%2)  How to Train Your Dragon 2    (Previous Film: 217,581,231) 3)  Transformers: Age of Extinction   (Previous Film: 352,390,543)  79.5%4)  Dawn Of the Planet of the Apes   (Previous Film: 176,760,185) 116%5)  Planes: Fire and Rescue    (Previous Film: 90,288,712)  117%6)  The Purge Anarchy  (Previous Film: 64,473,115)

Edited June 5, 2014 by Olive Maximoff

[Jake Gittes]

I don't think it's that hard to get at least 7k points here, which is more than you get for abstaining.

 

Because we're dealing with percentages, the bigger the gross of the previous film, the better your chances. Take TF4. Let's say you predict it to finish with 85% of TF3 which would put the gross at 299.5m. This means you get 7k as long as the movie makes between 75% and 95% of TF3, aka between 264.3m and 334.7m. You really think you can't predict a 70 million range for TF4?

[Plain Old Tele]

For now:

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2 - 134%

Transformers: Age of Extinction - 85%

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 116.5%

 

Abstain on everything else.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Telemachos

[grim22]

I don't think it's that hard to get at least 7k points here, which is more than you get for abstaining.

 

Because we're dealing with percentages, the bigger the gross of the previous film, the better your chances. Take TF4. Let's say you predict it to finish with 85% of TF3 which would put the gross at 299.5m. This means you get 7k as long as the movie makes between 75% and 95% of TF3, aka between 264.3m and 334.7m. You really think you can't predict a 70 million range for TF4?

 

Is it within 75% and 95% or is it if we predict 85% i.e. 299.5M, then it is 10% of our prediction i.e. 269.5 and 329.5 or is it as Jake mentioned, 10% normally i.e. 264.3 to 334.7?

 

If I think 22JS will do 170M (for example), i.e. 122.3%, is my error range from 112.3% to 132.3% i.e. 155.6M to 183.4M, or is it 10% of my prediction i.e, from 110% to 135% which would be 152M to 188M?

 

How are we interpreting the question, since it seems like there are 2 different ways to. And with the numbers we are working with that is easily a 5M swing both ways.

Edited June 2, 2014 by grim22

[chasmmi]

It's all about percentages.

 

SO if you predict Film A will make 100% of what it's previous version made, then a 10% margin for error means the film making anything from 90% to 110% of its previous installment scores you points.

 

Grosses mean nothing, its all about the percentages.

[grim22]

It's all about percentages.

 

SO if you predict Film A will make 100% of what it's previous version made, then a 10% margin for error means the film making anything from 90% to 110% of its previous installment scores you points.

 

Grosses mean nothing, its all about the percentages.

 

So if I say 125%, then it is between 115-135% and not between 112.5-137.5%. Just wanted to confirm that.

[kitik]

Is it within 75% and 95% or is it if we predict 85% i.e. 299.5M, then it is 10% of our prediction i.e. 269.5 and 329.5 or is it as Jake mentioned, 10% normally i.e. 264.3 to 334.7?

 

If I think 22JS will do 170M (for example), i.e. 122.3%, is my error range from 112.3% to 132.3% i.e. 155.6M to 183.4M, or is it 10% of my prediction i.e, from 110% to 135% which would be 152M to 188M?

 

How are we interpreting the question, since it seems like there are 2 different ways to. And with the numbers we are working with that is easily a 5M swing both ways.

 

 

the question is NOT open to interpretation:

 

Predict what each film will make as a percentage of its previous installment

 

It's pretty obvious that all percentages are based on the previous installment.

 

[Plain Old Tele]

So if I say 125%, then it is between 115-135% and not between 112.5-137.5%. Just wanted to confirm that.

 

My understanding of it (using your 125% example):

 

115-135% = 7,000 points

112.5-137.5% =  5,000 points

105-145% = 0 points

less than 105, greater than 145 = -10,000 points

[Blankments]

1)  22 Jump Street    152%
2)  How to Train Your Dragon 2    153%
5)  Planes: Fire and Rescue   133%

 

Abstain on everything else

[Punishment]

Abstain for now

[The Panda]

1)  22 Jump Street    115%
2)  How to Train Your Dragon 2  155%
3)  Transformers: Age of Extinction    75%
4)  Dawn Of the Planet of the Apes    130%
5)  Planes: Fire and Rescue    120%
6)  The Purge Anarchy

[Cedarpoint1111]

Abstain in case I forget...

[AndyLL]

2)  How to Train Your Dragon 2    (Previous Film: 217,581,231) 115%
3)  Transformers: Age of Extinction   (Previous Film: 352,390,543) 95%

[Dipper]

at the moment:

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 137%

Transformers 4 - 81%

Planes: Fire & Rescue - 123%

 

Abstain from the rest