MinaTakla Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 DOR is coming y'all! metalmeatwad @MichaelNotCera JOY screened. Sounds like DOR hit another home run. The shake-up: Edgar Ramirez is co-lead, a big breakout, & will likely land an Oscar nom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 So far I'm predicting 1.Spotlight 2.Joy 3.The Revenant 4.The Hateful Eight 5.Steve Jobs 6.Inside Out 7.Beasts of No Nation 8.A Populist Film (Either The Martian, Mad Max, or Star Wars) 9.Carol 10.Sicario I think they pass on The Danish Girl and Brooklyn (mediocre reviews) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 So far I'm predicting 1.Spotlight 2.Joy 3.The Revenant 4.The Hateful Eight 5.Steve Jobs 6.Inside Out 7.Beasts of No Nation 8.A Populist Film (Either The Martian, Mad Max, or Star Wars) 9.Carol 10.Sicario I think they pass on The Danish Girl and Brooklyn (mediocre reviews) That seems like a safe bet for the noms right now. Although I still fear IO and TGD will cancel each other out and neither will get in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'm also not confident about Brooklyn or The Danish Girl but can't imagine a work without Hooper going over huge at the Oscars. I'm losing faith in Beasts of No Nations. I'm not sure Netflix can pull it off and it is dark. And there is no way Carol is barely hanging on. I don't believe it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 DOR is coming y'all! metalmeatwad @MichaelNotCera JOY screened. Sounds like DOR hit another home run. The shake-up: Edgar Ramirez is co-lead, a big breakout, & will likely land an Oscar nom Which is interesting since he has appeared in almost none of the marketing or hype for the film to date. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 That's cool about Ramirez if true. Also amusing now that he's got Point Break, which is likely to be godawful, coming out the same day as Joy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 I'm also not confident about Brooklyn or The Danish Girl but can't imagine a work without Hooper going over huge at the Oscars. I'm losing faith in Beasts of No Nations. I'm not sure Netflix can pull it off and it is dark. And there is no way Carol is barely hanging on. I don't believe it. Carol is middle of the pack right now IMO. If some movies gain more traction it could miss depending on the number of nominees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Updating my predictions... 1. Spotlight (great reviews, relevant theme, history, great cast, lots of media attention for sure) 2. The revenant (unseen, but hype is through the roof) 3. Steve Jobs (strong reviews, actor contender, bio, media attention) 4. Room (tiff winner, heavy drama, great reviews, big surprise) 5. Joy (looks to be another huge score for DOR, media attention for JLaw, Christmas release, inspirational bio) 6. Carol (lots of media attention, great reviews, period, two strong actresses in contention) 7. Youth (movie about movies, European auteur, Caine, strong reviews) 8. Danish girl (not-so-hot reviews, but period drama, bio, media attention) 9. Brooklyn (they love period drama, great reviews, immigration is a hot theme) And... 10. Inside Out (glowing reviews, smash BO hit, Pixar comeback, heavy theme) Close in the race Sicario (needs GA approval) Bridge of Spies (unseen) Martian (needs BO and some of the contenders to be overlloked. Too crowded year?) Hateful eight (will they nom every Tarantino violent stravaganza?) Son of Saul (European film, but critics reaction is gorgeous and Oscars loves holocaust themed movies) In the heart of the sea (too crowded field? Needs BO and GA love. With Howard you never know) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 I am really thinking Joy will win now. (And become the first BP winner starting with the letter J! Meaning only the letters Q, V, X and Z will be the only letters that no winner starts with! Which last year had the first BP winner with the letter X!-I wonder how sad it is that I have the most bizarre film trivia ) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Im just hoping maybe the Academy has wised up a bit and will avoid Danish Girl and Brooklyn and give the nod to films that actually have critical and financial traction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Im just hoping maybe the Academy has wised up a bit and will avoid Danish Girl and Brooklyn and give the nod to films that actually have critical and financial traction. Brooklyn has a 100% RT with a 8.6 avg rating The financial traction will come with critics awards and growing WOM. I can see it having a great platform opening (with something in the vicinity of 75,000 pta) and then spreading the GA interest about the movie. It has charm and a strong performance by a young actress, it is a romantic story, it is classy, it is about America, it deals with immigration (hot topic atm), and it looks like it is not a depressing drama like many others If it hits 20M before nominations are announced, be sure it will be nommed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) Brooklyn isn't a landmark film but I liked it a lot more than I expected. I'm not sure if it will get nominated or if it should but I'd be happy if it did. I think it will miss a lot of ballots though because it seems like a solid 6-10 best movie for Academy voters. And I think it will mellow out to high 80s and high 7s on RT. It is a really solid 3/4 for me. Just under 3.5. Probably liked it a little more than Room but think Room would be a more exciting BP pic. Edited September 29, 2015 by TStechnij Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Del Toro says Revenant is Alejandro's best movie. He used the words "incredible and "transcendental".http://www.premiere.fr/Bandes-annonc...e-The-Revenant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Del Toro says Revenant is Alejandro's best movie. He used the words "incredible and "transcendental". http://www.premiere.fr/Bandes-annonc...e-The-Revenant Well De Toro was on the flop of a Cannes jury... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 reminds me of all the filmmakers saying "man, interstellar is gonna blow your dick off!" last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 (edited) reminds me of all the filmmakers saying "man, interstellar is gonna blow your dick off!" last year. Yup. Calling it now: The Revenant will implode because of overhype. Think about it. For this to constitute as a success it won't just have to be huge across the board for Oscar nominations. The expectations will be even higher than Birdman because of the more known talent involved. PLUS, and this is a big plus, it will have to make a shit ton of money to not be considered a financial failure. Torture porn isn't audience or Oscar fodder. Everyone is hypnotized by Leo and Lubezki and blindly calling this a masterpiece when it could be a pretty disaster, totally uncommercial and not awards-y at all. Between the public's hype and Innaritu's auteur tendencies that drove the project way over budget we could be watching a catastrophic failure. Edited September 29, 2015 by TStechnij 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I certainly don't think The Revenant will do anywhere near the box office expectations people are expecting. There is absolutely nothing about it that looks like a box office hit, save for Leo's track record. Though even he can flop at the B.O. (i.e. J Edgar). Leo + good reviews can maybe take it to like 85m, but I think that's about best case. I think Fassbender will block Leo from his Oscar, because Leo is destined to not be recognized by the Academy until he is either ancient or dead. Inarittu will absolutely not win twice in a row and neither will one of his movies do it, barring the movie being some masterpiece for the ages beyond argument. So all in all, yes Revenant is being very over-hyped and will collapse under some of that weight. It won't win much if anything at the Oscars, and 60-80m seems realistic at the box office. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 1. Nolan never had the Academy support Iñarritu has. 2. Release schedule for Interstellar allowed backlash and interest move to other movies. Revenant is opening in late December. Even with lukewarm reception, it should manage to get in. 3. I prefer to compare this to Gangs of NY. It was a violent period epic drama R-rated that opened in December with Leo as the lead and a director Academy really loves. Even with mediocre reactions/WOM, it was nommed in a more restricted BP race. So nominations are close to assured. And think about other late December movies with great expectations that managed to not deceive once the noms were anounced: Curious Case of Ben Button, True grit, War Horse, Les miserables... All directed by names loved by the Academy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thinking about Gangs, it had 10 noms and was nommed in a 5 BP field over Catch me if you can, Far from heaven, Frida, Adaptation... and... Road to Perdition!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Currently thinking we get seven: Carol Inside Out The Hateful Eight Joy The Revenant Spotlight Steve Jobs --- 8. The Danish Girl 9. Trumbo 10. Youth 11. Room 12. Beasts of No Nation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
