4-Day Wknd Est: AS - 105.3M, Pad - 25.2M, TWR - 24.5M,Taken 3 - 17.44M (pg 109)

[TLK]

A franchiseless R-rated biopic is gonna open to close to 100M and some of y'all are talking about Mission Impossible 5

 

This is why franchises rule the world

 

American Sniper is not a prequel/sequel but it is a part of the same shared Universe as ZDT and Lone Survivor.

[Jonwo]

I'm thinking it will. 

 

Feb - 50 Shades

Mar - Cinderella, Insurgent

Apr - Furious 7

May - Avengers 2, Tomorrowland 

Jun - Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2 

Jul - Minions, Ant-Man

Aug - none

Sep - none

Oct - none 

Nov - Spectre, Mockingjay 2, Good Dinosaur 

Dec - Star Wars 7

 

If Jungle Book was still in October... but yeah I could see 9 out of 12 months having an OW above $75 million. The contenders (likely or not) listed above. 

 

September might do well with Hotel Transylvania 2, the first did $42m OW so I expect a similar figure this time around, perhaps higher.

 

Just watched Paddington. The entire marketing team should be fired. Really really good movie. Huge lines for American Sniper though. Won't be surprised if it exceeds the high end of expectations today.

 

Studiocanal in the UK marketed it quite well and it was a hit, it seems The Weinstein Company while great at promoting serious films like The Imitation Game don't know how to promote family films

Edited January 18, 2015 by Jonwo

[Jack Nevada]

Oh my god you're annoying.

Kiss my ass Coolio

[Noctis]

Kiss my ass Coolio

I wish I did.

[forg]

At least 32M for Saturday? WOW!!!

[La Binoche]

Anything on Still Alice? 

No words re. American Sniper. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

American Sniper is a great box office story too bad the movie wasn't better

[TLK]

 

 

Studiocanal in the UK marketed it quite well and it was a hit, it seems The Weinstein Company while great at promoting serious films like The Imitation Game don't know how to promote family films

 

 

Weinstein company is only good at promoting Oscar-bait movies. They killed so many movies last year but the way they treated Snowpiercer and Begin Again was simply horrible. Both movies had $50 millions+ theatrical potential.

[ecstasy]

American Sniper is a great box office story too bad the movie wasn't better

 

You didn't like it? Thanks

[riczhang]

 

September might do well with Hotel Transylvania 2, the first did $42m OW so I expect a similar figure this time around, perhaps higher.

 

 

Studiocanal in the UK marketed it quite well and it was a hit, it seems The Weinstein Company while great at promoting serious films like The Imitation Game don't know how to promote family films

 

 

 

I think the other thing is that no one expected Paddington to be this good and breakout in the UK so no one put much effort into basically what is an unknown property in the US. 

[Ray G]

I'm thinking it will. 

 

Feb - 50 Shades

Mar - Cinderella, Insurgent

Apr - Furious 7

May - Avengers 2, Tomorrowland 

Jun - Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2 

Jul - Minions, Ant-Man

Aug - none

Sep - none

Oct - none 

Nov - Spectre, Mockingjay 2, Good Dinosaur 

Dec - Star Wars 7

 

If Jungle Book was still in October... but yeah I could see 9 out of 12 months having an OW above $75 million. The contenders (likely or not) listed above. 

 

I think all of these will be huge hits besides Insurgent. 

 

For Aug/Sept/Oct, keep your eye on Crimson Peak (biggest horror release in quite some time) and St. James Place (possibly the second adult drama megahit of the year) to break out. 

[Empire]

I think all of these will be huge hits besides Insurgent. 

 

For Aug/Sept/Oct, keep your eye on Crimson Peak (biggest horror release in quite some time) and St. James Place (possibly the second adult drama megahit of the year) to break out.

I would love it so much if St. James place was a megahit. My second most anticipated movie of the year behind SW7.

[The Panda]

I got to my theater and it's packed, showings are sold out 2-3 hours in advance for Sniper. Wow.

[Jonwo]

I think the other thing is that no one expected Paddington to be this good and breakout in the UK so no one put much effort into basically what is an unknown property in the US. 

 

Paddington is a much loved property in the UK but even its success was kind of unexpected, it managed to outgross all the family films that were released in December and all three were known properties as well. TWC and Open Road have released family films that to be frank are pretty sucky but did well due to the lack of competition, neither are exactly known for family film. Johnny English is another good example, both films flopped in the US but it didn't matter as the OS market more than made for it. I do wonder if Shaun the Sheep will get a US release, it doesn't need one but it could do okay in say August.

[JJ-8]

ok so AS has done:

 

Thurs Sneaks - 5.2m

Fri (main) = 25.2m (30.4m total for friday)

Sat = 32m - 34m (+26% to +35%) so not very frontloaded at all ?

Say 35 to 40% on sunday = 19m to 22m

 

3 day = 81m to 86m 

30% dip to monday ? (13m to 15m)

 

final  4 day of  94m to 101m.

 

Just  my take on the weekend... Ride  Along did similar drops  to this  which is  something i think AS can match.

[Jonwo]

I would love it so much if St. James place was a megahit. My second most anticipated movie of the year behind SW7.

 

St James Place is a bit of a question mark but given how well Captain Phillips did against the juggernaut that was Gravity, I could see it doing $30-35m OW and having a leggy run. 

[MovieMan89]

32-34m Sat?!? Geez, probably 105m or so 4 day then. This is insane.

Edited January 18, 2015 by MovieMan89

[Empire]

St James Place is a bit of a question mark but given how well Captain Phillips did against the juggernaut that was Gravity, I could see it doing $30-35m OW and having a leggy run.

Also, the Spielberg effect. Lincoln made 182M, but its opening was only like 21M though. I think Spielberg + Hanks + great reviews(hopefully) will equal big box office.

[druv10]

ok so AS has done:

 

Thurs Sneaks - 5.2m

Fri (main) = 25.2m (30.4m total for friday)

Sat = 32m - 34m (+26% to +35%) so not very frontloaded at all ?

Say 35 to 40% on sunday = 19m to 22m

 

3 day = 81m to 86m 

30% dip to monday ? (13m to 15m)

 

final  4 day of  94m to 101m.

 

Just  my take on the weekend... Ride  Along did similar drops  to this  which is  something i think AS can match.

 

 

Considering the WOM, stronger hold for Monday should be expected. 

[Jandrew]

You didn't like it? Thanks

I quite like it. If youre debating, then go.