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Asyulus

CIVIL WAR OS | $744M OS | $1.15B WW

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Too early for this thread. OS threads are supposed to be opened 6 months prior to release.

Oh and I forgot it!

 

I though it is within 1 year or less.

 

Anyway, your prediction for the Civil War OS?

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Hard to say. Theoretically if Iron Man 3 can make 800M then a film with him AND cap AND a bunch of other avengers should make more but IM3 was also riding high on the huge Avengers hype wave and just Captain America being in the title instead of Iron Man could hurt it a bit. I'm going to say 700-800

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I dare say that it will do AOU numbers, aka $950M.  

 

Quote

 

IM3 did $805M with $121M in China, so basicly $685M pre chinese take.  

TA did $895M with $92M in China, so basicly $800M pre chinese take

AOU did $946M with $240M in China, so basicly $705M pre chinese Take

 

 

It shows that IM alone is able to pull off avengeresque type of numbers abroad and that China can make the difference.

 

I therefore think that the combination of having IM, Spiderman, an increasingly popular CA, the inflation price, the lesser exchange rate and a potential better movie could push those IM3 $685M pre China to around $700 - $715M at least before China adds in when it comes to CA:Civil War.

 

China could overtake AOU's $240M and ends up somewhere between $250 - $280M if the movie really deliver and the current hype post the last trailer translates very well.

 

I think it will open around im3/AOU in a lot of territories but have better legs than AOU overall and claim the number one CBM in China, pushing the BO in the vicinity of AOU's numbers.

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2 hours ago, Arlborn said:

I think it will get to 1 billion. If the movie is as good as people say it is then its legs should carry it over 1b OS.

 

250m from China

800m from the rest

What would be the breakdown, at least for main markets, for this? It implies $100m more than Ultron outside China and US. With similar exchange rates, I do not see where it can come from. I could see more likely 350 in China and 700 in the rest of the countries (even thinking it will not happen).

 

Right now, thinking in 800s.

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6 hours ago, peludo said:

What would be the breakdown, at least for main markets, for this? It implies $100m more than Ultron outside China and US. With similar exchange rates, I do not see where it can come from. I could see more likely 350 in China and 700 in the rest of the countries (even thinking it will not happen).

 

Right now, thinking in 800s.

My thinking was simplistic, really. I'm thinking it'll have AOU numbers in China and Avengers numbers elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

My thinking was simplistic, really. I'm thinking it'll have AOU numbers in China and Avengers numbers elsewhere.

Exchange rates are noticeably worse than in 2012 (around 15% for euro), so it'll need more tickets for the same amount of $$$. AOU had some pretty steep drops in several markets, and I don't know where that big increase is going to come from, unless it does $350 million in China. I think $550m domestic and $950m foreign is the ceiling. 

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4 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Exchange rates are noticeably worse than in 2012 (around 15% for euro), so it'll need more tickets for the same amount of $$$. AOU had some pretty steep drops in several markets, and I don't know where that big increase is going to come from, unless it does $350 million in China. I think $550m domestic and $950m foreign is the ceiling. 

I was aware but I'm just counting on the hype and WOM to just about make up for that. It's fine if I'm proven wrong, but I've got the feeling the actual final numbers won't differ much from my predictions, we'll see.

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Hi, my first post here.

 

Got my tickets for 27 April. Movies generally open on Wednesday here in Indonesia, and it's a full-day schedule, not just late night previews.

Booked my tickets on Saturday, had a bit of trouble because some shows are sold out already.

This is looking to explode, bigger than AoU.

 

Running my numbers for OS:

851 million on the low side, 1.062 billion on the high side.

Add the 500 million from domestic for worldwide numbers.

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17 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said:

Hi, my first post here.

 

Got my tickets for 27 April. Movies generally open on Wednesday here in Indonesia, and it's a full-day schedule, not just late night previews.

Booked my tickets on Saturday, had a bit of trouble because some shows are sold out already.

This is looking to explode, bigger than AoU.

 

Running my numbers for OS:

851 million on the low side, 1.062 billion on the high side.

Add the 500 million from domestic for worldwide numbers.

 

Welcome to Box Office Theory Newbie !

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