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baumer

How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

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So, to try to summarize the current HV tracking:

 

- Latest domestic dollar numbers: the-numbers.com

- Latest domestic blu-ray/dvd chart: homemediamagazines.com

 

Further approximations:

- It is probably fair to estimate an even 1-to-1 ratio between domestic and overseas HV market as a good approximation to worldwide HV sales

- Additional digital video sales and rental would account for about 50% of the physical DVD/Blu-ray sales

- HV would give the studios about 60-70% additional profit of the gross domestic sales (and possibly a good indication of what the studios get from overseas, digital sales and rental)

 

Not sure about the actual US percentages, but as quoted earlier here, for UK it doesn't seem to have reached those percentages / splits - yet.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/17284-how-hv-sales-used-to-turn-big-box-office-hits-into-massive-box-office-giants/page-2#entry1833149

 

part-requote:

 

 

More people buy a physical video than subscribe to Sky or Netflix combined:  More than 22 million people bought a video disc in 2013, whilst 10.5 million households subscribed to Sky and 3.3 million subscribed to a Video-on-Demand service, proving the continued popularity of Blu-ray Discs and DVDs. In fact 73% of the total £2.24 billion video market remains in a physical rather than a digital format.

 

Consumers still prefer to own than rent: There is still something very special about owning a title on video, with 70% of consumers paying to keep and just 30% renting. And owning a disc rather than having a digital download firmly remains the most popular form of keeping a video to watch again and again, with 92% of spending in the physical world and just 8% in the digital world.

 

Blu-ray Disc continues to grow: Sales of Blu-ray Discs grew 10% in 2013 as consumers continued their love affair with watching video in HD.

 

 

Homemedia... also gives a per week to week comparison to last years sales numbers incl Blu-Ray details. Still showing the till 20 December details, as the Blu-Ray splits / percentages of the week till 28 December seems not be finished yet

 

The-Numbers is around 1 month behind what I would call 'actual', but I am still very grateful for their lists

 

:welcome:  btw

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That's an argument for a different thread, in the Video Games board.

I only brought up video games to say that locking digital downloads and/or digital copies to a specific TV/computer/screen could cause outcry similar to the Xbox One kerfuffle, in that people to whom the appeal of digital is "watch anywhere" could get pissed off that they're not being allowed to watch anywhere. I didn't mean to derail the HV discussion.

Edited by TServo2049

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Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

 

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular  TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

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Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

Imagine how much money warner made with the original trilogy when the home video market was still ginormous, plus the box sets, extended editions etc Edited by The Futurist
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I imagine how much money warner made with the original trilogy when the home video market was still ginormous, plus the box sets, extended editions etc

24 Lord of the Rings - The Motion Picture Trilogy 2,602,002 $146,725,563 Dec 14, 2004

This is the box set Bluray alone and those 146M are from 2008 till today. The 24th biggest Bluray Seller since 2008. I imagine adding all home sales LOTR has probably doubled it's theatrical release.

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You also have to factor in the Extended Edition Blu-rays, though I'm thinking they haven't sold more copies than the theatrical box set.

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Just checked:

An Unexpected journey made 120M from DVD/Blu sales in the US.

DOS made 88M from DVD/Blu in the US.

 

I'm really interested in the international home sale, considering how popular  TH is OS. Either way, a massive cash cow for WB.

 

The Hobbit films are licenses to print money.

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People like terrestrial have posted good information about the HV market that was previously not known.  :)

 

@Baumer: You can summarize and list some of the information provided here regarding the HV studio share, VOD information on the first page of this thread. This could form a knowledge base for the HV market. 

 

 

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So Thor: The Dark World with 150M WW from DVD/blu/digi against National Treasure with 200M DOM from DVD/rentals. Or Pearl Harbor with 260M DOM from DVD/VHS sales. Crazy.

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So Thor: The Dark World with 150M WW from DVD/blu/digi against National Treasure with 200M DOM from DVD/rentals. Or Pearl Harbor with 260M DOM from DVD/VHS sales. Crazy.

The impact of piracy on HV sales has been brutal. They will have to just figure out a way to supplement the revenue.

 

The other aspect we have not discussed is the huge HV rental numbers from the likes of Blockbuster and other HV rental places. These could range from $50M to over $100M in many cases. Now that model is completely different.

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The Numbersupdated their weekly charts (they have DVD charts, Blu-Ray charts and combined charts. The charts show also the combined results, so here the top 30

 

Be aware: especially GotG was sold out at some places till yesterday, is still slower than usual with delivery according to amazon.com, I guess the holiday days slowed down the filling up. So the sales might stay a bit higher than average for the next few week's charts. That little detail might also include other newly released movies.

 

Frozen's combined is ... very extreme, and still at #4!

 

Several MCU movies also still in the top 30 list (#26, #27, #30), also the Hobbit and Hunger Game movies.

 

And the early released Expendables 3 is at #12 in it's 3rd week of release, I think that is for me one of the most surprising details!

 

Curious about the endresults for Apes, X-Men,... too (in a year or so)

 

United States Combined DVD and Blu-ray Sales Chart for Week Ending December 14, 2014

← Previous Chart Chart Index  
Rank Title Units this Week Total Units Spending this Week Total Spending Weeks
1 Guardians of the Galaxy 3,759,826 3,759,826 $67,002,611 $67,002,611 1
2 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 375,591 1,667,223 $6,434,319 $27,773,362 2
3 Dolphin Tale 2 341,964 341,964 $5,788,869 $5,788,869 1
4 Frozen 319,700 17,140,621 $6,633,915 $314,622,239 39
5 How to Train Your Dragon 2 223,485 3,331,522 $2,821,268 $57,563,200 5
6 Elf 196,401 6,191,168 $1,612,771 $51,412,935 526
7 When the Game Stands Tall 190,651 190,651 $3,606,128 $3,606,128 1
8 National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation 164,718 8,269,471 $2,286,098 $102,268,566 891
9 Maleficent 164,613 3,180,243 $3,602,024 $61,106,206 6
10 The Polar Express 140,493 8,265,306 $1,515,600 $96,053,882 468
11 A Christmas Story 133,967 4,546,057 $1,098,656 $50,385,739 742
12 The Expendables 3 129,479 891,235 $2,274,849 $15,213,294 3
13 22 Jump Street 117,352 858,788 $1,890,930 $16,161,324 4
14 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 114,327 4,274,373 $1,749,450 $90,330,983 36
15 Mr. Peabody & Sherman 101,433 1,432,177 $1,369,336 $23,231,632 9
16 Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas 96,965 646,225 $1,588,246 $10,033,552 3
17 How the Grinch Stole Christmas 92,872 1,753,752 $993,207 $20,713,097 682
18 The Fault in Our Stars 84,406 1,767,632 $1,546,833 $32,124,743 13
19 The Lego Movie 75,867 4,619,205 $1,025,557 $103,358,566 26
20 X-Men Days of Future Past 75,865 2,708,357 $1,050,360 $42,538,841 9
21 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 55,473 6,190,367 $656,569 $110,886,744 41
22 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 53,846 6,899,205 $715,688 $121,145,983 91
23 Divergent 53,175 2,808,560 $774,164 $48,926,257 19
24 Transformers: Age of Extinction 51,067 3,478,852 $730,822 $56,687,162 11
25 Sleeping Beauty 50,777 6,496,883 $1,065,719 $127,482,634 588
26 Captain America: The Winter Soldier 50,704 2,724,891 $890,770 $48,783,630 14
27 Despicable Me 2 46,540 12,608,642 $690,705 $222,949,314 53
28 The Avengers 45,820 10,839,238 $593,814 $221,053,586 116
29 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader 45,172 2,914,123 $347,418 $45,106,735 193
30 Thor: The Dark World 43,207 3,534,595 $825,394 $65,913,137 42

 

 

Next week's chart will show TMNT's release week's numbers

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Aehm, just realised that 'early released' might have been unclear:

 

Expendables 3 = early leaked - then in the cinemas

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The impact of piracy on HV sales has been brutal. They will have to just figure out a way to supplement the revenue.

 

The other aspect we have not discussed is the huge HV rental numbers from the likes of Blockbuster and other HV rental places. These could range from $50M to over $100M in many cases. Now that model is completely different.

I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

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I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

 

I think it's a combined reasoning:

 

piracy & streaming

 

renting physicals seems to get down more, but renting per demand is calculatable per movie.

 

But how to calculate streaming movies, if the provider pays for a package?

 

It's probably like the TV rights, but I think streaming takes more away from physical sales than the TV rights did

 

Release dates for streaming as VOD seems also a bit too early for maximum possible revenue.

 

Here in my country you have to wait ~ 6 months for the DVDs... and (in the past, not sure if that is still actual) 2 years for the TV release. I think releasing too early via digital takes a lot out of physical sales, especially if those physicals are sold out early like it happened with GotG (Kitik told in his/her region after 2 days all versions were sold out, still sold out shortly before Christmas), people loose the 'apetite' to buy 'fast', might say let's buy it as VOD or wait for e.g. netflix or...

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Avatar is the last movie to have reached 200M$ in DVD sales.

 

DVDs released after Avatar that are close to 200M$

 

- Toy Story 3                     - 189M$

- Despicable Me                - 184M$ (still selling somewhat strongly - will receive a boost in 2015 with Minions)

- Twilight Eclipse               - 180M$

- Frozen                             - 169M$  (still going very strong)

- The Hunger Games         - 146M$ (should receive a boost in 2015 with MJ2 and with MJ1 HV release)

- Tangled                           - 142M$ (seems to have received a boost from all the Frozen love)

- How to train your dragon - 135M$

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Pirates of the Carribean : At world's end is the last DVD to have reached 300M$

 

DVDs released after PotC : AWE that are close to 300M$

 

- The Dark Knight        - 282M$  (will receive a boost in early 2016 with BvS's release)

- Harry Potter : OOTP - 250M$

- Twilight                      - 238M$

- Avatar                        - 229M$ (will receive a boost in 2016-2017 with the release of the sequel)

- Transformers : ROTF - 223M$

 

300 (276M$) and Transformers (294M$) were both released before POTC : AWE

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Chronicles of Narnia is the last DVD to have reached 400M$ and currently sits at 429M$

 

DVDs released after Narnia that are "close" to 400M$

 

- POTC : DMC - 322M$

- POTC : AWE - 312M$

- Transformers - 294M$

 

Harry Potter : GOF (540M$...if you believe that number...) was released before Narnia. 

Edited by langer
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I think it's a combined reasoning:

 

piracy & streaming

 

renting physicals seems to get down more, but renting per demand is calculatable per movie.

 

But how to calculate streaming movies, if the provider pays for a package?

 

It's probably like the TV rights, but I think streaming takes more away from physical sales than the TV rights did

 

Release dates for streaming as VOD seems also a bit too early for maximum possible revenue.

 

Here in my country you have to wait ~ 6 months for the DVDs... and (in the past, not sure if that is still actual) 2 years for the TV release. I think releasing too early via digital takes a lot out of physical sales, especially if those physicals are sold out early like it happened with GotG (Kitik told in his/her region after 2 days all versions were sold out, still sold out shortly before Christmas), people loose the 'apetite' to buy 'fast', might say let's buy it as VOD or wait for e.g. netflix or...

+1

 

Agreed.

 

 

I don't think its really piracy that's the issue.

It's changing demographic viewing. They just don't buy movies the same way.

 

 

Changed viewing patterns/demos would amount to reallocation of revenue from one source to another. So the impact on revenue should be limited. The major reason for loss of revenue is piracy. 

 

Consider the following 2 movies with similar domestic grosses (I understand, they represent different demos/genres):

 

Pearl Harbor: 

 

Theatrical  Gross (Dom): $198 M 

HV Sales (Dom): $263 M 

Pearl Harbor also had a robust video rental gross

 

Thor 2: 

 

Theatrical  Gross (Dom): $206 M 

HV Sales (Dom): $62 M  

HV revenue from all sources (Dom): $100M

 

So a big chunk of the huge disparity i.e. $163 M has to be blamed on piracy. .

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Avatar is the last movie to have reached 200M$ in DVD sales.

 

DVDs released after Avatar that are close to 200M$

 

- Toy Story 3                     - 189M$

- Despicable Me                - 184M$ (still selling somewhat strongly - will receive a boost in 2015 with Minions)

- Twilight Eclipse               - 180M$

- Frozen                             - 169M$  (still going very strong)

- The Hunger Games         - 146M$ (should receive a boost in 2015 with MJ2 and with MJ1 HV release)

- Tangled                           - 142M$ (seems to have received a boost from all the Frozen love)

- How to train your dragon - 135M$

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Pirates of the Carribean : At world's end is the last DVD to have reached 300M$

 

DVDs released after PotC : AWE that are close to 300M$

 

- The Dark Knight        - 282M$  (will receive a boost in early 2016 with BvS's release)

- Harry Potter : OOTP - 250M$

- Twilight                      - 238M$

- Avatar                        - 229M$ (will receive a boost in 2016-2017 with the release of the sequel)

- Transformers : ROTF - 223M$

 

300 (276M$) and Transformers (294M$) were both released before POTC : AWE

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Chronicles of Narnia is the last DVD to have reached 400M$ and currently sits at 429M$

 

DVDs released after Narnia that are "close" to 400M$

 

- POTC : DMC - 322M$

- POTC : AWE - 312M$

- Transformers - 294M$

 

Harry Potter : GOF (540M$...if you believe that number...) was released before Narnia. 

And people are wondering why the POTC movies are still made. They are just as big money makers for Disney as TA all things considered. I mean, just look at PATC 4: OST. Even with the supposed bad WOM it made 1.04B  from the theatrical release. Add 87M from domestic home market, plus the OS home market that is the main target for such a movie. It probably ended up with over 1.3B WW from a 250M budget and that's not counting the expensive TV rights. 

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