CIVIL WAR OS | $744M OS | $1.15B WW

[Quigley]

32 minutes ago, kswiston said:

Pretty close to Iron man 3, and ahead of both Avengers I believe. Of course, China messes things up. 

 

It might even surpass Iron Man 3 ($502.8M) when actuals come in.

[Fullbuster]

On 07/05/2016 at 2:42 AM, FilmBuff said:

How the fuck can there be superhero fatigue when 3 of the top 5 movies WW this year are SH films? Soon to be 4 of 6.

 

There is no fatigue at all, it was only in haters' minds. It's like talking about comedy fatigue or animation fatigue, it won't happen, comicbook movies are a new genre and it is here to stay.

[Fullbuster]

3 hours ago, Heat Vision said:

Is doing much better in Asian markets than BvS. BvS would have been in the mid 900 million range of it would have performed better in Asian markets. Is going to beat BvS by a good 300 million total at least.

I remember last year, people telling BVS would crush CW and nobody doubting it..

[Heretic]

14 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

I find the way common (not extreme) weather affects theater going so heavily in Europe fascinating.  

It was the first properly warm weekend of the year. In the UK particularly, outdoor activities take priority over everything else when the weather is nice, probably due to our unpredictable climate. Unlike a lot of countries, there's no such thing as a guaranteed 'summer' here.

[Agafin]

This movie's potential and WOM have been vastly overrated in these boards. It always seemed more like an $850 to $900 million grosser than $1B+ to me. It kept holding (slightly) worse than AoU and IM3 all week and I said that it will likely end the week with a similar OS total as IM3 (about $500m) which it did. So far, the numbers are suggesting that either it's WOM isn't that great or its ceiling as a pseudo avengers movie is lower than most thought.

 

China will probably add another $100 million or so while the rest of the OS markets will push it to Iron Man 3 numbers (sans China) for an overall total between $850 and $875 million OS. A very good result for this movie.

[ecstasy]

Just now, Heretic said:

It was the first properly warm weekend of the year. In the UK particularly, outdoor activities take priority over everything else when the weather is nice, probably due to our unpredictable climate. Unlike a lot of countries, there's no such thing as a guaranteed 'summer' here.

Wow. I don't blame you guys. I live in California now but grew up in the midwest. Nothing like the outdoors after being cooped up due to cold and gloomy weather.

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Agafin said:

This movie's potential and WOM have been vastly overrated in these boards. It always seemed more like an $850 to $900 million grosser than $1B+ to me. It kept holding (slightly) worse than AoU and IM3 all week and I said that it will likely end the week with a similar OS total as IM3 (about $500m) which it did. So far, the numbers are suggesting that either it's WOM isn't that great or its ceiling as a pseudo avengers movie is lower than most thought.

 

China will probably add another $100 million or so while the rest of the OS markets will push it to Iron Man 3 numbers (sans China) for an overall total between $850 and $875 million OS. A very good result for this movie.

From what I read today (the entire thread) that's not true. The movie is within the median forecasts or higher. No disappointment at all, on the contrary.

[Sam]

No market breakdown yet? 

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

This movie's potential and WOM have been vastly overrated in these boards. It always seemed more like an $850 to $900 million grosser than $1B+ to me. It kept holding (slightly) worse than AoU and IM3 all week and I said that it will likely end the week with a similar OS total as IM3 (about $500m) which it did. So far, the numbers are suggesting that either it's WOM isn't that great or its ceiling as a pseudo avengers movie is lower than most thought.

 

China will probably add another $100 million or so while the rest of the OS markets will push it to Iron Man 3 numbers (sans China) for an overall total between $850 and $875 million OS. A very good result for this movie.

 

Vastly overrated is not overrating something by 12-15% tops and making about $1.3b is not what I would just call very good.

[Fullbuster]

9 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Wow. I don't blame you guys. I live in California now but grew up in the midwest. Nothing like the outdoors after being cooped up due to cold and gloomy weather.

 

In Northern France we have the same weather than in England so I can tell that's sometimes depressing : we're never sure of what we should wear, temperatures can swing from 0°C to 16°C within the same day, 1 hour of warm &sunny weather followed by 1 hour of strong rains.

[Agafin]

Just now, Fullbuster said:

From what I read today (the entire thread) that's not true. The movie is within the median forecasts or higher. No disappointment at all, on the contrary.

 

Almost everybody in this thread expected this movie to have better legs than AoU, which so far is not the case. I think you need to reread the thread. Or should I start a quote chain?

[Agafin]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

Vastly overrated is not overrating something by 12-15% tops

 

For a casual person, sure it's not. But for a box office nerd (like all of us here) it is. Otherwise, why would people react so dramatically to CW opening to $180m instead of $200m even though it's just a 10% difference?

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Almost everybody in this thread expected this movie to have better legs than AoU, which so far is not the case. I think you need to reread the thread. Or should I start a quote chain?

How can you know its legs are worse than AOU? You can't know that before the end of its run! Don't compare apples with oranges.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

For a casual person, sure it's not. But for a box office nerd (like all of us here) it is. Otherwise, why would people react so dramatically to CW opening to $180m instead of $200m even though it's just a 10% difference?

 

Some people overact, others who have far more common sense don't.

 

People, especially B.O nerds tend to like milestones and records and certain round numbers but that doesn't make failure to hit a certain round number a disappointment for any but the very easily disappointment.

[TalismanRing]

Quote

 

Overseas Update:

Captain America: Civil War continued to dominate overseas with an estimated $220.0 million from 55 territories.  The film’s second weekend of overseas release was highlighted by its $95.8 million launch in China.  Captain America: Civil War has already grossed $496.6 million overseas and $678.4 million globally.  Key grosses to date for individual markets include the mentioned $95.8 million take from China, $53.9 million in Korea, $40.4 million in the United Kingdom, $34.3 million in Mexico, $25.2 million in Brazil, $17.9 million in Australia, $17.0 million in Japan and $16.6 million in France.

 

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-estimates-captain-america-civil-war-claims-fifth-largest-domestic-opening-weekend-time-181-8m/

 

[Agafin]

Just now, Fullbuster said:

How can you know its legs are worse than AOU? You can't know that before the end of its run! Don't compare apples with oranges.

 

It's been two weeks already (OS). It's second weekend holds in Europe are by far worse (weather probably didn't help but then again most movies has slimmer drops so that's not the only reason). It's also holding worse in asian countries like South Korea (opened bigger but will soon start trailing AoU) and possibly HK. It's internal OW holds in some countries like Russia or it's relatively huge Sunday drop in China aren't very encouraging either.  I also did a comparison with Iron Man 3 earlier this week (you must've read it a few pages back) which shows that it's also holding worse than that movie.

 

The signs are there.

[TalismanRing]

You have to take into account things like weather (yes a big deal in some countries) and holidays (May Day, Bank Days, Cinco De Mayo, Children's Daysetc ),  In SK AOU's second w/e was over a Holiday w/e so it dropped less.  It dropped a huge 65.8% in it's third w/e because of it's softer 2nd w/e while CW may not.   

 

Also looking at totals we have to look at exchange rates.  Deadline said when breaking down territories that AOU's $946m would equate to $893m with current exchange rates.  (I think I pointed this out earlier).  The difference from IM3's 2013 O/S exchange rates to current day is a far greater discrepancy so it' not a matter of CW just doing the same business O/S - China if the totals are near the same.

[moviesRus]

$800m OS for this would be great. If it can to $900m then even better. 

[James]

Yeah, 800-830m-ish (IM3 territory) is where this seems to be headed right know. The drop this weekend was worse than I thought it would be. UK, Brazil and SK also seem to fall from AoU. Is there any major market where it will actually finish ahead? 

[TalismanRing]

To only make $800m O/S it would need to do about $80-100m under IM3 in all non China markets and I don't see that happening even with the lower exchange rate

 

It made $220m this w/e.  I really don't think it's only going to do another $300m off of that. 

 

BvS made about another $300m off a $242m opening and it dropped like a rock in most markets with about a 1.65 multiplier in China and I think even worse in Russia.