How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[langer]

Edited some figures in previous post. 

[5upe5]

So, with BvS and Civil War coming up, do we have up-to-date figures on recent films: AOU, CA2, and MOS and how the home dvd/blu-ray sales/rental markets received them at this point? (I ask because they stop reporting it seems on some sites a few months after home release) 

[langer]

The-Numbers has some nice charts which are not accurate figures, but rather extrapolation from official sources to include Walmart sales and others. 

 

The publish DVD and Blu Ray charts weekly and usually lag about 5-6 weeks (currently publishing January 10th).  each movie also has a Home Video sales section that will show total sales and weekly performance if the movie charted in the top 30 of either format.   Figures are updated weekly for all movies, but form time to time, adjustments are made. 

 

To repeat what others have said multiple times, The Numbers HV sales are wrong, but they are the best ones we have. 

 

As for specific movies:

Age of Ultron

Man of Steel

Captain America 2 - TWS

[langer]

The-Numbers has been catching up on their charts lately, releasing 2 charts per week and are now about 4 weeks behind which is still behind what they used to do in the past (2 weeks).

 

Movies from September and October (Maze Runner, Martian, SOC, HT2) are popping up on the charts with tepid HV sales that will end up between 20M$ and 40M$ each once all is said and done.

 

The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

 

Fun trivia, in the last 5 years, only 3 blockbusters sequels were able to outgross their previous entries on HV.

Fast and Furious 6 (131M$) over Fast 5 (70M$)

Skyfall (100M$) over Quantum of Solace (61M$)

Sherlock Holmes 2 (87M$) over Sherlock Homes (86M$)

 

Exceptions

Men of Steel (106M$) outgrossed Superman Returns (86M$) but this was a reboot

X-Men Days of Future Past (73M$ over X-Men First Class (67M$) ------ although it didn't outgross X-Men The Last Stand (146M$)

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, langer said:

The-Numbers has been catching up on their charts lately, releasing 2 charts per week and are now about 4 weeks behind which is still behind what they used to do in the past (2 weeks).

 

Movies from September and October (Maze Runner, Martian, SOC, HT2) are popping up on the charts with tepid HV sales that will end up between 20M$ and 40M$ each once all is said and done.

 

The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

 

Fun trivia, in the last 5 years, only 3 blockbusters sequels were able to outgross their previous entries on HV.

Fast and Furious 6 (131M$) over Fast 5 (70M$)

Skyfall (100M$) over Quantum of Solace (61M$)

Sherlock Holmes 2 (87M$) over Sherlock Homes (86M$)

 

Exceptions

Men of Steel (106M$) outgrossed Superman Returns (86M$) but this was a reboot

X-Men Days of Future Past (73M$ over X-Men First Class (67M$) ------ although it didn't outgross X-Men The Last Stand (146M$)

Do you think Deadpool can beat DOFP when it's out in May?

[bapi]

30 minutes ago, langer said:

The-Numbers has been catching up on their charts lately, releasing 2 charts per week and are now about 4 weeks behind which is still behind what they used to do in the past (2 weeks).

 

Movies from September and October (Maze Runner, Martian, SOC, HT2) are popping up on the charts with tepid HV sales that will end up between 20M$ and 40M$ each once all is said and done.

 

The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

 

Fun trivia, in the last 5 years, only 3 blockbusters sequels were able to outgross their previous entries on HV.

Fast and Furious 6 (131M$) over Fast 5 (70M$)

Skyfall (100M$) over Quantum of Solace (61M$)

Sherlock Holmes 2 (87M$) over Sherlock Homes (86M$)

 

Exceptions

Men of Steel (106M$) outgrossed Superman Returns (86M$) but this was a reboot

X-Men Days of Future Past (73M$ over X-Men First Class (67M$) ------ although it didn't outgross X-Men The Last Stand (146M$)

Rio 2 finished with 52M and Mr. Peabody & Shermanwith 29M. And that was two years ago. So personally don't think The Good Dinosaur will make more than 20-25M. Also would say that Spectre will finish under 40M.

[langer]

1 minute ago, bapi said:

Rio 2 finished with 52M and Mr. Peabody & Shermanwith 29M. And that was two years ago. So personally don't think The Good Dinosaur will make more than 20-25M. Also would say that Spectre will finish under 40M.

 

I mostly agree with this, but I'm banking on Pixar having a good track record on HV.  On the other hand,  they had a good track record at the BO and that didn't help TGD...

Spectre will most likely not reach 50M$,  agreed. 

 

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Do you think Deadpool can beat DOFP when it's out in May?

 

It has a good chance.  First entries tend to do better than sequels, I think it can do about 80% of GotG seeing as the market is probably down 20% since 2014.  90M$ would be a good target between the HV release date and the sequel release date (2 year span).

[langer]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 3:04 PM, bapi said:

Rio 2 finished with 52M and Mr. Peabody & Shermanwith 29M. And that was two years ago. So personally don't think The Good Dinosaur will make more than 20-25M. Also would say that Spectre will finish under 40M.

 

Small bump as we got Spectre's first week results for Blu Ray with a 16M$ start.  This should translate to about 30-35M$ on Blu Ray and roughly 15-20M$ on DVD. 

[The Gotham Bank]

14 minutes ago, langer said:

 

Small bump as we got Spectre's first week results for Blu Ray with a 16M$ start.  This should translate to about 30-35M$ on Blu Ray and roughly 15-20M$ on DVD. 

So around 50% of Skyfall ?

[langer]

4 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

So around 50% of Skyfall ?

 

Yep - a combination of a market in decline (20-30% since 2013), sequel effect  and a definitely  less popular movie. 

[bapi]

On 20. 3. 2016 at 5:05 PM, langer said:

 

Yep - a combination of a market in decline (20-30% since 2013), sequel effect  and a definitely  less popular movie. 

Spectre's 2nd week:

 

DVD -70%

blu-ray -79%

[langer]

7 hours ago, bapi said:

Spectre's 2nd week:

 

DVD -70%

blu-ray -79%

 

It's kinda standard though.  Frozen dropped 68% on DVD and 77% on Blu Ray in March of 2014 on its 2nd week.  Spectre's gonna pass 40M.   

[Arlborn]

This thread is depressing for anyone who remembers rewinding a VHS.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Arlborn

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

This thread is depressing for anyone who remembers rewinding a VHS.

 

Or for those of us who followed HV Sales during DVD's heyday (2002-2008) I mean look at the sales for 2006 & 2007... Shows that Pirates really was a beast on HV even if the Theatrical (#3) fell substantially

[langer]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 3:04 PM, bapi said:

Rio 2 finished with 52M and Mr. Peabody & Shermanwith 29M. And that was two years ago. So personally don't think The Good Dinosaur will make more than 20-25M. Also would say that Spectre will finish under 40M.

 

Looks like Spectre will crawl to 40M, but The Good Dinosaur should make it to 50M as it raked 27M in its first week. 

[Mojoguy]

We finally get another mega home video seller with TFA

For the week ending 9th April 2016:

Blu-ray sales total spending: $93.54 million
DVD sales total spending: $64.26 million

Weekly Blu-ray sales was $93.54 million, compared to only $64.26 million for DVDs. That's 59% of total disc sales belong to Blu-ray - the previous record was only 48%, set by Jurassic World last year.

While weekly Blu-ray sales didn't break any records, outside of the busy holiday sales period, this was the best weeks for Blu-ray. It outdid most weeks with big releases, but failed to match the power of 'Frozen', which debuted with an amazing $101.98 million for that week.

82.61% of those buying the new Star Wars film chose the Blu-ray edition over the DVD edition, which in itself was a new record for a new release (that wasn't a re-release or a Blu-ray exclusive). As a comparison, "only" 67.06% of buyers chose the Blu-ray edition of Jurassic World over the DVD only edition.

http://www.digital-digest.com/news-64367-Star-Wars-The-Force-Awakens-Breaks-Blu-ray-Records.html

Edited April 22, 2016 by Mojoguy

[langer]

13 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

We finally get another mega home video seller with TFA
 

http://www.digital-digest.com/news-64367-Star-Wars-The-Force-Awakens-Breaks-Blu-ray-Records.html

 

Your link redirects to this thread...

Edited April 22, 2016 by langer

[langer]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 2:31 PM, langer said:

The-Numbers has been catching up on their charts lately, releasing 2 charts per week and are now about 4 weeks behind which is still behind what they used to do in the past (2 weeks).

 

Movies from September and October (Maze Runner, Martian, SOC, HT2) are popping up on the charts with tepid HV sales that will end up between 20M$ and 40M$ each once all is said and done.

 

The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

 

 

- Peanuts is currently at 22M and should get at least 35M before dropping out of the top 30.  It will crawl to 40M eventually.

 

- HG MJ2 opened to 21M$ on Blu Ray which is better than expected.  This should guarantee at least  50M$ in combined sales depending on how strong DVD sales are.  60M$ is not out of the question. 

 

- Spectre is at 32M at the moment and should also leave the top 30 with about 37-38M.  Will reach 40M in its first year, but most likely won't reach 50M unless it gets some special deals.

 

- The Good Dinosaur is at 44M at the moment and still selling strong.  50M is locked for this. 

 

- Alvin 4 will have a hard time reaching 25M (currently at around 8M) , which is less than half of Alvin 3 and less than 20% of the original.  Would be surprised if they move ahead with a fifth entry.   

 

Numbers for SW should be coming in about 2 weeks.  Week of March 27th was the first week since November 29th (Black Friday week) that a SW boxed set was not in the top 20 Blu Ray sales.  If we ignore the Black Friday week, you have to go back to the week ending April 5th to have a top 20 Blu Ray without any SW box set.  Since then:

 

The OT box set grossed : 55M$

The PT box set grossed : 34M$

The saga box set grossed : 95M$ ! 

Edited April 25, 2016 by langer

[KingoftheWorld]

http://variety.com/2016/digital/news/deadpool-sets-new-digital-hd-sales-records-on-home-video-1201767730/

 

‘Deadpool’ Sets New Digital HD Sales Records on Home Video

 

[WrathOfHan]

The Blu-Ray sales are going to be massive