How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[terrestrial]

So, to try to summarize the current HV tracking:

 

- Latest domestic dollar numbers: the-numbers.com

- Latest domestic blu-ray/dvd chart: homemediamagazines.com

 

Further approximations:

- It is probably fair to estimate an even 1-to-1 ratio between domestic and overseas HV market as a good approximation to worldwide HV sales

- Additional digital video sales and rental would account for about 50% of the physical DVD/Blu-ray sales

- HV would give the studios about 60-70% additional profit of the gross domestic sales (and possibly a good indication of what the studios get from overseas, digital sales and rental)

 

Not sure about the actual US percentages, but as quoted earlier here, for UK it doesn't seem to have reached those percentages / splits - yet.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17284-how-hv-sales-used-to-turn-big-box-office-hits-into-massive-box-office-giants/page-2#entry1833149

 

part-requote:

 

 

More people buy a physical video than subscribe to Sky or Netflix combined:  More than 22 million people bought a video disc in 2013, whilst 10.5 million households subscribed to Sky and 3.3 million subscribed to a Video-on-Demand service, proving the continued popularity of Blu-ray Discs and DVDs. In fact 73% of the total £2.24 billion video market remains in a physical rather than a digital format.

 

Consumers still prefer to own than rent: There is still something very special about owning a title on video, with 70% of consumers paying to keep and just 30% renting. And owning a disc rather than having a digital download firmly remains the most popular form of keeping a video to watch again and again, with 92% of spending in the physical world and just 8% in the digital world.

 

Blu-ray Disc continues to grow: Sales of Blu-ray Discs grew 10% in 2013 as consumers continued their love affair with watching video in HD.

 

 

Homemedia... also gives a per week to week comparison to last years sales numbers incl Blu-Ray details. Still showing the till 20 December details, as the Blu-Ray splits / percentages of the week till 28 December seems not be finished yet

 

The-Numbers is around 1 month behind what I would call 'actual', but I am still very grateful for their lists

 

  btw

[Lordmandeep]

Here is an argument are used video games wrong? 

[terrestrial]

Here is an argument are used video games wrong? 

 

????

[TServo2049]

That's an argument for a different thread, in the Video Games board.

I only brought up video games to say that locking digital downloads and/or digital copies to a specific TV/computer/screen could cause outcry similar to the Xbox One kerfuffle, in that people to whom the appeal of digital is "watch anywhere" could get pissed off that they're not being allowed to watch anywhere. I didn't mean to derail the HV discussion.

Edited January 4, 2015 by TServo2049

[James]

Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

 

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular  TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

[The Futurist]

Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

Imagine how much money warner made with the original trilogy when the home video market was still ginormous, plus the box sets, extended editions etc Edited January 4, 2015 by The Futurist

[James]

I imagine how much money warner made with the original trilogy when the home video market was still ginormous, plus the box sets, extended editions etc

24 Lord of the Rings - The Motion Picture Trilogy 2,602,002 $146,725,563 Dec 14, 2004

This is the box set Bluray alone and those 146M are from 2008 till today. The 24th biggest Bluray Seller since 2008. I imagine adding all home sales LOTR has probably doubled it's theatrical release.

[TServo2049]

You also have to factor in the Extended Edition Blu-rays, though I'm thinking they haven't sold more copies than the theatrical box set.

[baumer]

Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

 

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular  TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

 

The Hobbit films are licenses to print money.

[jb007]

People like terrestrial have posted good information about the HV market that was previously not known. 

 

@Baumer: You can summarize and list some of the information provided here regarding the HV studio share, VOD information on the first page of this thread. This could form a knowledge base for the HV market. 

 

 

[bapi]

So Thor: The Dark World with 150M WW from DVD/blu/digi against National Treasure with 200M DOM from DVD/rentals. Or Pearl Harbor with 260M DOM from DVD/VHS sales. Crazy.

[jb007]

So Thor: The Dark World with 150M WW from DVD/blu/digi against National Treasure with 200M DOM from DVD/rentals. Or Pearl Harbor with 260M DOM from DVD/VHS sales. Crazy.

The impact of piracy on HV sales has been brutal. They will have to just figure out a way to supplement the revenue.

 

The other aspect we have not discussed is the huge HV rental numbers from the likes of Blockbuster and other HV rental places. These could range from $50M to over $100M in many cases. Now that model is completely different.

[terrestrial]

The Numbersupdated their weekly charts (they have DVD charts, Blu-Ray charts and combined charts. The charts show also the combined results, so here the top 30

 

Be aware: especially GotG was sold out at some places till yesterday, is still slower than usual with delivery according to amazon.com, I guess the holiday days slowed down the filling up. So the sales might stay a bit higher than average for the next few week's charts. That little detail might also include other newly released movies.

 

Frozen's combined is ... very extreme, and still at #4!

 

Several MCU movies also still in the top 30 list (#26, #27, #30), also the Hobbit and Hunger Game movies.

 

And the early released Expendables 3 is at #12 in it's 3rd week of release, I think that is for me one of the most surprising details!

 

Curious about the endresults for Apes, X-Men,... too (in a year or so)

 

United States Combined DVD and Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending December 14, 2014

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

Rank	Title	Units this Week	Total Units	Spending this Week	Total Spending	Weeks
1	Guardians of the Galaxy	3,759,826	3,759,826	$67,002,611	$67,002,611	1
2	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	375,591	1,667,223	$6,434,319	$27,773,362	2
3	Dolphin Tale 2	341,964	341,964	$5,788,869	$5,788,869	1
4	Frozen	319,700	17,140,621	$6,633,915	$314,622,239	39
5	How to Train Your Dragon 2	223,485	3,331,522	$2,821,268	$57,563,200	5
6	Elf	196,401	6,191,168	$1,612,771	$51,412,935	526
7	When the Game Stands Tall	190,651	190,651	$3,606,128	$3,606,128	1
8	National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation	164,718	8,269,471	$2,286,098	$102,268,566	891
9	Maleficent	164,613	3,180,243	$3,602,024	$61,106,206	6
10	The Polar Express	140,493	8,265,306	$1,515,600	$96,053,882	468
11	A Christmas Story	133,967	4,546,057	$1,098,656	$50,385,739	742
12	The Expendables 3	129,479	891,235	$2,274,849	$15,213,294	3
13	22 Jump Street	117,352	858,788	$1,890,930	$16,161,324	4
14	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	114,327	4,274,373	$1,749,450	$90,330,983	36
15	Mr. Peabody & Sherman	101,433	1,432,177	$1,369,336	$23,231,632	9
16	Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas	96,965	646,225	$1,588,246	$10,033,552	3
17	How the Grinch Stole Christmas	92,872	1,753,752	$993,207	$20,713,097	682
18	The Fault in Our Stars	84,406	1,767,632	$1,546,833	$32,124,743	13
19	The Lego Movie	75,867	4,619,205	$1,025,557	$103,358,566	26
20	X-Men Days of Future Past	75,865	2,708,357	$1,050,360	$42,538,841	9
21	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	55,473	6,190,367	$656,569	$110,886,744	41
22	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	53,846	6,899,205	$715,688	$121,145,983	91
23	Divergent	53,175	2,808,560	$774,164	$48,926,257	19
24	Transformers: Age of Extinction	51,067	3,478,852	$730,822	$56,687,162	11
25	Sleeping Beauty	50,777	6,496,883	$1,065,719	$127,482,634	588
26	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	50,704	2,724,891	$890,770	$48,783,630	14
27	Despicable Me 2	46,540	12,608,642	$690,705	$222,949,314	53
28	The Avengers	45,820	10,839,238	$593,814	$221,053,586	116
29	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader	45,172	2,914,123	$347,418	$45,106,735	193
30	Thor: The Dark World	43,207	3,534,595	$825,394	$65,913,137	42

 

 

Next week's chart will show TMNT's release week's numbers

[terrestrial]

Aehm, just realised that 'early released' might have been unclear:

 

Expendables 3 = early leaked - then in the cinemas

[kowhite]

The impact of piracy on HV sales has been brutal. They will have to just figure out a way to supplement the revenue.

 

The other aspect we have not discussed is the huge HV rental numbers from the likes of Blockbuster and other HV rental places. These could range from $50M to over $100M in many cases. Now that model is completely different.

I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

[terrestrial]

I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

 

I think it's a combined reasoning:

 

piracy & streaming

 

renting physicals seems to get down more, but renting per demand is calculatable per movie.

 

But how to calculate streaming movies, if the provider pays for a package?

 

It's probably like the TV rights, but I think streaming takes more away from physical sales than the TV rights did

 

Release dates for streaming as VOD seems also a bit too early for maximum possible revenue.

 

Here in my country you have to wait ~ 6 months for the DVDs... and (in the past, not sure if that is still actual) 2 years for the TV release. I think releasing too early via digital takes a lot out of physical sales, especially if those physicals are sold out early like it happened with GotG (Kitik told in his/her region after 2 days all versions were sold out, still sold out shortly before Christmas), people loose the 'apetite' to buy 'fast', might say let's buy it as VOD or wait for e.g. netflix or...

[DeeCee]

I can't find actual numbers for Australia.  Only annual rankings.

 

http://www.screenaustralia.gov.au/research/statistics/videotoptitles.aspx#Raf10111

[langer]

Avatar is the last movie to have reached 200M$ in DVD sales.

 

DVDs released after Avatar that are close to 200M$

 

- Toy Story 3                     - 189M$

- Despicable Me                - 184M$ (still selling somewhat strongly - will receive a boost in 2015 with Minions)

- Twilight Eclipse               - 180M$

- Frozen                             - 169M$  (still going very strong)

- The Hunger Games         - 146M$ (should receive a boost in 2015 with MJ2 and with MJ1 HV release)

- Tangled                           - 142M$ (seems to have received a boost from all the Frozen love)

- How to train your dragon - 135M$

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Pirates of the Carribean : At world's end is the last DVD to have reached 300M$

 

DVDs released after PotC : AWE that are close to 300M$

 

- The Dark Knight        - 282M$  (will receive a boost in early 2016 with BvS's release)

- Harry Potter : OOTP - 250M$

- Twilight                      - 238M$

- Avatar                        - 229M$ (will receive a boost in 2016-2017 with the release of the sequel)

- Transformers : ROTF - 223M$

 

300 (276M$) and Transformers (294M$) were both released before POTC : AWE

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Chronicles of Narnia is the last DVD to have reached 400M$ and currently sits at 429M$

 

DVDs released after Narnia that are "close" to 400M$

 

- POTC : DMC - 322M$

- POTC : AWE - 312M$

- Transformers - 294M$

 

Harry Potter : GOF (540M$...if you believe that number...) was released before Narnia. 

Edited January 6, 2015 by langer

[jb007]

I think it's a combined reasoning:

 

piracy & streaming

 

renting physicals seems to get down more, but renting per demand is calculatable per movie.

 

But how to calculate streaming movies, if the provider pays for a package?

 

It's probably like the TV rights, but I think streaming takes more away from physical sales than the TV rights did

 

Release dates for streaming as VOD seems also a bit too early for maximum possible revenue.

 

Here in my country you have to wait ~ 6 months for the DVDs... and (in the past, not sure if that is still actual) 2 years for the TV release. I think releasing too early via digital takes a lot out of physical sales, especially if those physicals are sold out early like it happened with GotG (Kitik told in his/her region after 2 days all versions were sold out, still sold out shortly before Christmas), people loose the 'apetite' to buy 'fast', might say let's buy it as VOD or wait for e.g. netflix or...

+1

 

Agreed.

 

 

I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

 

 

Changed viewing patterns/demos would amount to reallocation of revenue from one source to another. So the impact on revenue should be limited. The major reason for loss of revenue is piracy. 

 

Consider the following 2 movies with similar domestic grosses (I understand, they represent different demos/genres):

 

Pearl Harbor: 

 

Theatrical  Gross (Dom): $198 M 

HV Sales (Dom): $263 M 

Pearl Harbor also had a robust video rental gross

 

Thor 2: 

 

Theatrical  Gross (Dom): $206 M 

HV Sales (Dom): $62 M  

HV revenue from all sources (Dom): $100M

 

So a big chunk of the huge disparity i.e. $163 M has to be blamed on piracy. .

[James]

Avatar is the last movie to have reached 200M$ in DVD sales.

 

DVDs released after Avatar that are close to 200M$

 

- Toy Story 3                     - 189M$

- Despicable Me                - 184M$ (still selling somewhat strongly - will receive a boost in 2015 with Minions)

- Twilight Eclipse               - 180M$

- Frozen                             - 169M$  (still going very strong)

- The Hunger Games         - 146M$ (should receive a boost in 2015 with MJ2 and with MJ1 HV release)

- Tangled                           - 142M$ (seems to have received a boost from all the Frozen love)

- How to train your dragon - 135M$

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Pirates of the Carribean : At world's end is the last DVD to have reached 300M$

 

DVDs released after PotC : AWE that are close to 300M$

 

- The Dark Knight        - 282M$  (will receive a boost in early 2016 with BvS's release)

- Harry Potter : OOTP - 250M$

- Twilight                      - 238M$

- Avatar                        - 229M$ (will receive a boost in 2016-2017 with the release of the sequel)

- Transformers : ROTF - 223M$

 

300 (276M$) and Transformers (294M$) were both released before POTC : AWE

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Chronicles of Narnia is the last DVD to have reached 400M$ and currently sits at 429M$

 

DVDs released after Narnia that are "close" to 400M$

 

- POTC : DMC - 322M$

- POTC : AWE - 312M$

- Transformers - 294M$

 

Harry Potter : GOF (540M$...if you believe that number...) was released before Narnia. 

And people are wondering why the POTC movies are still made. They are just as big money makers for Disney as TA all things considered. I mean, just look at PATC 4: OST. Even with the supposed bad WOM it made 1.04B  from the theatrical release. Add 87M from domestic home market, plus the OS home market that is the main target for such a movie. It probably ended up with over 1.3B WW from a 250M budget and that's not counting the expensive TV rights.