Tuesday #s: MI5 4.5 F4 2.9 Minions 1.8 Gift 1.75 Ant-Man 1.55 (Shaun 1)

[druv10]

I am not sure about $300m OS, I think it's way too early to predict that.

As far as I know China hasn't even an official release date yet, there are good and bad release dates especially in China and the government there likes IMHO to give not so good ones, if the same studio already had earned 'some' money there in the same year... Counts for Inside Out too.

The rumored release date that seems to circle would mean it gets a lot of competition.

It's going to need 40-50M from China which is definitely doable.

[The Dark Alfred]

AM is doing average numbers both domestic and OS, not bad, but definitely not good either. On par.

[baumer]

I think Ant Man is doing exactly what they expected it to do.

[lilmac]

AM is doing average numbers both domestic and OS, not bad, but definitely not good either. On par.

 

For a movie about an ant....man. I'd say it's doing pretty well.    GOTG was an exception to the weird-but-wonderful rule boxoffice-wise. 

[terrestrial]

AM is doing average numbers both domestic and OS, not bad, but definitely not good either. On par.

It does seemingly ~ 15% better than the pro's said it will do, that makes it 'good' for my POV. Not extreme... very very good, but - simply - good.

 

Strange, I've not seen one post from you about it, that did not sound like it's 'not good', no matter how good a single days performance was.

But a lot of high praising for another movie with - till now - nearly the same performance-to-day-in-release.

I think MI5 will do at least this week a bit better from now on, as - in relation to it's time in release - it has less direct competition IMHO

Take a look at that:

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Ant-Man/Mission-Impossible-Rogue-Nation

and  that

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2015-07-28&track=antman.htm

Compare it to gophers early estimates.... and yesterday's MI5 performance of $3,315,825 = 11th day in Ant-Man was 'better', 12 day in MI5 looks like to end better.....

 

How MI5s 'next week' (meant: starting with the OWs numbers for the upcoming movies) will look like... first let's see how the new releases will really get preceived by which sort (age, gender,...) of the audience....

 

Double standards?

 

Btw, MI5s budget is seemingly $20m higher, has a few more well known names involved... or how IM4 looks like to be still a better success than IM5 will probably reach (ignoring the fact of that one haven gotten a x-mas release date and also OS details and...) people who seek for something like that could get the idea or find reasons to tweak.... to imply MI5's run is 'disappointing' too = IMHO not correct neither, only to remind you about: there are many ways to look at and interprete datas.

Especially the x-Mas detail... is here IMHO rather simply to see

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Ant-Man/Mission-Impossible-Rogue-Nation/Mission-Impossible-IV/Captain-America

 

Think about that:

Marvel (not Disney) budget descisions seem a bit depending on expectations too, only 2 movies got a budget of 'only' under $150m, CA 1 (2011 $140m) and Ant-Man = $130m. Iron Man 2 (doing with a ww $623.9m less than Thor 2 did!) + IM 3 e.g. each got a budget of $200m...

Do you really believe they expected it to be a 'big-hitter' as in exploding?

 

Be also aware about OS numbers follow other rules for part 2 or part 3... of a movie series of the same name than in NA

= no matter how high Ant-Man might end ww, it should end a lot deeper than IM5 should theoretically end.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Ant-Man is probably the most impressively unimpressive run this summer.

[scabab]

Yesterday and today are the final showings for DBZ. Interested to see its totals.

It's got Wednesday too at 357 theatres.

[grim22]

Ant-Man is probably the most impressively unimpressive run this summer.

 

It (and Minions to some extent) is literally the only movie this summer doing expected numbers. Minions has a much larger number so it looks more impressive comparatively. Every other movie this summer has done way better than expected (JW, IO, PP2, MMFR etc.), or way worse than expected (AOU, Pixels, Tomorrowland, F4 etc.). 

[CJohn]

It (and Minions to some extent) is literally the only movie this summer doing expected numbers. Minions has a much larger number so it looks more impressive comparatively. Every other movie this summer has done way better than expected (JW, IO, PP2, MMFR etc.), or way worse than expected (AOU, Pixels, Tomorrowland, F4 etc.). 

I would say Terminator also did what I expected, but it seems overall most were thinking over 100M. 

Edited August 12, 2015 by CJohn

[grim22]

I would say Terminator also did what I expected, but it seems overall most were thinking over 100M. 

 

I put this together yesterday based on the BSG predictions. With 50 players, you would think we would be more accurate

 

 

I went through the BSG averages to see what we collectively predicted for movies and whether they exceeded, hit or fell below predictions this summer

 

Movie Name,  High predict, Low predict, Average, Actual

Avengers 2:       760M,         474M,          570M,      458M

PP2:                  185M,          81M,           135M,       185M

MMFR:              183M,          88M,           135M,       153M

Tomorrowland:  253M,         85M,           160M,        92M

San Andreas:    164M,          87M,           125M,       153M

Spy,                   180M,          73M,          150M,       109M

Jurassic World:  394M,        190M,          270M,       645M

Inside Out:         340M,        206M,         275M,        340M

Ted 2:               250M,       107M,          180M,         80M

MMXXL:           140M,      80M               120M,         65M

Genisys:           180M,        90M,             140M,        88M

Minions:            365M,       215M,           300M,         ~330M

Ant-Man:           300M,      138M,            170M,        ~165M

Pixels:               215M,      115M,            160M,        60M

Rogue Nation:   278M,     110M,            200M,         175-180M

Fantastic Four:  205M,      106M,          140M,          50-60M

 

The only movie which the entire forum predicted with less than a 5% divergence from the final gross based on the average prediction would be Ant-Man. We seem to have gone high on most movies, maybe it was the after effect of a great Winter and Spring box office. Jurassic World was missed by everyone by a large margin.

 

[Gopher]

Ant-Man is probably the most impressively unimpressive run this summer.

 

Pretty much the only film where the opening and legs were more or less exactly what we thought they'd be. IO had expected legs but opened way higher, Minions opened where we expected but legs were worse, Mike opened way lower than we expected but had much better legs, Pitch opened higher but legs were worse, etc etc. 

[TalismanRing]

For a movie about an ant....man. I'd say it's doing pretty well.    GOTG was an exception to the weird-but-wonderful rule boxoffice-wise. 

 

GOTG's budget was also 50% higher.   They expected it to be bigger.

 

Some perspective. WW, Ant-man will finish higher than every X-men movie except DOFP and $80m+ more than Batman Begins (with a smaller budget).

Edited August 12, 2015 by TalismanRing

[CJohn]

I put this together yesterday based on the BSG predictions. With 50 players, you would think we would be more accurate

 

Lmao 140M average for T5. 

[scabab]

The average for Jurassic World was only $270 million?

[baumer]

The average for Jurassic World was only $270 million?

 

No one thought it was going to do anything close to what it did.  

[Hatebox]

Ant-Man's done ok. At the rate Marvel churn out movies, the fact that a sequel for it isn't a given makes it hard for me to think it's done anything above that. But it's had a nice little run nonetheless.

[Bishop54]

The average for Jurassic World was only $270 million?

It slightly over performed. 

[Captain Craig]

Ant-Man's done ok. At the rate Marvel churn out movies, the fact that a sequel for it isn't a given makes it hard for me to think it's done anything above that. But it's had a nice little run nonetheless.

Marvel already had their Phase 3 slate set, until the Spider-man opportunity appeared. Then, viola....room was made.

Feige has said as much about Ant-Man, that they wouldn't rule out an Ant-Man sequel in Phase 3. Indicating shuffling could be done.

I'm not sure at what point we should allow or dismiss an A-M film in Phase 3, or anticipate for Phase 4(if at all). 

It's numbers are as good as other Phase 1 films that got sequels AND with a lower budget. I don't think we know the answer to what an appropriate timetable should be. The safe guess is to assume that IF one happens in Phase 3 it would be '18 or '19. Surely before IWpt.2

[TalismanRing]

Ant-Man's done ok. At the rate Marvel churn out movies, the fact that a sequel for it isn't a given makes it hard for me to think it's done anything above that. But it's had a nice little run nonetheless.

 

That's more a matter of Marvel having limited slots and a lot of competition with a fairly set plan for the next 3-4 years.  Any other studio would jump on a sequel.

[Heat Vision]

Ant-man doesn't need a sequel. He's better as a supporting character like Falcon. Dr. Strange will be the same.