FIRST MAN | 10.12.18 | Universal | Damien Chazelle | Ryan Gosling | Neil Armstrong biopic

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

After being so close yet so far from a Best Picture Oscar just two years ago, can one blame him?

Eh, he won the director, that's more personal. Also, there are so many directors who never won either and even more those who never got nominated but should have been. Nolan surely waited for his nom for too long and he isn't thirsty. 

[antovolk]

Chazelle was developing First Man right after Whiplash broke out and actually approached Ryan about being in this film before he asked him to do La La Land...

Edited August 17, 2018 by antovolk

[The Futurist]

The Spike Lee KKK movie will win best picture or at least best director.

[Barnack]

47 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

The Spike Lee KKK movie will win best picture or at least best director.

I am not sure why you make such claim with such level of confidence.

 

82 on MC is limit nowaday, outside some technical tour de force a la Revenant/Life of Pi.

 

BD

Shape of water: 87

la la land: 93

Revenant: 76

Birdman: 88

Gravity: 96

Life of pi: 79

Artist: 89

King Speech: 88

Hurt locker: 94

 

 

A best picture below 85 on metacritic, that didn't happen in a very long time, since the infamous Crash win.

 

BP:

Shape of water: 87

Moonlight: 99

Spotlight: 93

Birdman: 88

12 year's: 96

Argo: 86

Artist: 89

King Speech: 88

Hurt locker: 94

Slumdog: 86

No country: 91

Departed: 85

Crash: 69

 

It does not have the critical acclaim going for it, and the group of voters is more and more international with the big influx of the last year's, the theme could not have much resonance with them and some of the powerful moment a bit lost.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

 

It does not have the critical acclaim going for it, and the group of voters is more and more international with the big influx of the last year's, the theme could not have much resonance with them and some of the powerful moment a bit lost.

 

it did pretty well at Cannes w/ an international jury. 

[Napoleon]

Why do people care if this wins Best Picture or not, I mean, Spotlight and Moonlight were pretty awful and won. I wanna know if it's good and I'll enjoy it.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

it did pretty well at Cannes w/ an international jury. 

True still didn't win too, and a lot of the jury lived in the US/Canada if not born there, more than 10% of the voting group was Ava DuVernay after all.

 

It did got beat by a movie with a 93 Metascore and beat a movie with a 71.

 

It has a good chance, maybe even higher than 20% to win, but I do not think it is some unbeatable movie easy to declare winner even before the awards season started.

 

Put it that way, if tomorrow the book maker open the bet in your country, even with a giant 5:1 line I do not think Futurist would bet a big amount of money on it, he is purely trolling.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

I mean, Spotlight and Moonlight were pretty awful

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Why do people care if this wins Best Picture or not, I mean, Spotlight and Moonlight were pretty awful and won. I wanna know if it's good and I'll enjoy it.

1) lot of people thought those movie were great, Spotlight was one of the time I had the most fun in a movie theater. Closest it got to The Wire in recent time in a movie for me.

 

2) People will see it before having any clue if it win Best Picture or not, it has nothing to do about enjoying it or not, depending of what you mean by I wanna know if it good or not and I'll enjoy it.

 

3) You are on a box office message board, so I think it is correct that from time to time you do care about how much a movie make at the box office, right ? Why ? It can help to put you in the shoes of someone that would care if a movie win BP or not, to transfer pretty much the same reason's you care about a movie box office success to a movie award success. Would it be rational, like thinking about the kind of incentive it create has a result, the budget/freedom it can give to the people involved future projects, etc... or completely irrational like when you care about who/which team/country win some sport competition.

Edited August 17, 2018 by Barnack

[The Futurist]

My Oscar is better than yours.

[CoolioD1]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

True still didn't win too, and a lot of the jury lived in the US/Canada if not born there, more than 10% of the voting group was Ava DuVernay after all.

 

keep in mind i think a lot of cannes juries deliberately avoid giving the top prize to top american auteurs to highlight international films. when stephen frears was the head of the jury he literally said his jury didn't give No Country For Old Men a prize because it was bound to be a popular movie later on regardless. i think that kind of thinking comes in to play at cannes for sure.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

keep in mind i think a lot of cannes juries deliberately avoid giving the top prize to top american auteurs to highlight international films. when stephen frears was the head of the jury he literally said his jury didn't give No Country For Old Men a prize because it was bound to be a popular movie later on regardless. i think that kind of thinking comes in to play at cannes for sure.

That is possible, but Lee and that subject matter is not particularly popular in markets that care about Cannes (unlike the Coens), without Denzel I am not sure he ever reached 12m Intl, the movie could still have used the boost.

 

It is hard to make generality at cannes too, considering it is always different people deciding but Malick, Micheal Moore, Gus Van Sant won in recent year's.

 

Palme d'Or Winners:

United States	18
Italy	12
France	10
United Kingdom	10
Japan	5

[CoolioD1]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That is possible, but Lee and that subject matter is not particularly popular in markets that care about Cannes (unlike the Coens), without Denzel I am not sure he ever reached 12m Intl, the movie could still have used the boost.

 

It is hard to make generality at cannes too, considering it is always different people deciding but Malick, Micheal Moore, Gus Van Sant won in recent year's.

 

Palme d'Or Winners:

United States	18
Italy	12
France	10
United Kingdom	10
Japan	5

i don't think they were making box office predictions, but blackkklansman is a movie that was inevitably gonna get a lot of press whether it won or lost. the malick and van sant movies were a lot more esoteric as well not a big crowdpleaser that general audiences can dig like bkkk. F9/11 i suppose is probably the palme d'or winner closest to it i guess that jury was more comfortable making a politic statement with their choice.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i don't think they were making box office predictions,

I was not talking about prediction, more the feeling despite is certain popularity in the US (were Cannes I imagine is nearly 100% irrelevant) it could still have been seen has a movie that could have used the Cannes platform for marketing in the movie were Canne matter. But it is true that it does not even need Intl at all anyway. 

[dudalb]

41 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

keep in mind i think a lot of cannes juries deliberately avoid giving the top prize to top american auteurs to highlight international films. when stephen frears was the head of the jury he literally said his jury didn't give No Country For Old Men a prize because it was bound to be a popular movie later on regardless. i think that kind of thinking comes in to play at cannes for sure.

Cannes is just as fucked up as the Oscars, only in a different way.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, dudalb said:

Cannes is just as fucked up as the Oscars, only in a different way.

cool.

[dudalb]

I am a sucker for moves about the Exploration of Space that are halfway realistic, So I will be there for this one.

[Jake Gittes]

I do think it makes it pretty pointless to even be in competition in the first place if the jury decides to leave you without awards based on principle rather than quality. So I'm not a fan of Frears doing that. The Coens themselves pulled this on a lower level when they presided, giving best actress to Rooney Mara but not Blanchett because the latter has won enough awards already (yet as great as Mara is, those two performances absolutely couldn't have existed without each other). It's like, the work is the work. If it merits an award it should get it, regardless if the person is too famous or whatever. 

[Joel M]

This is more awards friendly than Gravity and Martian because it's "historic" but essentially is a mainstream play like those movies were. It opens wide in October and probably has a budget somewhere between 50 and 100M. October-December oscar buzz is a very tiny online bubble, before the golden globes GA has no clue what movie is in contention for the oscars and First Man would have made 95% of its gross by then whatever that is. It will have to float on its own with or without BP conteder status.

[filmlover]