Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[Spidey Freak]

Unless there's more surprise.. like MJ2 having huge increase over CF...

 

If MJ2 performs like DH2 to MJ1's DH1, then that is a very real possibility. AoU getting locked out of domestic Top 3 for the year would be INSANE.

[DavidBrennan]

I'm not seeing how this has that much more competition. It's not like IO competes for the same audience that JW are. If it has more competition it's more down to that Ted and especially Terminator coming up.

 

IO is competing for almost exactly the same audience as JW: families.  Massive overlap, with IO just skewing a bit younger and more female.

[DAJK]

If MJ2 performs like DH2 to MJ1's DH1, then that is a very real possibility. AoU getting locked out of domestic Top 3 for the year would be INSANE.

Thinking back to when we thought it would WIN the year!

[MovieMan89]

MJ2 will definitely open to 150m+ like the first two. MJ1 is looking more and more by the day like a casualty of the void that was 2014.

[grim22]

If MJ2 performs like DH2 to MJ1's DH1, then that is a very real possibility. AoU getting locked out of domestic Top 3 for the year would be INSANE.

 

MJ2 doesn't have the 3D bump though. If it had 3D as well, I would have said a 160M+ opening was pretty much locked. Without 3D, it will see a smaller bump as opposed to the DH1 to DH2 bump.

[kayumanggi]

All movies have competition.  Speaking practically, AVTR didn't have much competition, and zero compared to the monsters facing JW.

 

How can you say it's zero where in fact AATC II and SHERLOCK HOLMES made more than 400 M combined. THE BLIND SIDE was also making a lot of money during that period.

[BK007]

All movies have competition.  Speaking practically, AVTR didn't have much competition, and zero compared to the monsters facing JW.

 

What revisionist nonsense.

 

Sherlock Holmes and Alvin made a shittonne on its second weekend. 

 

What makes Jurassic World impressive is that it is doing it in a busy time of year. Christmas holidays market expands to encompass everything + Avengers/Ultron and many other record openers had no competition at all second weekend. 

 

It's hilarious. Ultron faced Hot fucking Pursuit and Jurassic World faces Inside Out. 

[Asyulus]

MJ2 doesn't have the 3D bump though. If it had 3D as well, I would have said a 160M+ opening was pretty much locked. Without 3D, it will see a smaller bump as opposed to the DH1 to DH2 bump.

3D share was much lower.

[kayumanggi]

FIVE of the top 10 films in 2009 were November/December releases.

 

1	Avatar	Fox	$749,766,139	3,461	$77,025,481	3,452	12/18	8/12
2	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$402,111,870	4,293	$108,966,307	4,234	6/24	10/15
3	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$301,959,197	4,455	$77,835,727	4,325	7/15	12/17
4	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Sum.	$296,623,634	4,124	$142,839,137	4,024	11/20	4/1
5	Up	BV	$293,004,164	3,886	$68,108,790	3,766	5/29	11/5
6	The Hangover	WB	$277,322,503	3,545	$44,979,319	3,269	6/5	12/17
7	Star Trek	Par.	$257,730,019	4,053	$75,204,289	3,849	5/8	10/1
8	The Blind Side	WB	$255,959,475	3,407	$34,119,372	3,110	11/20	6/3
9	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	Fox	$219,614,612	3,747	$48,875,415	3,700	12/23	5/20
10	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$209,028,679	3,626	$62,304,277	3,626	12/25	4/29

 

[grim22]

3D share was much lower.

 

With it going in IMAX and LPF 3D versions, even a 40% 3D share would be a nice bump, whatever little that bump would have been will no longer be seen by the movie. No idea why they scrapped 3D domestically considering it is releasing in 3D OS.

[Dale Cooper]

IO is competing for almost exactly the same audience as JW: families.  Massive overlap, with IO just skewing a bit younger and more female.

Yes, JW primary target audience is the same as IO's. Good we got that cleared up. Phew.

[kayumanggi]

I doubt FIVE movies enter the top 10 this year from the May/June period.

[Dale Cooper]

How can you say it's zero where in fact AATC II and SHERLOCK HOLMES made more than 400 M combined. THE BLIND SIDE was also making a lot of money during that period.

Funny thing about it is that Sherlock + Alvin opened to what, 110m combined? And that's 6 years ago without 3D. So I'd say it had pretty tough competition.

[dxmatrixdt]

Jurassic:  (30.71), +27.5% (39.15), -4.4% (37.43)

Inside Out: 3.7 + 29.60, +4% (30.78), -14% (26.44)

 

-49% - Jurassic World - 107.28 - 403.49

new - Inside Out - 90.51 - 90.51

-34% - Spy - 10.33 - 74.20

-28% - San Andreas - 7.73 - 131.72

new - Dope - 6.21 - 6.21

-43% - Insidious 3 - 4.20 - 45.46

-40% - Pitch Perfect 2 - 3.82 - 177.98

-34% - Mad Max - 2.70 - 143.49

-32% - Avengers - 2.49 - 447.27

-35% - Tomorrowland - 2.26 - 87.95

-56% - Entourage - 1.83 - 27.55

[Asyulus]

Jurassic:  (30.71), +27.5% (39.15), -4.4% (37.43)

Inside Out: 3.7 + 29.60, +4% (30.78), -14% (26.44)

 

-49% - Jurassic World - 107.28 - 403.49

new - Inside Out - 90.51 - 90.51

-34% - Spy - 10.33 - 74.20

-28% - San Andreas - 7.73 - 131.72

new - Dope - 6.21 - 6.21

-43% - Insidious 3 - 4.20 - 45.46

-40% - Pitch Perfect 2 - 3.82 - 177.98

-34% - Mad Max - 2.70 - 143.49

-32% - Avengers - 2.49 - 447.27

-35% - Tomorrowland - 2.26 - 87.95

-56% - Entourage - 1.83 - 27.55

Good numbers for JW and IO.

[DavidBrennan]

 

FIVE of the top 10 films in 2009 were November/December releases.

 

1 Avatar Fox $749,766,139 3,461 $77,025,481 3,452 12/18 8/12 2 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $402,111,870 4,293 $108,966,307 4,234 6/24 10/15 3 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB $301,959,197 4,455 $77,835,727 4,325 7/15 12/17 4 The Twilight Saga: New Moon Sum. $296,623,634 4,124 $142,839,137 4,024 11/20 4/1 5 Up BV $293,004,164 3,886 $68,108,790 3,766 5/29 11/5 6 The Hangover WB $277,322,503 3,545 $44,979,319 3,269 6/5 12/17 7 Star Trek Par. $257,730,019 4,053 $75,204,289 3,849 5/8 10/1 8 The Blind Side WB $255,959,475 3,407 $34,119,372 3,110 11/20 6/3 9 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox $219,614,612 3,747 $48,875,415 3,700 12/23 5/20 10 Sherlock Holmes WB $209,028,679 3,626 $62,304,277 3,626 12/25 4/29

 

 

 

AVTR was late December.  In modern box office, a month prior is irrelevant. 

 

You're claiming Twilight was competition for AVTR? 

 

Cool.  Then I'm counting AOU as competition for JW.  So, once again, JW faces vastly stiffer competition than AVTR.

[keysersoze123]

Avatar did face competition in ts 2nd frame but that was christmas when market expanded to let everything do well. Post that weekend nothing worthwhile released till MLK weekend when Book of Eli opened and even that was not that big a film. So it stayed number 1 until when Dear John opened in Early Feb.

[DavidBrennan]

It's an absurd claim. 

 

JW is facing what will very likely be a top 10 animated movie of all time (possibly top 5), a surefire kiddie smash, and, to cut out its legs, to formidable franchises aimed directly at the older audience that gives movies legs in the first place (Ted 2 and T5). 

 

Conversely, AVTR had utterly generic Christmas break fare.  It's not even worth discussing.

[wildphantom]

Just woke up to these numbers. Wow.

The weekend is riding on how much Jurassic jumps on Saturday. What a night of excitement in store tonight!!!

[vc2002]

All movies have competition.  Speaking practically, AVTR didn't have much competition, and zero compared to the monsters facing JW.

 

Avatar had to face the biggest competition that is called "no fanbase and low awareness" which made it gross on the OW less than JW did in a single day. This "competition" is particularly heavy in an era that movies get more and more frontloaded.