2015 Best Picture predictions!

[JohnnY]

are people seriously expecting The Martian to win? come on, this doesn't even deserve a nom

The Martian is basically Gravity minus the emotional moments minus the thrilling score minus the amazing camera techniques

Inside Out deserves this nomination much more

 

if gravity, district 9 and inception (which were more acclaimed i guess) didn't win I can't believe The Martian is gonna do it

 

Edited November 18, 2015 by JohnnY

[Kvikk Lunsj]

The Martin has not chance at winning. 

[WrathOfHan]

24 minutes ago, JohnnY said:

are people seriously expecting The Martian to win? come on, this doesn't even deserve a nom

The Martian is basically Gravity minus the emotional moments minus the thrilling score minus the amazing camera techniques

Inside Out deserves this nomination much more

 

if gravity, district 9 and inception (which were more acclaimed i guess) didn't win I can't believe The Martian is gonna do it

 

The Martian was full of emotion and the songs acted as the score (not to discount Gravity's score).

[JohnnY]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

The Martian was full of emotion and the songs acted as the score (not to discount Gravity's score).

 

yeah but that was like a quarter of gravity's emotion

it's not only that i don't want it to win, i really can't see the academy choosing it, unless other contenders are really weak

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, JohnnY said:

 

yeah but that was like a quarter of gravity's emotion

it's not only that i don't want it to win, i really can't see the academy choosing it, unless other contenders are really weak

It's still too soon to say what is #1 right now. Spotlight feels like a default placeholder similar to Boyhood.

[misafeco]

I really liked The Martian, but i don't know why has it so much better chances than the other great blockbusters (like Catching Fire or Guardians of the Galaxy) that have absolutely no chance of being nominated.

[Webslinger]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

I really liked The Martian, but i don't know why has it so much better chances than the other great blockbusters (like Catching Fire or Guardians of the Galaxy) that have absolutely no chance of being nominated.

 

Oh, there are many reasons:

 

1.) It may be a genre film, but it's not one in the same way that Guardians of the Galaxy is. It's significantly more grounded in reality, which should enhance its accessibility with the Academy. In fact, that groundedness and heavy reliance on the "science" part of science fiction are huge reasons for why it has received such great praise in the critical community.

 

2.) Even with all of the humor in the film, it's still relatively serious (to the extent where I would be shocked if Fox runs it in Musical/Comedy rather than Drama at the Globes). The Academy has embraced serious sci-fi to varying degrees in each of the last two years. Gravity snagged seven wins and probably came within a razor's edge of beating 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture, and Interstellar managed five nominations despite being written off as a serious contender as soon as the divisive reviews began to roll in (and it also beat the much more CGI-heavy, better-reviewed, and higher-grossing Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for the Visual Effects Oscar).

 

3.) Ridley Scott is beloved and has yet to win an Oscar despite directing two sci-fi classics, (arguably) the definitive pro-feminist movie, and a Best Picture winner that even casual viewers love. Even with the mediocrity of his other recent work, it's tough for anyone who has paid attention to his career as a whole to argue that he isn't long overdue for recognition.

 

4.) Whereas the vast majority of adult-aimed, Oscar-baiting fall releases came and went quietly, The Martian's hype was huge upon its opening, and that hype has continued to hum. The industry seems to love it about as much as the public.

[4815162342]

20 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

 

2.) Even with all of the humor in the film, it's still relatively serious (to the extent where I would be shocked if Fox runs it in Musical/Comedy rather than Drama at the Globes).

 

Yeah...about that...

 

Yes, once again the Hollywood Foreign Press — with Fox’s tacit approval — has chosen to give a dramatic film with humorous moments the designation of a comedy. The move puts Ridley Scott’s space adventure, which has now earned $200 million at the box office, in company with other dubious ‘comedy’ choices of the recent past, such as Martin Scorsese’sThe Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, and even the 2005 Keira Knightley-starring Pride and Prejudice.

 

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/11/13/martian-comedy-golden-globes

[Webslinger]

2 hours ago, 4815162342 said:

 

Yeah...about that...

 

Yes, once again the Hollywood Foreign Press — with Fox’s tacit approval — has chosen to give a dramatic film with humorous moments the designation of a comedy. The move puts Ridley Scott’s space adventure, which has now earned $200 million at the box office, in company with other dubious ‘comedy’ choices of the recent past, such as Martin Scorsese’sThe Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, and even the 2005 Keira Knightley-starring Pride and Prejudice.

 

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/11/13/martian-comedy-golden-globes

 

Wow, I totally missed that. And I concur with EW 100% on the dubiousness of the categorization.

 

Nevertheless, it does still stand that the Academy seems to have embraced highbrow sci-fi in the last couple of years, and The Martian still falls under that designation.

Edited November 19, 2015 by Webslinger

[The Dark Alfred]

Martian was great, but it ain't Gravity. Won't have that much guild support and simply there are much better films. They're just not out yet, therefore Martian is riding the buzz. Carol, Revenant will be major players, my money is on Spotlight.

[Tau Ceti]

3 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Martian was great, but it ain't Gravity. Won't have that much guild support and simply there are much better films. They're just not out yet, therefore Martian is riding the buzz. Carol, Revenant will be major players, my money is on Spotlight.

 

I thought the same about Argo in its year but it still rode the buzz all the way to a win. Unless Joy and Spotlight totally muff up their wide release, I do think The Martian will bleed off enough of its goodwill as it drops out of the box office to finish somewhere around third. But we don't know yet. To say The Martian isn't a contender just doesn't hold up with the current polling. Carol will be too small a player for the big prize (ditto Brooklyn and Room) and Inarritu isn't winning back-to-back with Revenant.

 

The Martian ain't Gravity? You're right, it's a better film!

Edited November 19, 2015 by Tau Ceti

[stripe]

14 hours ago, Joel M said:

I don't think Joy, Revenant, Spotlight, Carol, Brooklyn and Room will all do THAT low. Something will break out.

 

19 hours ago, stripe said:

 

A few changes. Steve Jobs out, Room in. And The Martian is grossing more than expected

 

Inside Out 357M

The Martian 230M

Mad Max 153M

Joy 85M

Bridge of Spies 75M

Revenant 35M

Spotlight 35M

Carol 30M

Brooklyn 15M

Room 10M

 

Those are grosses before nominations anounced!

[CoolioD1]

i just think the year seems a bit weaker than usual. i liked the martian but if it had come out for the last 3 oscars i think it probs would've gotten pretty minimal awards buzz.

[DAJK]

Martian has a (chance) at being nominated. Zero shot at winning.

[Avatree]

I'm running my own campaign for Inside Out to win BP.

[stripe]

20 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i just think the year seems a bit weaker than usual. i liked the martian but if it had come out for the last 3 oscars i think it probs would've gotten pretty minimal awards buzz.

 

This is a crazy year quality wise. The Martian would have been nominated every year in an expanded category. It is comfortable, it is well excuted and performed, it's a smashing hit... Just like other space adventures like Apollo 13 or Gravity.

 

No way this is a weak year when we still have like 15 great contenders that would have been nommed if released in recent years. I guess The danish girl would have been nommed if released in 2014/2013/2012/2011.

 

[FilmBuff]

It's absolute insanity to think the Martian doesn't have a chance to win best picture. It is having really strong buzz headed into Oscar season. It was a great film, and the Oscar people love those inspiring type of movies. I personally still think inside out is the best movie of the year, and deserves the price, but the Martian is my 2nd favorite film of this year. And totally deserving of all the hype.

[The Panda]

On November 20, 2015 at 6:45:49 AM, stripe said:

 

This is a crazy year quality wise. The Martian would have been nominated every year in an expanded category. It is comfortable, it is well excuted and performed, it's a smashing hit... Just like other space adventures like Apollo 13 or Gravity.

 

No way this is a weak year when we still have like 15 great contenders that would have been nommed if released in recent years. I guess The danish girl would have been nommed if released in 2014/2013/2012/2011.

 

 

People said that in previous years as well about the films.  Especially 2013.

 

Quality wise, I wouldn't say it's a crazy year, Id say it's a decent year.  

[MinaTakla]

6 hours ago, FilmBuff said:

It's absolute insanity to think the Martian doesn't have a chance to win best picture. It is having really strong buzz headed into Oscar season. It was a great film, and the Oscar people love those inspiring type of movies. I personally still think inside out is the best movie of the year, and deserves the price, but the Martian is my 2nd favorite film of this year. And totally deserving of all the hype.

Exactly - so many ppl on this forum are not taking it seriously!

[Kvikk Lunsj]

5 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Exactly - so many ppl on this forum are not taking it seriously!

No sci-fi has ever won best picture. The Martin will not win best picture. Its best hope is to get nominated for best picture which is a long shot since it won't get any other major categorizes.