FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

If $718m overseas is disappointing, I think you have way too high expectations.

 

I don't think anything over $650-750M OS is disappointing for any movie. Besides, Hobbit 1 came out the same year as Ice Age 4, which made nearly $716M OS.

[peludo]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

If $718m overseas is disappointing, I think you have way too high expectations.

Hobbit was probably the most boring billionaire run to follow. I remember well those days here. 718m OS were seen as an acceptable result, but nothing special. If Hobbit had been as good as LOTR, we could have talked about, maybe, 850-900 or even 1 billion OS. Hobbit dropped about a 40% in attendance relative to LOTR everywhere. Maybe, we can see it now as a good result, but in that moment it was seen as a disappointment (both quality and box office). And you can understand it since quality dropped a lot relative to LOTR. But Hobbit dropped both in US and OS markets. It was a normal drop.

 

In this case, Dory is maybe not as good as Nemo, but it has been very well received (94% in RT is huge). The best proof is that US has not dropped in attendance but in OS markets it has had a huge drop. That is not very usual (I do not remember a so clear case). If Dory had done, let's say, 350m DOM, I would see the result as something normal. But with these results, I see Dory as a disappointment OS.

Edited September 15, 2016 by peludo

[John Marston]

5 hours ago, peludo said:

Hobbit was probably the most boring billionaire run to follow. I remember well those days here. 718m OS were seen as an acceptable result, but nothing special. If Hobbit had been as good as LOTR, we could have talked about, maybe, 850-900 or even 1 billion OS. Hobbit dropped about a 40% in attendance relative to LOTR everywhere. Maybe, we can see it now as a good result, but in that moment it was seen as a disappointment (both quality and box office). And you can understand it since quality dropped a lot relative to LOTR. But Hobbit dropped both in US and OS markets. It was a normal drop.

 

In this case, Dory is maybe not as good as Nemo, but it has been very well received (94% in RT is huge). The best proof is that US has not dropped in attendance but in OS markets it has had a huge drop. That is not very usual (I do not remember a so clear case). If Dory had done, let's say, 350m DOM, I would see the result as something normal. But with these results, I see Dory as a disappointment OS.

 

 

Agree. Though Hobbit is more understandable due to its far less epic storyline. Finding Dory I find more disappointing actually. I was expecting it to do way better and to explode in places like Japan and Latin America where instead of only just did well

[cannastop]

48 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Agree. Though Hobbit is more understandable due to its far less epic storyline. Finding Dory I find more disappointing actually. I was expecting it to do way better and to explode in places like Japan and Latin America where instead of only just did well

Considering the stagnation in the Japanese box office, it did pretty fine. It didn't beat Monsters University in Japan, but maybe that movie was an anomaly.

Edited September 15, 2016 by cannastop

[Jason]

Here's a regional breakdown (plus China and Japan) for Dory compared to Nemo, Frozen, Inside Out, and Zootopia. ER-adjusted totals are also shown for Nemo, Frozen, and Inside Out.

Quote

Region	Dory	Nemo	N-Adj	Frozen	F-Adj	IO	IO-Adj	Zootopia
All OS Territories	$467.5	$559.5	$513	$875.7	$752	$501.1	$470	$682.2
Asia	$147.9	$110.3	$117	$388.8	$377	$108.7	$114	$366.6
Europe	$140.2	$284.6	$254	$318.4	$247	$239.6	$227	$218.3
Latin America	$94.4	$24.3	$14	$90.4	$61	$112.0	$88	$56.1
Oceania	$41.2	$30.5	$32	$31.1	$26	$26.7	$27	$24.0
Middle East	$5.3	$1.8	$0.8	$11.5	$10	$9.1	$9	$5.4
Africa	$3.0	$3.3	$1.4	$2.8	$2	$3.6	$4	$1.5
China	$38.052	n/a	n/a	$48.240	$43.7	$15.314	$14.2	$235.591
Japan	$65.015	$102.441	$109.1	$249.037	$247.3	$32.500	$38.9	$70.127

 

Finding Dory has done well in Latin America, especially taking into account the very substantial weakening of most Latin American currencies over the past couple years. However, even if Dory gets another $70M in Europe (which I think is reasonable although not conservative), that will put Dory at a total comparable to Zootopia and Inside Out but well short of even ER-adjusted totals of Frozen and Nemo.

 

Part of the reason why we expected such high totals for Dory was because of how huge Nemo was, followed by 13 years of market growth due to inflation, 3D etc. I've finally managed to get good figures for the total box office for Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) going as far back to 2005 (from various MPAA Theatrical Market Statistics reports). Europe appears to be about 95% of that market. Using that data and the EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates, I estimate a 2003 European box office total of $6.6B. (I used a general trendline for the period from 2003-2008 to estimate the box office in local currency, then converted to USD.)

 

EMEA box office totals shown below, with average exchange rates for that year. (Eurozone is about 70% of the market, GBP another ~20%). Italicized are my 2003, 2004, and 2016 estimates. Figures are in US$ billions.

Spoiler

Year USD EUR/USD GBP/USD 2003 $6.6 1.134134 1.635499 2004 $7.5 1.244143 1.832895 2005 $7.6 1.246376 1.820271 2006 $8.6 1.256316 1.842866 2007 $8.7 1.370412 2.00156 2008 $9.7 1.471366 1.855443 2009 $9.9 1.39448 1.565394 2010 $10.4 1.327386 1.545893 2011 $10.8 1.392705 1.604123 2012 $10.7 1.285697 1.584877 2013 $10.9 1.328464 1.564768 2014 $10.6 1.329165 1.647701 2015 $9.7 1.109729 1.528504 2016 $10.0 1.115639 1.399226

 

Data for the Japanese box office is here. Unfortunately they don't have year-to-date totals, but the year-to-year totals are pretty stable in Japan, so for now I'm going to estimate ¥220B total and ¥100B for imported films.

 

Using the aforementioned estimates of total box office in EMEA and Japan for this year, as well as estimates for Dory's final European total, we can compare Nemo and Dory in terms of box office market share. US$ totals are in millions, ¥ totals are in billions. Estimates are italicized.

Quote

	Finding	Nemo		Finding	Dory
Territory	gross	market	%share	gross2	market3	%share4
US + Canada	$339.7	$9,240	3.7%	$485	$11,400	4.3%
EMEA	$289.7	$6,600	4.4%	$220	$10,000	2.2%
Japan	¥11.00	¥203.26	5.4%	¥6.9	¥220	3.1%
Japan (foreign only)	¥11.00	¥136.13	8.1%	¥6.9	¥100	6.9%

 

From this we can see that Dory will have actually have a slightly higher share of the North American box office in 2016 than did Nemo in 2003. However, Dory will have a much lower share of the total box office in Europe and Japan (~50% and ~40%, respectively). In the case of Japan, a possible explanation is that the imported share of the total box office has generally been falling, which could be generally limiting the ceiling for imported films compared to the past (obviously Frozen would be an exception). No such data is available for Europe.

 

For Dory to have a similar share of the market as did Nemo, the European total would have to be around $400M and the Japanese total around $100M. I don't know if anyone specifically predicted a European total that high, but $100M in Japan is in line with the predictions that were being made.

 

Anyway, long story short, it's reasonable to have expected a lot more from Dory in Europe and a good bit more in Japan. Obviously Dory's North American performance has been great, as well as Australia/New Zealand. I think Dory's performance in Latin America has been pretty decent, although I haven't looked at the market statistics in detail.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Jason

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

Here's a regional breakdown (plus China and Japan) for Dory compared to Nemo, Frozen, Inside Out, and Zootopia. ER-adjusted totals are also shown for Nemo, Frozen, and Inside Out.

 

Finding Dory has done well in Latin America, especially taking into account the very substantial weakening of most Latin American currencies over the past couple years. However, even if Dory gets another $70M in Europe (which I think is reasonable although not conservative), that will put Dory at a total comparable to Zootopia and Inside Out but well short of even ER-adjusted totals of Frozen and Nemo.

 

Part of the reason why we expected such high totals for Dory was because of how huge Nemo was, followed by 13 years of market growth due to inflation, 3D etc. I've finally managed to get good figures for the total box office for Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA) going as far back to 2005 (from various MPAA Theatrical Market Statistics reports). Europe appears to be about 95% of that market. Using that data and the EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates, I estimate a 2003 European box office total of $6.6B. (I used a general trendline for the period from 2003-2008 to estimate the box office in local currency, then converted to USD.)

 

EMEA box office totals shown below, with average exchange rates for that year. (Eurozone is about 70% of the market, GBP another ~20%). Italicized are my 2003, 2004, and 2016 estimates. Figures are in US$ billions.

  Hide contents

Year USD EUR/USD GBP/USD 2003 $6.6 1.134134 1.635499 2004 $7.5 1.244143 1.832895 2005 $7.6 1.246376 1.820271 2006 $8.6 1.256316 1.842866 2007 $8.7 1.370412 2.00156 2008 $9.7 1.471366 1.855443 2009 $9.9 1.39448 1.565394 2010 $10.4 1.327386 1.545893 2011 $10.8 1.392705 1.604123 2012 $10.7 1.285697 1.584877 2013 $10.9 1.328464 1.564768 2014 $10.6 1.329165 1.647701 2015 $9.7 1.109729 1.528504 2016 $10.0 1.115639 1.399226

 

Data for the Japanese box office is here. Unfortunately they don't have year-to-date totals, but the year-to-year totals are pretty stable in Japan, so for now I'm going to estimate 220B total and 100B for imported films.

 

Using the aforementioned estimates of total box office in EMEA and Japan for this year, as well as estimates for Dory's final European total, we can compare Nemo and Dory in terms of box office market share. US$ totals are in millions, ¥ totals are in billions. Estimates are italicized.

 

From this we can see that Dory will have actually have a slightly higher share of the North American box office in 2016 than did Nemo in 2003. However, Dory will have a much lower share of the total box office in Europe and Japan (~50% and ~40%, respectively). In the case of Japan, a possible explanation is that the imported share of the total box office has generally been falling, which could be generally limiting the ceiling for imported films compared to the past (obviously Frozen would be an exception). No such data is available for Europe.

 

For Dory to have a similar share of the market as did Nemo, the European total would have to be around $400M and the Japanese total around $100M. I don't know if anyone specifically predicted a European total that high, but $100M in Japan is in line with the predictions that were being made.

 

Anyway, long story short, it's reasonable to have expected a lot more from Dory in Europe and a good bit more in Japan. Obviously Dory's North American performance has been great, as well as Australia/New Zealand. I think Dory's performance in Latin America has been pretty decent, although I haven't looked at the market statistics in detail.

[zackzack]

On 12 September 2016 at 7:21 AM, YourMother said:

$50M more till Dory swims across the big $1B.

 

Doesn't look like it's happening.....

[YM!]

5 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

Doesn't look like it's happening.....

Just wait for Germany, Austria and Italy.

Edited September 16, 2016 by YourMother

[CoolK]

Opened yesterday 15-sep in Italy with 506k euro... Pretty decent 

 

http://www.cinetel.it/i-nostri-servizi/report-pubblici/box-office-di-ieri.html

[Mojoguy]

Why is this taking so long to open in Germany, Austria and Italy? Ugh.

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Why is this taking so long to open in Germany, Austria and Italy? Ugh.

 

Because Disney loves to see us suffering here, of course

[cannastop]

19 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Why is this taking so long to open in Germany, Austria and Italy? Ugh.

So that it can take advantage of school vacations in Germany that happen in early October.

[Mojoguy]

I've never liked dragged out release dates.

[Quigley]

The Italian OD indicates possibility of a break-out success (20M€+)

[CoolK]

Italy - Friday - 761.3k€(+52%) 

[YM!]

34 minutes ago, CoolK said:

Italy - Friday - 761.3k€(+52%) 

Is that good?

[Quigley]

9 hours ago, YourMother said:

Is that good?

 It's less than IO's 1st Friday (840K€), but the weekend will be more critical

[CoolK]

Italy - Saturday - 1.690.821€(+120%)

Edited September 18, 2016 by CoolK

[Omni]

It's actually +120%

[zackzack]

Inside Out did $6M+ opening weekend in Italy