Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle | December 22 2017 | Special showings for Amazon Prime members on December 8

[EmpireCity]

20 minutes ago, fmpro said:

So Disney wants 65% of DOM gross for the whole run? Or only OW?

I'm not sure at what the final percentage that Disney will land on, but it will be north of 60% for sure and I would guess hits 65% or close to it. 

 

Grosses don't usually scale anymore like they used to.  There is no more 90% first week, 80% second week, 60% third week, 40% fourth week.  It is a steady percentage all the way through until it hits second run way down the road and then theaters can rebook it at a lower rate.  

[Barnack]

25 minutes ago, fmpro said:

So Disney wants 65% of DOM gross for the whole run? Or only OW?

Reported is complete run (liked said just above scaling is pretty much of the past):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

 

https://celluloidjunkie.com/2017/11/04/disney-can-demand-65-box-office-star-wars-last-jedi/

At least that’s true for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” according to reporting in the Wall Street Journal which claimed Disney was demanding movie theatres in North America pay 65% of the films box office for every week it plays. Oh… and the movie needs to play for at least four weeks in each cinema’s largest auditorium, otherwise the studio is charging a 5% penalty, bringing their total cut to 70%.

 

Apparently Awaken was 64% so on that aspect not really different it is the others conditions in term in minimum week on the best screens that are more new/extreme.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Barnack

[fmpro]

48 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not sure at what the final percentage that Disney will land on, but it will be north of 60% for sure and I would guess hits 65% or close to it. 

 

Grosses don't usually scale anymore like they used to.  There is no more 90% first week, 80% second week, 60% third week, 40% fourth week.  It is a steady percentage all the way through until it hits second run way down the road and then theaters can rebook it at a lower rate.  

 

46 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Reported is complete run (liked said just above scaling is pretty much of the past):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

 

https://celluloidjunkie.com/2017/11/04/disney-can-demand-65-box-office-star-wars-last-jedi/

At least that’s true for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” according to reporting in the Wall Street Journal which claimed Disney was demanding movie theatres in North America pay 65% of the films box office for every week it plays. Oh… and the movie needs to play for at least four weeks in each cinema’s largest auditorium, otherwise the studio is charging a 5% penalty, bringing their total cut to 70%.

 

Apparently Awaken was 64% so on that aspect not really different it is the others conditions in term in minimum week on the best screens that are more new/extreme.

 

Thanks. Very interesting.

Do you guys know what kind of deals other big movies made? JL and MCU movies ect?

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I posted it a while ago in this thread, but the last time the release calendar set up this way was 12 years ago and Night at the Museum made $250m

 

This has a shot to get there.  It will be very crowded, but theaters will go with this over Ferdinand once it releases.  Theater owners already know that Downsizing is mediocre and Father Figures is complete garbage.  Pitch Perfect 3 is set up for a very hard fall (they should have moved this) and nobody knows what to make of The Greatest Showman yet.  

 

Don't be surprised if this breaks out.  

So there's no hope All the Money in the World is making its Christmas release despite Ridley Scott's insistence?  Knew it.

 

I think they placed Pitch Perfect 3 at Christmas because they knew it was headed for a big fall from the second one and they wanted to cushion the drop (I see it landing in the $110-115M range as The Hangover 3), especially when so many sequels (comedy or otherwise) have been tanking recently.

[YM!]

6 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I posted it a while ago in this thread, but the last time the release calendar set up this way was 12 years ago and Night at the Museum made $250m

 

This has a shot to get there.  It will be very crowded, but theaters will go with this over Ferdinand once it releases.  Theater owners already know that Downsizing is mediocre and Father Figures is complete garbage.  Pitch Perfect 3 is set up for a very hard fall (they should have moved this) and nobody knows what to make of The Greatest Showman yet.  

 

Don't be surprised if this breaks out.  

I agree. When I saw the trailer with most movies this fall, this one almost always got the best reaction. Even at Thor against the Jedi and Panther trailers.

[Boxofficerules]

I didn’t think the first trailer was any good but the second trailer was a lot better!

[Rumpot]

5 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I'm not sure at what the final percentage that Disney will land on, but it will be north of 60% for sure and I would guess hits 65% or close to it. 

 

Grosses don't usually scale anymore like they used to.  There is no more 90% first week, 80% second week, 60% third week, 40% fourth week.  It is a steady percentage all the way through until it hits second run way down the road and then theaters can rebook it at a lower rate.  

So surprise hits really benefit exhibitors the most then?  Though I imagine there are tiers based on what the movie grosses?

[ShouldIBeHere]

One of the movies  I just wonder who ever cared enough to look at the first one more than once, let alone think about a new one.

[EmpireCity]

40 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

So surprise hits really benefit exhibitors the most then?  Though I imagine there are tiers based on what the movie grosses?

 

The surprise hits depend on the studio.  If it comes from a smaller studio that is getting 45% or 40% of the box office is much better than a surprise hit from Fox who is still getting 58%

 

No tiers.  

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

So there's no hope All the Money in the World is making its Christmas release despite Ridley Scott's insistence?  Knew it.

 

I think they placed Pitch Perfect 3 at Christmas because they knew it was headed for a big fall from the second one and they wanted to cushion the drop (I see it landing in the $110-115M range as The Hangover 3), especially when so many sequels (comedy or otherwise) have been tanking recently.

 

I was going more with wide releases, but they need to get a trailer out and start advertising as they are less than a month out.  

 

Still think they should move it as that time period is going to be too crowded. 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I was going more with wide releases, but they need to get a trailer out and start advertising as they are less than a month out.  

 

Still think they should move it as that time period is going to be too crowded. 

Yeah, theaters are starting to lock in what they're going to be showing over the holidays, not just wide releases but also expanding awards players (Darkest Hour is supposed to be going "wide" then while The Shape of Water will probably be getting a sizeable expansion at the same time too). There's no chance it opens on that date in its current state unless something gets The Interviewed.

Edited November 28, 2017 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

7 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Downsizing and Father Figures are dead in the water.  If theaters had a choice, then Father Figures would get around 200 screens.  Pitch Perfect 3 is in for a big drop unless reviews are good.  I would say it makes around $100m if they are lucky.  

 

The Greatest Showman is the wild card to me.  

How hard do you think WB will push theaters to have Father Figures? It would be hilarious if it got 3k theaters and didn't even make 30M  

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

How hard do you think WB will push theaters to have Father Figures? It would be hilarious if it got 3k theaters and didn't even make 30M  

It'll probably get the same amount of theaters the flop Point Break remake they put out two years ago did (2,910).

[Rumpot]

55 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

The surprise hits depend on the studio.  If it comes from a smaller studio that is getting 45% or 40% of the box office is much better than a surprise hit from Fox who is still getting 58%

 

No tiers.  

Thanks! Very helpful...the intricacies of all this are fascinating

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It'll probably get the same amount of theaters the flop Point Break remake they put out two years ago did (2,910).

With All the Money in the World clearly not making the date, this is what I think TCs will be over Christmas:

 

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 4,000

Greatest Showman: 3,700

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,400

Father Figures: 2,600

Coco: 2,300

Downsizing: 2,200

Wonder: 2,000

Disaster Artist: 1,800

Three Billboards: 1,800

Lady Bird: 1,200

Darkest Hour: 1,000

Justice League: 800

Shape of Water: 600

Edited November 28, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[FantasticBeasts]

I feel this will under perform.

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, fmpro said:

 

 

Thanks. Very interesting.

Do you guys know what kind of deals other big movies made? JL and MCU movies ect?

From the leaked Sony accounting biggest retention rate I remember Sony trying to get was 58%, often not getting it after 2012, getting 53-55% even for their biggest title, Potter according to the leaked WB distribution deal was getting around 56% (but a high 45 to 47% intl if a remember correctly).

 

I can look back in my post, I had James Bond deal by market vs the average annual slate to show a bit the difference between tentpole title and average title.

 

Specialy release like Sony Classic is much lower (can go as low as 35-37%) 

[filmlover]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

With All the Money in the World clearly not making the date, this is what I think TCs will be over Christmas:

 

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 4,000

Greatest Showman: 3,700

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,400

Father Figures: 2,600

Coco: 2,300

Downsizing: 2,200

Wonder: 2,000

Disaster Artist: 1,800

Three Billboards: 1,800

Lady Bird: 1,200

Darkest Hour: 1,000

Justice League: 800

Shape of Water: 600

Yeah, some of these holdover theater estimates are way too high. Christmas weekend last year had 12 movies in 600 or more theaters, while the year before had 13.

[babz06]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

With All the Money in the World clearly not making the date, this is what I think TCs will be over Christmas:

 

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 4,000

Greatest Showman: 3,700

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,400

Father Figures: 2,600

Coco: 2,300

Downsizing: 2,200

Wonder: 2,000

Disaster Artist: 1,800

Three Billboards: 1,800

Lady Bird: 1,200

Darkest Hour: 1,000

Justice League: 800

Shape of Water: 600

I don’t think Lady Bird or Three Billboards will have that many theaters, probably closer to 500-600. They’ll do a wider reexpansion in January after Oscar nominations.

-Shape of Water should have 1000+ 

-Justice League will probably still have Over 1000.

- possibly The Star, Murder on the Orient Express or Daddy’s Home can keep 1000 theaters as well

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

With All the Money in the World clearly not making the date, this is what I think TCs will be over Christmas:

 

Star Wars: 4,200+

Jumanji: 4,000

Greatest Showman: 3,700

Pitch Perfect: 3,500

Ferdinand: 3,400

Father Figures: 2,600

Coco: 2,300

Downsizing: 2,200

Wonder: 2,000

Disaster Artist: 1,800

Three Billboards: 1,800

Lady Bird: 1,200

Darkest Hour: 1,000

Justice League: 800

Shape of Water: 600

 

I wouldn't say it isn't making the date yet.  They put out the update poster last week.  I imagine they are trying to get a trailer by the end of this week or next week at worst.