Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

[filmlover]

I actually think Trainwreck will hold superbly and have Knocked Up-style legs in the weeks ahead, especially given the lack of direct competition (Pixels is a completely different kind of comedy and I still can't get a grasp on how it will perform, while buzz for Vacation seems low as it heads into the home stretch).

[a2k]

What's the one comedy that people have been talking about all summer long? Which comedy has been getting all the attention?

 

Anybody answering anything other than Ghostbusters to those questions has no clue what they're talking about. Ghostbusters is going to be huge. Certainly not Jurassic World 600M huge, but I can see maybe even 300M, if it's really good. But even if it's "just okay" or "so-so", it could still hit 200M.

 

200m is a lock. Ghostbusters vs Hangover will be a fun club.

EDIT: Why even bring up JW That's a beast. Lots of layers of bo between 300m and JW.

Edited July 17, 2015 by a2k

[Mr Terrific]

Thank you for the responses.

[BenedictL11]

What's the one comedy that people have been talking about all summer long? Which comedy has been getting all the attention?

 

Anybody answering anything other than Ghostbusters to those questions has no clue what they're talking about. Ghostbusters is going to be huge. Certainly not Jurassic World 600M huge, but I can see maybe even 300M, if it's really good. But even if it's "just okay" or "so-so", it could still hit 200M.

Based on talk from my friends, definitely Trainwreck.

[Dementeleus]

The low to mid 20s est for AM, does that include the 6.4 from previews?

 

It always does unless explicitly stated otherwise.

[kitik]

EDIT: Why even bring up JW

 

 

Because it's a famous old franchise that is making it's grand return.

 

 

 

200m is a lock.

 

I'm not sure I'd call it a 100% lock before seeing a trailer or any reaction to said trailer, but it looks like Sony is finally going to have a hit on their hands.

[a2k]

If Minions makes less than 16.8m today, it will be an anomaly or sorts. Don't think many animations have had their 1st Friday lower than 1st Tuesday. DM2, TS3, IO didn't by a 10%+ margin.

[Finnick]

Ant-man 65,  Trainwreck 37

 

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/622145834239393792

[a2k]

Wake me up when we get Rth or Gopher's updates.

the red capes will come..the red capes will come

[a2k]

If Trainwreck gets 37m ow, 4x gives it 148m. Tele should make a Trainwreck over MI:5 club.

EDIT: I will go In.

Edited July 17, 2015 by a2k

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

The first rule of thumb when attempting to project a solid number from previews is simply not to make an attempt. And if you do decide to risk making an attempt, the first rule of thumb is DO NOT pick a movie from an entirely different season. Someone please tell Keith Simanton.

[samsha22]

If Trainwreck gets 37m ow, 4x gives it 148m. Tele should make a Trainwreck over MI:5 club.

EDIT: I will go In.

imo, MI-5 should easily do 170+. Ant Man vs MI will be better..

[bladels]

If Minions makes less than 16.8m today, it will be an anomaly or sorts. Don't think many animations have had their 1st Friday lower than 1st Tuesday. DM2, TS3, IO didn't by a 10%+ margin.

To make more than 16.8, Minions has to jump bigger than 77% today. That doesn't seem possible.

My guess is 14.7M

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

"Low to mid 20s"

 

So using GOTG as a guide:

 

THU 6.4m

FRI 17.1m(23.5m)

SAT 19.8m(-15%)

SUN 16.2m(-18%)

 

59.5m

 

Lets hope the FRI number is at least a couple million higher.

[RyneOh1040]

This is just a great weekend at the box office period.  

 

Lololol at anyone saying this is 'ok' for Ant Man, this was near the ceiling for it.  Easily the toughest sell so far in the Marvel Universe and could have definitely underperformed.

 

Schumer looks to be the real deal.  I surprisingly know very little of her material (don't get Comedy Central) but I saw an interview with her on Ellen recently and I lost it.  I've also never seen Ellen laugh that much interviewing someone.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

This is just a great weekend at the box office period.  

 

Lololol at anyone saying this is 'ok' for Ant Man, this was near the ceiling for it.  Easily the toughest sell so far in the Marvel Universe and could have definitely underperformed.

 

Schumer looks to be the real deal.  I surprisingly know very little of her material (don't get Comedy Central) but I saw an interview with her on Ellen recently and I lost it.  I've also never seen Ellen laugh that much interviewing someone.

 

 

Honestly, I'm not going to get on some kind of "bash the little guy" bandwagon, but considering Marvel STUDIOS' record post Avengers, I would think a Fantastic Four/Hulk/XFC level would be the absolute basement for a movie about a guy who runs around with a paper bag on his head.

 

[Avatree]

This is just a great weekend at the box office period.  

 

Lololol at anyone saying this is 'ok' for Ant Man, this was near the ceiling for it.  Easily the toughest sell so far in the Marvel Universe and could have definitely underperformed.

 

Schumer looks to be the real deal.  I surprisingly know very little of her material (don't get Comedy Central) but I saw an interview with her on Ellen recently and I lost it.  I've also never seen Ellen laugh that much interviewing someone.

I just found that interview. Schumer isn't funny at all but Ellen's laugh is hysterical.

[RyneOh1040]

Honestly, I'm not going to get on some kind of "bash the little guy" bandwagon, but considering Marvel STUDIOS' record post Avengers, I would think a Fantastic Four/Hulk/XFC level would be the absolute basement for a movie about a guy who runs around with a paper bag on his head.

 

I honestly think this could have ended in the 40's, but that's just my opinion.  This is a much, much lesser known property to the general public and Rudd is in no way a draw.

[RyneOh1040]

I just found that interview. Schumer isn't funny at all but Ellen's laugh is hysterical.

Oh man, I thought she killed that interview.  But I love observational, self-derprecating humor which I get the sense is Schumer's stick.

 

And yes, the cackle is amazing.

Edited July 17, 2015 by RyneOh1040

[Heat Vision]

Hope Ant-man does well. I can see it getting close to Thor 2 numbers.