Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[NCsoft]

really enjoyed reading that wonderful analysis @TigerPaw 

I guess we should have thought about in the fact that Donnie/Jiang Wen are in the movie would lead to a skewed pre-sale to OD ratio , they are huge stars in China, to people who would not bother with Star Wars in general.

Edited January 6, 2017 by NCsoft

[terrestrial]

 

Quote

 

The Numbers ‏@MovieNumbers  1m1 minute ago

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Rogue-One-A-Star-Wars-Story#tab=box-office … Rogue One estimates for 2017-01-05 are $3.8m dom and $5.4m int'l, for an estimated total of $838.3m, since release.

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson 2 hours ago

China #StarWars #BoxOffice: #RogueOne Snags Okay $10.3M Opening Day via Forbes by @ScottMendelson

[terrestrial]

Quote

In terms of worldwide figures, as noted it made $10.3 million in China which gave its foreign numbers a shot in the arm today. The picture earned $15.7m overseas (including the China debut) for a new $395.5m overseas cume. That means the film will cross $400m outside of North America sometime today and that it has now earned $848.6m worldwide.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/01/06/star-wars-box-office-rogue-one-ends-week-three-with-455m-nears-850m-global/#390bc2222f00

[Purple Minion]

Thread title needs update!    $900M by Sunday?

[terrestrial]

17 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Thread title needs update!    $900M by Sunday?

@CaptainJackSparrow

[Aristis]

At least $475M + $430M ($32M from China) = $910M. But that would be the worst case. Maybe more like $480M + $435M ($35M) = $915M

 

$500M OS will be passed

[TigerPaw]

Rogue One's saturday increase in China.. is Pathetic... Really Pathetic. 
Estimates are in at 82m yuan, Friday OD was 67m yuan(without midnights). That is a 22% increase only.
Compared to Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast which 50%-ish increases from their Friday(which is already larger). Both Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast had more than a 100m yuan Saturday..

R1 will be lucky to hit 60m USD or to beat Star Trek Beyond in China.

Its WOM is average to negative.. Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen made a good multipler for OD but couldn't save R1 because of that slow 1st hour.
Its maoyan score is 7.9/10 compared to Great Wall and Railroad Tigers which are above 8. And trust me when i say, Great Wall and Railroad Tigers are really 2 crap movies with 0 logic.

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Rogue One's saturday increase in China.. is Pathetic... Really Pathetic. 
Estimates are in at 82m yuan, Friday OD was 67m yuan(without midnights). That is a 22% increase only.
Compared to Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast which 50%-ish increases from their Friday(which is already larger). Both Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast had more than a 100m yuan Saturday..

R1 will be lucky to hit 60m USD or to beat Star Trek Beyond in China.

Its WOM is average to negative.. Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen made a good multipler for OD but couldn't save R1 because of that slow 1st hour.
Its maoyan score is 7.9/10 compared to Great Wall and Railroad Tigers which are above 8. And trust me when i say, Great Wall and Railroad Tigers are really 2 crap movies with 0 logic.

Do you believe that the future of the SW franchise in China is doubtful or is it just Rogue One that will do so "poorly"?

[NCsoft]

20 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Rogue One's saturday increase in China.. is Pathetic... Really Pathetic. 
Estimates are in at 82m yuan, Friday OD was 67m yuan(without midnights). That is a 22% increase only.
Compared to Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast which 50%-ish increases from their Friday(which is already larger). Both Dr. Strange and Fantastic Beast had more than a 100m yuan Saturday..

R1 will be lucky to hit 60m USD or to beat Star Trek Beyond in China.

Its WOM is average to negative.. Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen made a good multipler for OD but couldn't save R1 because of that slow 1st hour.
Its maoyan score is 7.9/10 compared to Great Wall and Railroad Tigers which are above 8. And trust me when i say, Great Wall and Railroad Tigers are really 2 crap movies with 0 logic.

 

I've read somewhere that it is possible that some people are intentionally sabotaging the MaoYan Score of Rogue one by rating it a 1, I mean, 7.9 on MY that's really reserved for the worst of the worst right? like Razzie worthy movies, nine lives has a 8.7.... I know the WOM is bad, but is it really THAT bad...

[Lordmandeep]

I said before 

 

RO is set to be a huge hit domestically for its ending as the 1977 film is an all time hit and is one of the most widely watched films ever in the domestic market. 

 

To many non SW obsessed audiences overseas the ending is "some girl dressed in white so what?"

[Apollo2xx]

2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

I've read somewhere that it is possible that some people are intentionally sabotaging the MaoYan Score of Rogue one by rating it a 1, I mean, 7.9 on MY that's really reserved for the worst of the worst right? like Razzie worthy movies, nine lives has a 8.7.... I know the WOM is bad, but is it really THAT bad...

Rogue One had two slow-paced acts. It only became interesting on that incredible third act, and since Chinese people aren't crazy about Darth Vader or 

Spoiler

Princess Leia

they didn't like the movie.

[TigerPaw]

36 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Do you believe that the future of the SW franchise in China is doubtful or is it just Rogue One that will do so "poorly"?

Truth to be told. Disney China made Rogue One Flop.
So after my long long post yesterday, I received some confidential information from sources close to the production and marketing of R1 in China. But I can't disclose any more details.

 

But here is what is happening;

Disney put in a lot of effort for TFA which performed reasonably well in China, 125m USD is actually VERY GOOD. The marketing was on point... Posters and Trailers showing at busy streets; Force Awakens - 4 chinese words on the Great Wall with 500 stormtroopers. The opening weekend of TFA was incredible, but as you know by now, WOM in China is bad and it barely double of this opening weekend.

So coming back to R1. Compared to TFA, the marketing for R1 was really disappointing. I don't know the reason behind it, but take a drive around Shanghai or Beijing, you barely see any big R1 posters around. There are some standees in cinemas, that's it. Yes, there were daily posts on Weibo by the official star wars account(which don't really have many followers), and a theme song with piano played by Donnie Yen and sang by Jam Hsiao(who is a taiwan singer, not that huge in China). And the Beijing Premiere, I heard it was a big fail. Too early, 3 weeks(Dec 21) before the opening at a location with quiet traffic, and attendance were poor, no gimmicks or local big stars invited to attend other than the casts themselves.
 

Once again, I don't know the reason. Maybe they felt 1) TFA made everyone a fan of Star Wars so they can slacken a little? Or 2) They think with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in the cast, they can save on marketing? 3) Or Rogue One is not a main episode, it is an "Experiment" so less effort? 3) 2015 - TFA was fighting with 2 Universal Films (Jurassic World & FF7) for no1 global movie, but 2016 Civil War is number 1, with huge earnings in China(Zootopia also did a more than perfect job in China).. So they already got the crown, therefore they don't really care for R1's overseas gross?

I mean I applaud Disney Headquarters in N.America which did an exceptional job for R1 there, but I can't say the same for Disney Asia. 

So going back to your question. It depends on numerous factors.

1) R1's WOM is better than TFA in China, so can it gain some fans for Ep8? 

2) How much effort/marketing budget is Disney going to put for this? Or is it giving up on China?

3) Will Carrie Fisher's death cause China movie-goers to support the movie? I mean many of them treat Paul Walker as their own after he is deceased, FF7 exploded at China's box office despite Paul Walker not being a big name there..but once he is deceased, all Chinese love him and watch the whole F&F series... Will this effect be the same for Carrie Fisher?

So.. there are too many uncertanties for me to give you a concrete answer. But R1 is becoming a big disappointment right now in China, I really can't see episode 8 doing worse. BTW, one of the earlier pages, I talked about the weak translated title for R1 in China... That probably will not happen with a main episode.

Edited January 7, 2017 by TigerPaw

[Noctis]

What's the expected total for Rogue One? No chance it catches up to Beasts, right?

[Elessar]

12 minutes ago, Noctis said:

What's the expected total for Rogue One? No chance it catches up to Beasts, right?

 

Get over Harry Potter, please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Noctis]

17 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Get over Harry Potter, please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trash.

[FantasticBeasts]

51 minutes ago, Noctis said:

What's the expected total for Rogue One? No chance it catches up to Beasts, right?

No. No chance. It will be lucky to catch 500m OS..

[RobinHood26]

Had this been the first Star Wars movie since Sith, this would have done far far more overseas probably inbetween this and TFA. Doing 475m on a spin-off a year after you're last Saga film an't too bad. 

 

I bet if Fantastic Beasts came out a year after DH part 2 its drop OS would be strikingly similar. 

 

[MrPink]

With about 55-60 million in China it looks like, 500m OS looks like a toss up, maybe about 5-10 million short or so. 

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

Had this been the first Star Wars movie since Sith, this would have done far far more overseas probably inbetween this and TFA. Doing 475m on a spin-off a year after you're last Saga film an't too bad. 

 

I bet if Fantastic Beasts came out a year after DH part 2 its drop OS would be strikingly similar. 

 

But isn't Star Wars supposed to be a far more hot brand now than Harry Potter when Fantastic Beasts came out? I just can't understand your reasoning would you mind helping me? I mean HP brand is far from very hot right now. The brand peaked during 00's and early 10's. Those who watched Fantastic Beasts were mostly loyal fans. If Fantastic Beasts was released in 2010 (because TFA is not the last SW) for example it would have still gotten the loyal fans but I believe that the there would be more GA support as the HP brand would be more relevant. Again I may be mistaken in something.