fmpro Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 16 minutes ago, FilmBuff said: Fmpro I meant 1.35 billion WW. Ahhh. You just replied "Not really" to TommyA10's response that 1,04B OS was way to high... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, FilmBuff said: Fmpro I meant 1.35 billion WW. But 1,35 is a very likely number atp... I agree.. But its not doing much higher.. It looks like it will be closer to 1,3 than 1,4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 (edited) With a 178 opening and 2.5-2.6 multiplier we have 445-462 DOM. Winter Soldier had a 2.73 opening to half of CW. I see it a reasonable range, although the 2.6 factor maybe optimistic. But we will see it better next days and with 2nd weekend drop. Overseas, let's say 200 from China (1.3b Yuan). And excluding China it was at 400 by yesterday after a 125m 2nd weekend. Let's say it makes another 250 (x3 multiplier since this weekend, what would be quite good considering Apocalypse comes soon). IMHO, 450 DOM (2.52 multiplier) + 850 OS = 1.3b WW, just in the middle between IM3 (1.215b) and AoU (1.405b). No matter how you look at it: great performance. Edited May 9, 2016 by peludo 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 58 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: Just playing with the numbers. Putting in the OW estimate of 181.8 mil in my spreadsheet, giving it fairly standard weekend drops and weekly multipliers, I end up with 490 mil domestic finish. Unless it gets incredible and unexpected legs, that is not likely. Both Winter Soldier and Civil War have been similarly received by both critics and audiences. There is not a logical reason for Civil War, opening double than Winter Soldier, making a better multiplier. Get ready for something between TDKR (448) and Ultron (459). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 (edited) OS total went down 2.6m, Mojo has $494.0 million now +179.14 domestic = $673 million I think it'll reach up to 1,300 million but won't get over. Edited May 9, 2016 by IMojammer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 looks like Civil War also had a harsh drop in Australia. Was there warm weather there too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 looks like it dropped harshly in Mexico too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 33 minutes ago, John Marston said: looks like Civil War also had a harsh drop in Australia. Was there warm weather there too? Well, sure. But Australia gets a fuckton of sun, just like the sunbelt of the USA. People won't avoid the cinemas because it's nice out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Applying the actual domestic OW of 179.1 mil Domestic 442,631,410 32% Overseas 940,591,746 68% Worldwide 1,383,223,156 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 20 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: Applying the actual domestic OW of 179.1 mil Domestic 442,631,410 32% Overseas 940,591,746 68% Worldwide 1,383,223,156 looks like the 800m range seems more realistic for overseas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 19 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: Applying the actual domestic OW of 179.1 mil Domestic 442,631,410 32% Overseas 940,591,746 68% Worldwide 1,383,223,156 Well over Iron Man 3, so that's good. Hopefully Harry Potter DH2 is going down too. Excelsior! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 1 hour ago, John Marston said: looks like the 800m range seems more realistic for overseas something along these lines? Domestic 442,631,410 35% Overseas 822,029,761 65% Worldwide 1,264,661,171 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: something along these lines? Domestic 442,631,410 35% Overseas 822,029,761 65% Worldwide 1,264,661,171 maybe or a little more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 (edited) I'm waiting for the Monday numbers, state side and OS, but at this point I don't think 1.3b WW is happening. Even Latin America countries look at medium-big drops from AoU. It will lose about 40m from AoU just in China. 1.25b should happen if it doesn't fall of the cliff OS next week because of X-Men. Edited May 10, 2016 by James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 It's not holding as well as CA2, right now 800M OS is the target, we'll have a clear picture this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purple Minion Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Across the pond: ‘Captain America: Civil War’ Monday Higher Than ‘Avengers: Age Of Ultron’ https://t.co/bS7n20ajVJ— Deadline Hollywood (@Deadline) 10 May 2016 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 6 hours ago, James said: I'm waiting for the Monday numbers, state side and OS, but at this point I don't think 1.3b WW is happening. Even Latin America countries look at medium-big drops from AoU. It will lose about 40m from AoU just in China. 1.25b should happen if it doesn't fall of the cliff OS next week because of X-Men. X-Men comes out the week after Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Purple Minion said: Across the pond: You see guys? Patience Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 (edited) The Monday drop (-68.5%) in the US&Can is the third-best among summer starters superhero films since 2003. Only the first Avengers dropped less (-67%) and Thor (-68%). The latter's first Sunday was also Mother's Day. However, even if the Sunday gross was $45M as originally projected (assuming it was lower because of Mother's Day), the drop would have been 70.3%, still much better than most summer starter superhero films (most importantly, it's way better than Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron). Dunno how much we can make of this gross but hopefully it means that its drops will be more similar to Avengers rather than Age of Ultron. Edited May 10, 2016 by Quigley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 10, 2016 Share Posted May 10, 2016 Will be another 100 million weekend overseas easily with China and some stabilization and no competition. I would say 665overseas by sunday Likely more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
