Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I'm aware of these factors, yes. Still, R1 made (almost exactly) $4m in SK over the weekend, so from weekend-to-weekend in the same markets it's $47.1m last weekend compared to $41.8m this weekend, which is an 11% drop.

That's not great. Remember that last weekend included Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, which arguably would have had more of an effect on the previous weekend than New Year's Eve/Day had on this weekend. If you look back, many people were expecting an increase or for it to at least stay flat this weekend.

I'm going to go and have a look at individual country data, but it seems at initial glance as though R1 may even have a job passing $500m overseas at this point.

I don't have to remember... I live in one of the most 'strong' Catholic areas within Bavaria....

I looked into the time of days when the cinemas in my region started screening again and with how many screens = there was no difference to christmas, but Sunday last weekend was in more regions a bit higher than for the circumstances were to expect, as I thonk, in more regions into SW Monday and partly Tuesday were off too.

If a Monday is a public holiday more people go at the evening into a cinema than when at Monday is a workday...

 

 

Btw, SW 7 fell 27.something% from the Christmas weekend to the New Year weekend, SW R1 just under 3%. Yes, there is SK, but even excluding that, not such a bad drop.

 

In my POV it is not even about passing the $500m OS mark, it already reached OS more than I thought as the lower limit after all the negative buzz see re-shoots and it being IMHO not a family film, and also def. not a Christmas film... before it even opened in China.

I think OS looks good for $450m (not meant as max. possible) = that's ~ 40% of SW 7 OS

= what I had hoped for months back as a possibility considering e.g. the exchange rate drops in especially higher results typical markets..., if a lot goes right, but not all (see e.g. local competition).

Even a bit under that I see as good enough. I am very wary about China's ~ release lists, including the ~ week after SW R1 (and their customs during their holidays around that date)

I really do not know why people seem to be disappointed with a result ending probably near $1b, it seems to me like spin-of 'thumb-of-rules' and other got completely forgotten by a few here.

I mean a spin-of film (or any other) reaching $800m ww in under 3 weeks, still running and people being disappointed?

[John Marston]

18 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Given $60m in China, Rogue One will need similar post-holiday legs to TFA to reach $500m overseas total. TFA had made around 76% of its total gross at this point in its run, at the end of the third weekend (i.e. it made around 32% more of what it had already made after the third weekend).

 

If that figure is 80% for Rogue One - if it only makes 25% more on top of what it's already made - then it won't pass $500m with a $60m China gross.

 

 

Only 60m in China? Doubt it 

[John Marston]

18 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Given $60m in China, Rogue One will need similar post-holiday legs to TFA to reach $500m overseas total. TFA had made around 76% of its total gross at this point in its run, at the end of the third weekend (i.e. it made around 32% more of what it had already made after the third weekend).

 

If that figure is 80% for Rogue One - if it only makes 25% more on top of what it's already made - then it won't pass $500m with a $60m China gross.

 

 

Only 60m in China? Doubt it 

[hw64]

Just now, John Marston said:

Only 60m in China? Doubt it 

 

And what do you expect it to make in China?

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

 

And what do you expect it to make in China?

 

 

Surely it shluld make about 100m

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Surely it shluld make about 100m

The current estimate from some guys on Chinese threads are at 60m though..

[hw64]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Surely it shluld make about 100m

 

It doesn't seem that way from presales, social media buzz, etc.

[John Marston]

27 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The current estimate from some guys on Chinese threads are at 60m though..

 

 

wow that sucks

[terrestrial]

Quote

The updated weekend box office figures are in, and Walt Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has now earned $801.9 million worldwide after just under three weeks of global theatrical play. The film made $16 million on Monday, a drop of just 4% from Sunday and a drop of 50% from its previous Monday. ...

Its 18-day domestic total is $440.9 million

..... but relative comparisons argue around $6.5-$8m for today (dom) which will bring it just under $450m domestic, a milestone it will cross tomorrow on its 20th day of release. 

.... still looking at an over/under $550m domestic total. Rogue One also earned $11 million overseas for a $361m overseas cume. T.... the United Kingdom ($66.7m), Germany ($35m), France ($30m) Australia ($28m) and Japan ($26m). Everything else is below $13m ....

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/01/03/rogue-one-box-office-star-wars-zooms-past-800-million-worldwide/#17e7e42f15fd

 

The Numbers ‏@MovieNumbers7 minutes ago

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office …... Rogue One estimates are $16m dom and $11m int'l for Monday, Jan 2nd, for an est'd total of $801.9m since release

Edited January 3, 2017 by terrestrial

[fabiopazzo2]

Is sure reach 1 billion? 

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Is sure reach 1 billion? 

Yes. It still has China. But I don't think it will go far beyong that. Sth like 1.05b

[MattW]

For TFA the OS numbers after new years (less China for the weekend):

 

14.5m - Mon 4th

13.0m - Tue 5th

13.1m - Wed 6th

9.1m - Thu 7th

47.6m - FSS 8-10th

 

So with Rogue One doing $11.0m on Monday the 2nd as Forbes says and if it follows the same pattern I would guess it will be

11.0 - Mon

9.8 - Tue

9.9 - Wed

6.9 - Thu

34 - FSS

 

Total through thus sunday could be over 420m, though I'm guessing it'll actually be closer to 410 plus whatever China brings in over the weekend.

[terrestrial]

44 minutes ago, MattW said:

For TFA the OS numbers after new years (less China for the weekend):

 

14.5m - Mon 4th

13.0m - Tue 5th

13.1m - Wed 6th

9.1m - Thu 7th

47.6m - FSS 8-10th

 

So with Rogue One doing $11.0m on Monday the 2nd as Forbes says and if it follows the same pattern I would guess it will be

11.0 - Mon

9.8 - Tue

9.9 - Wed

6.9 - Thu

34 - FSS

Total through thus sunday could be over 420m, though I'm guessing it'll actually be closer to 410 plus whatever China brings in over the weekend.

 

I am not sure, but the 2 January might have been in more regions a holiday than last year (Monday), some people told they get an additional day, if a public holiday (maybe only for X-Mas and NY counting?) falls on a Sunday

[Quigley]

$1B is guaranteed. Disney scored the biggest OS yearly gross ever for a single studio ($4.604B) and it will also become the first studio with 4 billion-dollar films in a single year.

[PPZVGOS]

I hate to beat about the bush, the reality is that Rogue One, and Star Wars in general, is a relative disappointment at the OS box-office. Some of the reasons in my view:

 

1) Rogue One being a film completely reliant on Star Wars mythological context cannot transfer or connect as well with more shallow (or less nerdy) international audiences. Moreover, the fact the it is closely linked with a film from 1977 and not last year's blockbuster seems to have complicated things even further. General international audiences are quite limited in their movie knowledge. 

 

2) The eternal linguistic barrier that Star Wars faces outside of the Anglophone world. A problem that can never hinder the FF, Minion/DM, Transformers franchises etc...

 

3) Even more so than last year, the USD peaked at exactly the wrong time for Star Wars. What's even worse, the British currency has depreciated spectacularly in the past few months or so. This is especially negative since the UK is Star Wars' biggest market outside of the US.  

[terrestrial]

7 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

I hate to beat about the bush, the reality is that Rogue One, and Star Wars in general, is a relative disappointment at the OS box-office. Some of the reasons in my view:

 

1) Rogue One being a film completely reliant on Star Wars mythological context cannot transfer or connect as well with more shallow (or less nerdy) international audiences. Moreover, the fact the it is closely linked with a film from 1977 and not last year's blockbuster seems to have complicated things even further. General international audiences are quite limited in their movie knowledge. 

 

2) The eternal linguistic barrier that Star Wars faces outside of the Anglophone world. A problem that can never hinder the FF, Minion/DM, Transformers franchises etc...

 

3) Even more so than last year, the USD peaked at exactly the wrong time for Star Wars. What's even worse, the British currency has depreciated spectacularly in the past few months or so. This is especially negative since the UK is Star Wars' biggest market outside of the US.  

 

1 - counts not for all countries, and the rest could have been formulated a lot better, in my understanding way too down-speaking.

 

2 - depends e.g. a lot on the per country translation teams. And the speakers chosen. And the directors of those translations/audio-recordings.

Disney does not pick for all of its films good ones, at least some of their international teams are far from the same standard they seem to be in dom.

Including decisions about release dates, what kind of advertisement to place where. That has nothing to do with SW, that hurts e.g. their MCU films as well.

To pick a war Sci-Fi as a pre Christmas film had IMHO also more of an impact in a few of the countries than in some others. And...

A lot plays into the financial results.

 

3. exchange rates fluctuate since always, no one earnestly following ww BO (including the distributors) will give the 'fault' for that part to one film nor a franchise.

Unusual is a bit - for the short time between SW 7 and SW R1 - in how many countries the exchange rate fell. And see UK how much. It grew in some too, but those are not big enough (the growing and / or the country) to be able to counteract the general drop.

 

Your 'summary' is in my POV wrong, see to name SW in complete?

SW 7 made alone in OS over $1b. SW R1 had as I see it also in more countries local and other countries competition, and as a spin-off has it a bit harder to compete against those, than a main story might have had (that is something that has to be looked into per country, never in general terms) = one of many, not so in the front of the competition like the main story is positioned.

The market grew worldwide as you pointed out in dom, but the competition in the countries grew too. Partly considerable, often even the reasons for a lot of cheers about finally getting their own films back too. Some of the markets grew only or mostly for the local films, getting the GA back into the cinemas.

Plus the amount of films that are based in dom... groe too (IMHO too much) they further the competition too.

Also you compare it against growing franchises, see e.g. FF, that got a special push with the last one, but the earlier ones are more recent.

To at least a part of the OS's people SW 7 and SW R1 are parts of a ~ new franchise or a new chapter of a too long ago franchise, and/or the SW franchise is not as deep rooted in the GA for a lot of reasons anyway, so to expect or compare it to results of actual active franchises part.... is in my POV not a sound argument, especially in its general way.

 

SW R1 is a war film based in a Sci-Fi franchise, not the expected / famous for the franchise space opera like the others are.

I think GotG showed too people like space operas...

And SW R1 has IMHO a far less' re-watchable' story than a lot of other films. Yes, some fans do still watch it repeatedly, but I seldom hear (beside a certain member at dom) from people who watched it more than lets say 2-5 times (always dragging people with them, re-watchers take part in the totals in a bigger part than a lot seem to acknowledge or being aware of) During SW 7's release time I read more often about people rewatching it lets say 8-10 times.

 

Christmas.... and NOT being a film I'd take an under 12y old with me and story / genre-mix wise less uplifting = less rewatch-counts. And a spin-of.

To me not a disappointment at all. I am pretty sure Disney was aware about that beforehand, see their less than stellar advertising, and dubbing,... efforts in a lot of countries. To the degree I had to tell SW fans here about it being already in the cinemas, beside them watching local TV and me not. Same in UK (where it is running great in local currency)

It will be #1 or in the top 10 of 2016 in a lot of countries, why that should be a disappointment...

 

I think only people who didn't either follow ww BO or people not having thought about the start situation of SW 7 (not even comparable to other franchises that are much more fresh in the minds of the people film-wise) and SW R1, the genre change... expected too much based on that, being joyous optimistic.

And lets not forget the social media 'hysteria' about the re-shoots, that too I had to clarify, quite some people here thought SW R1 will be the typical 'I'll want to watch that per home video later on' = in parts the real impression / 'new knowledge' still has not arrived in the minds about those - 'its a bad film bcs a re-shoot mess' being BS

 

Re-shoot example shows again: People can speak themselves into a wrong judgement too fast and too strong, that wrong judgement can spread considerable. And is still wrong or over-the-top.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by terrestrial

[Purple Minion]

Gitesh Pandya on Twitter: $15.4M global TUE for #RogueOne which will reach about $830M today. Will surge to $925M area after this wknd w/ FRI debut in China.

[terrestrial]

the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-officeRogue … One is estimated to do $6.3m dom and $9.1m int'l for 2017-01-03 for a global est. total since release of $817.4m...

to add the split for Tuesday

intl clearly over dom this time

Edited January 4, 2017 by terrestrial

[Valonqar]

So how much over 1B is Rogue One expected to make worldwide? Over/under Civil War? 

Edited January 4, 2017 by Valonqar

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So how much over 1B is Rogue One expected to make worldwide? Over/under Civil War? 

Under in my opinion.