STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | 1131.6 M overseas | 2068.2 M worldwide

[Daxtreme]

Wow, those are some big differences.

 

Transformers 4 takes a sizeable hit.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Daxtreme

[peludo]

7 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Wow, those are some big differences.

 

Transformers 4 takes a sizeable hit.

Transformers 4 appears in the list with current ERs because a big percentage of its original gross was made in markets where ERs have not dropped so much (mainly Asia) in comparison with others where it did not so much money (Europe).

[MinaTakla]

3 hours ago, peludo said:

Quite close to that. I have done the exercise and with Avatar's ER we would have this ranking for OS figures (not adjusted by inflation, just with ERs):

 

1. Avatar: 2.027b

2. Titanic: 1.73b

3. Star Wars 7: 1.419b

4. Furious 7: 1.36b

5. Jurassic World: 1.215b

6. Minions: 1.106b

7. Age of Ultron: 1.095b

8. Frozen: 942m

9. Harry Potter 1: 936m

10. Harry Potter 8: 916m

 

And with today ER:

 

1. Avatar: 1.579b

2. Titanic: 1.378b

3. Star Wars 7: 1.087b

4. Furious 7: 1.049b

5. Jurassic World: 953m

6. Age of Ultron: 857m

7. Minions: 772m

8. Harry Potter 1: 723m

9. Transformers 4: 707m

10. Harry Potter 8: 706m

*: Frozen: 706m

 

So yes, the ER factor is a huge problem right now.

 

As I always say, do not take too seriously these numbers. They are just a indicative figure.

So with today's ER and Avatar's ER, MINIONS is the highest animated grossing film OS ever??

Edited February 1, 2016 by MinaTakla

[peludo]

1 hour ago, MinaTakla said:

So with today's ER and Avatar's ER, MINIONS is the highest animated grossing film OS ever??

The list is clear. You can get your own conclusions. But since we are in Star Wars thread, let's take Minions or any other film debate to other thread.

 

My intention is to show that SW7 is being really damaged because of ER. SW7 will finish 30-40m OS behind F7, when with equal conditions we can see that SW7 ranks #3 with ease in the OS ranking. The difference between both films is changing about $90m in just 8 months (April 2015 - December 2015). In fact, every 2015 big film would fall a 60-110m range in barely 6-8 months. That is huge. For that reason the +1.1b figure of SW7 is even more incredible.

[Elessar]

ER preventing SW7 from topping Titanic is compensation for BOFA not hitting one billion.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

37 minutes ago, peludo said:

The list is clear. You can get your own conclusions. But since we are in Star Wars thread, let's take Minions or any other film debate to other thread.

 

My intention is to show that SW7 is being really damaged because of ER. SW7 will finish 30-40m OS behind F7, when with equal conditions we can see that SW7 ranks #3 with ease in the OS ranking. The difference between both films is changing about $90m in just 8 months (April 2015 - December 2015). In fact, every 2015 big film would fall a 60-110m range in barely 6-8 months. That is huge. For that reason the +1.1b figure of SW7 is even more incredible.

 

How much MJ2 would have made with the same ER of MJ1? 

[KP1025]

Alas, the fluctuating exchange rate is just one of the many variables that make it difficult to compare box office performance fairly. Adjusting for only ER doesn't account for a truly all things equal comparison unless the films you're comparing are released within a close time gap. Past that, there are many other factors to consider (market growth, inflation, etc). Admissions is probably the best measure to compare films, but even that is still not a completely fair comparison if market conditions (China, Latin America, etc) are notably different between two films.

[peludo]

13 hours ago, Elessar said:

ER preventing SW7 from topping Titanic is compensation for BOFA not hitting one billion.

mmm... I do not like Titanic so much. I would had preferred SW7 had beaten Titanic.

[peludo]

12 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

How much MJ2 would have made with the same ER of MJ1? 

This is the Star Wars thread. I will post that info within some minutes here: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/

[peludo]

9 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Alas, the fluctuating exchange rate is just one of the many variables that make it difficult to compare box office performance fairly. Adjusting for only ER doesn't account for a truly all things equal comparison unless the films you're comparing are released within a close time gap. Past that, there are many other factors to consider (market growth, inflation, etc). Admissions is probably the best measure to compare films, but even that is still not a completely fair comparison if market conditions (China, Latin America, etc) are notably different between two films.

Sure. But we are not making adjusted comparisons, just trying to make UNADJUSTED figures more fair in relation with a factor that is not affected by the market, but by the general economy.

 

Let's imagine two films in a certain European market. One released in 2009 and another one in 2015. And both films gross 10 million euros. In 2009 that means 14 million dollars and in 2015, it means 11 million dollars. And we tend to compare dollars figures, so we would say that the 2009 film was bigger than the 2015 one, when both were equal unadjusted. I think it is a good reason for doing it and why we can separate from other factors more dependent on each local market parameters like expansion or inflation.

[James]

On 2/1/2016 at 5:14 AM, TommyA10 said:

This and F7 will probably beat it by a few million tops. That's with $250 million more from China, so clearly TFA is the most popular franchise movie ever internationally (in most markets).

Actually, if you take it by the number of markets not really. People keep talking about that 390m numer from China for FF7, but fail to see that SW made almost 600m from just 5 markets (UK - 176M vs. 60m, Japan - 90m vs. 30m, Germany - 105m vs. 42m, France - 80m vs. 31m). Basically SW7 made 2-3x more in the developed markets and that more than evens out the field. FF7 won in a lot more countries, just not most of the major markets.

[Bluebomb]

11 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Alas, the fluctuating exchange rate is just one of the many variables that make it difficult to compare box office performance fairly. Adjusting for only ER doesn't account for a truly all things equal comparison unless the films you're comparing are released within a close time gap. Past that, there are many other factors to consider (market growth, inflation, etc). Admissions is probably the best measure to compare films, but even that is still not a completely fair comparison if market conditions (China, Latin America, etc) are notably different between two films.

Yeah, in HK, Star Wars 7 was $60-$80 HK ($7.60-$10.25 US) more expensive in IMAX than Avengers 2. IMAX represented over 30% of its gross when typical grosses from IMAX are about 10-15% of its total gross. I am not sure how it was in other markets but if every market experienced this hike in ticket prices then Star Wars 7's gross is massively inflated by extra ticket prices.

[setna]

On 1/2/2016 at 3:58 AM, druv10 said:

It's not meaningless. SW7 is the biggest sequel OS in local currency. ER cost it about 100M+ just from FF7 release window.

 

really?

so bog difference in 6 months?

i didn´t notice at all...then, i´m happy to check with this +100 difference will be over FF7

[setna]

21 hours ago, peludo said:

Quite close to that. I have done the exercise and with Avatar's ER we would have this ranking for OS figures (not adjusted by inflation, just with ERs):

 

1. Avatar: 2.027b

2. Titanic: 1.73b

3. Star Wars 7: 1.419b

4. Furious 7: 1.36b

5. Jurassic World: 1.215b

6. Minions: 1.106b

7. Age of Ultron: 1.095b

8. Frozen: 942m

9. Harry Potter 1: 936m

10. Harry Potter 8: 916m

 

And with today ER:

 

1. Avatar: 1.579b

2. Titanic: 1.378b

3. Star Wars 7: 1.087b

4. Furious 7: 1.049b

5. Jurassic World: 953m

6. Age of Ultron: 857m

7. Minions: 772m

8. Harry Potter 1: 723m

9. Transformers 4: 707m

10. Harry Potter 8: 706m

*: Frozen: 706m

 

So yes, the ER factor is a huge problem right now.

 

As I always say, do not take too seriously these numbers. They are just a indicative figure.

 

WIth this comparison (good job!) we can realize how amazing OS gross of Titanic was... with small China, Russia and other markets that today are much bigger, incredible amazing...

[peludo]

46 minutes ago, setna said:

 

WIth this comparison (good job!) we can realize how amazing OS gross of Titanic was... with small China, Russia and other markets that today are much bigger, incredible amazing...

Well, that figures include the 2012 re-release, where those markets were already big and when China did $150m. But even with that 2012 increase, Titanic's original run was astonishing in nearly every market in the world (it already did $40m in China in 1998 when the market was still minimal) and still remains to be the most attended film ever in many countries.

Edited February 2, 2016 by peludo

[MinaTakla]

16 hours ago, peludo said:

The list is clear. You can get your own conclusions. But since we are in Star Wars thread, let's take Minions or any other film debate to other thread.

 

My intention is to show that SW7 is being really damaged because of ER. SW7 will finish 30-40m OS behind F7, when with equal conditions we can see that SW7 ranks #3 with ease in the OS ranking. The difference between both films is changing about $90m in just 8 months (April 2015 - December 2015). In fact, every 2015 big film would fall a 60-110m range in barely 6-8 months. That is huge. For that reason the +1.1b figure of SW7 is even more incredible.

Yay for MINIONS!! And thanks for the analysis.

[Quigley]

Wait are you sure that Minions is above Age of Ultron in Avatar ER? Were the exchange rates so different in May and July 2015?

[Quigley]

Now that actuals are in, Star Wars earned $13.5M overseas. Excluding China, the drop was a small 30%. If it continues this trajectory it could earn an additional $35-45M, leading to about $1,125-1,135M. Even if say it ends up at $1,140M, it would not be enough to top FF7, but very close and very impressive nontheless. Overall, WW total is headed for slightly more than $2,050M.

[peludo]

29 minutes ago, quigquag33 said:

Wait are you sure that Minions is above Age of Ultron in Avatar ER? Were the exchange rates so different in May and July 2015?

I am moving the debate to: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/?page=7

[TommyA10]

3 hours ago, James said:

Actually, if you take it by the number of markets not really. People keep talking about that 390m numer from China for FF7, but fail to see that SW made almost 600m from just 5 markets (UK - 176M vs. 60m, Japan - 90m vs. 30m, Germany - 105m vs. 42m, France - 80m vs. 31m). Basically SW7 made 2-3x more in the developed markets and that more than evens out the field. FF7 won in a lot more countries, just not most of the major markets.

F7 has significant wins in only a dozen of markets. (Mexico, Brazil, Taiwan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Columbia (updated only till January 17th), Ecuador, Vietnam, Turkey). And only a few of those are relatively big markets.

Take away the highest grossing market from TFA (internationally), and do the same for F7. Which wins? Easy math. Actually take away 5 biggest markets from either and see who wins? Again, win for TFA. (Adjust TFA numbers to mid 2015 exchange rates of course). F7 made slightly more in its 5 biggest intl markets than TFA (due to China of course).