Tuesday Actuals: JW 24.3M | DOWN GOES TDK TUESDAY | Not the Spielberg, Cameron, or Nolan thread!

[DAR]

There needs to be a sticky announcement reminding the same group who brings the issue up every summer: U.S. schools do not get out at the same time.

The last day for NYC schools this year for example is June 26.

 

 

Geez when do they go back October?

[Infernus]

urrrrrghhhhhhhhhhhh I know he didn't mean a 200m second weekend, but he said 500m in 10 days which would have required a 200m 2nd weekend to happen, hence my 200m 2nd weekend post.

Here is his original post

'I'm stoked. If it does hit 400m on Thursday (a real long shot) then 500m in 10 days is in sight'

now do you understand? I didn't seriously think he meant a 200m 2nd weekend, do you get that now?

OMG!!! I never said that you actually believed he meant that. You ofcourse knew it was a typo. What i meant to say is that even through that typo, the post didnt mean a 200m second weekend. The comment said - "if it does 400m by thursday then 500m in 10 days". This goes on to mean that it would make 140m more by thursday and then 100m in the weekend !!

Edited June 17, 2015 by Infernus

[MJL]

There needs to be a sticky announcement reminding the same group who brings the issue up every summer: U.S. schools do not get out at the same time.

The last day for NYC schools this year for example is June 26.

Plus you have some schools that go with m strike and get out later because of it. Tho, as school get out, it slowly puts less emphasis on weekends and more on weekdays. Being in the middle of that switchover "can" soften day to day drops.

Look at it this way. If it was mid summer...a movie would have 100% of it's demographic to draw upon from one day to the next (discounting people who have work obviously). In very late May to late June....it has an increasing % of it's demographic because of school letting out. Can it be measured and predicted against? No, but that's where wild guesstimations come into play.

[kayumanggi]

Sources say #JurassicWorld TUE about even w/ MON. Smashes $250M in record 5days breaking old mark of 6 set by #Avengers.

— Gitesh Pandya (@giteshpandya)

June 17, 2015

[redfirebird2008]

 

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

Sources, lol. Gitesh reads RTH's updates just like we do. We know you're on here, Guru!

[BoxOfficeZ]

I always wonder how many of those "guests" we have in the forums are actually industry insiders waiting for info as well.  

Edited June 17, 2015 by BoxOfficeZ

[Jessie]

OMG!!! I never said that you actually believed he meant that. You ofcourse knew it was a typo. What i meant to say is that even through that typo didnt mean a 200m second weekend. The comment said - "if it does 400m by thursday then 500m in 10 days". This goes on to mean that it would make 140m more by thursday and then 100m in the weekend !!

 

cool

[MJL]

See I don't believe this nonsense that movies cant open high in December. I Am Legend's OW would adjust to about 105m now taking 3d into consideration.

Avatar had the record for biggest opening of all time in December and it was an original film.

All this tells me that no movie has opened massive in Decembers because there hasn't been a film worthy of opening massive yet, it hasn't been tested and Star Wars will show the doubters that a massive OW can take place in December, just like Passion proved a film could open big in Feb, THG proved a film can open big in march and Fast and furious in April.

The general audience don't say to themselves, ah its December, I wont watch this film im eagerly anticipating just yet, ill wait a week or 2. Star wars imo is more likely to break the OW record than open to just 125m.

I agree. It's like putting the cart before the horse for studios. There are no large OW in December (even tho it's very similar to summer with kids being out of school) because studios generally don't put tentpoles that you must "rush out to see" in December. And the reason they do it is because they haven't seen a movie do it before. It's a vicious cycle. There is NOTHING intrinsically about the month of December that eliminates the possibility of a 150m+ OW. It's just there isn't a movie to rush out during that time. That's why we get long legs and crazy drops. Studios have movies there which aren't "rush out to see known property" but are more "if this is an amazing movie, they'll rush out sometime later"

[#ED]

Based on history of mid-June, Friday box office usually has a maximum increase of 90%, with 70% being the average(or so) increase number.

[75Live]

I agree. It's like putting the cart before the horse for studios. There are no large OW in December (even tho it's very similar to summer with kids being out of school) because studios generally don't put tentpoles that you must "rush out to see" in December. And the reason they do it is because they haven't seen a movie do it before. It's a vicious cycle. There is NOTHING intrinsically about the month of December that eliminates the possibility of a 150m+ OW. It's just there isn't a movie to rush out during that time. That's why we get long legs and crazy drops. Studios have movies there which aren't "rush out to see known property" but are more "if this is an amazing movie, they'll rush out sometime later"

 

well the prevailing theories the industry believes and to an extent, are correct, are people are doing so much other stuff during the holidays, from traveling, to shopping, to decorating, etc, etc, that less people are spending money or their time on movies.

 

now like you and others have said, if you stick a major tentpole and good movie there, all those reasons could be destroyed

 

this is why so many are interested to see what SW does.  Not just the obvious reasons, but to see if it bucks the "December trend"

Edited June 17, 2015 by 75live

[MJL]

Based on history of mid-June, Friday box office usually has a maximum increase of 90%, with 70% being the average(or so) increase number.

So if this is "average" then anything 17m+ means around a 30m Friday (I hope)

[#ED]

However, Inside Out currently sits at 100% on RT with 52 reviews with some like NYDAILYNEWS calling it the best Pixar movie ever. 

[redfirebird2008]

well the prevailing theories the industry believes and to an extent, are correct, is people are doing so much other stuff during the holidays, from traveling, to shopping, to decorating, etc, etc, that less people are spending money or their time on movies.

 

now like you and others have said, if you stick a major tentpole and good movie there, all those reasons could be destroyed

 

this is why so many are interested to see what SW does.  Not just the obvious reasons, but to see if it bucks the "December trend"

 

It would be nice to see them start changing the release schedule. Way too many movies get piled on top of each other during the summer weeks. How about putting some of these big movies in February or other supposed "off" months? Seems like it would be good for the industry if they do a better job of spreading big properties throughout the schedule.

[JohnnyGossamer]

However, Inside Out currently sits at 100% on RT with 52 reviews with some like NYDAILYNEWS calling it the best Pixar movie ever. 

I'm pretty jazzed for the release of both Inside Out and Minions. Promising summer for blockbuster animated fare. Can't wait. Are you only checking out Minions? Or, do you plan to see Inside Out as well?

[PDC1987]

Today the decrease is gonna be quite harsh. The spillover from the weekend is over and yesterday was discount Tuesday which helped the movie staying flat.

But last night's game was a potential clincher going in to it unlike Sunday night and there were more people sold out last night.

[MJL]

well the prevailing theories the industry believes and to an extent, are correct, is people are doing so much other stuff during the holidays, from traveling, to shopping, to decorating, etc, etc, that less people are spending money or their time on movies.

now like you and others have said, if you stick a major tentpole and good movie there, all those reasons could be destroyed

this is why so many are interested to see what SW does. Not just the obvious reasons, but to see if it bucks the "December trend"

I agree to an extent, but there also other factors on why a movie "could" break out. There's vacations in summer that take away from an OW that offset December being a busy time, people are already in malls where movie theaters are located making it easy to combine with their day, and winter is usually horrible outside and outside of holiday stuff...there is much less to do on a day off

[#ED]

I'm pretty jazzed for the release of both Inside Out and Minions. Promising summer for blockbuster animated fare. Can't wait. Are you only checking out Minions? Or, do you plan to see Inside Out as well?

 

Minions. I don't have much time for theaters ATM, so Minions it is. 

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

Wow. So happy for the success of this franchise.

[PDC1987]

I always wonder how many of those "guests" we have in the forums are actually industry insiders waiting for info as well.  

Well we know the people at Deadline aren't among them lol.

[peludo]

RotK did $125M for its five day opening in 2003. I'd say $125M+ OW is Episode VII's floor. I honestly can't imagine it doing less than $150M+ OW.

In fact, if we adjust we have that ROTK did $167m for the 5-day opening, how much would it mean with 3D, $180-185m? We will never know what would have happened if it had opened on Friday, but you are right about that it is difficult to think that SW7 can open lower than $150m with these antecedents, considering that SW is a bigger draw DOM than LOTR.