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vc2002

Thursday numbers: RTH IO 9.5,JP4 8.9

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If JW follows a typical pattern of the last weekend in June, it will do something like:

 

Friday:  13.6 (+51%)

St:  19.7 (+45%)

Sun: 16.3 (-20%)

 

49.6 mill, total after Sunday will be about 496 million.  Terrible sign for sure.

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It might not beat Avatar domestic.

 

What a shame.

 

It might not and it might.  No one was really thinking that.  Most are saying it will pass Avengers with a chance to pass Titanic.  Avatar is pretty much unobtainable.  760 million is so much more than 630.  I think many of us want to see it pass Avengers but are not delusional enough to think it will pass Avatar.

 

And most of us had it around or under 300 mill at the beginning of the summer.

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Where is JW looking to finish, then?

 

If I had to guess, I'd say it starts dropping in the high 30's to low 40's after this.  So a pure guess would be:

 

After this weekend:  495 mill

 

Weekend 4:  30 mill

Weekend 5: 19.5

Weekend 6: 13

Weekend 7:  7

Weekend 8: 5

Weekend 9: 3.5

Weekend 10:  2

 

That's 80 mill from weekends alone.  Add in say another 50 mill from week days and you have about 630 mill.  So imho, probably 625-650 mill.

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What a shame.

 

It might not and it might.  No one was really thinking that.  Most are saying it will pass Avengers with a chance to pass Titanic.  Avatar is pretty much unobtainable.  760 million is so much more than 630.  I think many of us want to see it pass Avengers but are not delusional enough to think it will pass Avatar.

 

And most of us had it around or under 300 mill at the beginning of the summer.

 

I see what you did there...

ywpPHgu.gif

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If JW follows a typical pattern of the last weekend in June, it will do something like:

 

Friday:  13.6 (+51%)

St:  19.7 (+45%)

Sun: 16.3 (-20%)

 

49.6 mill, total after Sunday will be about 496 million.  Terrible sign for sure.

 

Friday jump should be around 60% with similar jumps to your projection on Sat/Sun gets you 51.5M weekend. 

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Friday jump should be around 60% with similar jumps to your projection on Sat/Sun gets you 51.5M weekend. 

 

Perhaps.  But looking at other June jumps, it suggests it could be around 50%.

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If I had to guess, I'd say it starts dropping in the high 30's to low 40's after this. So a pure guess would be:

After this weekend: 495 mill

Weekend 4: 30 mill

Weekend 5: 19.5

Weekend 6: 13

Weekend 7: 7

Weekend 8: 5

Weekend 9: 3.5

Weekend 10: 2

That's 80 mill from weekends alone. Add in say another 50 mill from week days and you have about 630 mill. So imho, probably 625-650 mill.

Late run has too small of drops

Ant-Man, Pixels, MI5, and F4 should hurt JW's late legs

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