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ZOOTOPIA | 682.5 M overseas ● 1023.8 M worldwide

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12 hours ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

It's just how Japan and any other developed country works; they flow with the current of fads, an reform occurs, they stick with it for years or decades, and another fad comes along, and the cycle repeats (basic, very basic outline).  In terms of the economy, it has been "rebounding" (If you can call the yen's staggered growth a rebound) but the economic bubble that Japan built during its peak years of exponential growth only to have it burst due to carelessness has immensely degenerated the economy.  The economic golden years of the early 2010s are to be missed.  

 

well, fads come and go, isn't it like that in all countries, not just in developed countries? ;) anyways, yeah, what I was trying to say is that since the asset price bubbles burst and it went through the so called the lost twenty years people could have become more and more discouraged and exhausted and that mental effect on people is now gradually showing in the people's preference for the lighter, less complicated entertainment. But then again, that's just a theory, of course. 

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5 hours ago, Jack said:

My target is more like;

Japan: $100m (actually hope for $150m+)

UK: $80m

Not possible in UK. Exchange rate is at its lowest for years, absolute maximum I can see is $60m, which would be over £40m. More likely is $40-50m. 

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If it makes 100M in Japan which I think is very difficult, then 1b $ will happen.

Current total 390M

China will contribute another 50M

Other maekets (29.1M weekend) - 100M

UK- 50M

Jp -100M(I think it will be closer to $50M instead)

Others - 10M

700M OS with optimistic projection.

And DOM 300-320?

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Zootopia opened in four markets this weekend as it continued its stampede across the global box office with $64.8 million haul from 49 territories in its sixth frame. Australia is the top opener with $3.7 million, followed by Brazil's $2.5 million bow. China continues to lead the pack with a $173.4 million take, followed by France ($25.4M), Russia ($24.9M), Germany ($19.2M), South Korea ($18.1M), and Mexico ($15M). Zootopia has now grossed a total of $389.9 million overseas and $591.7 million globally.

 

Source: BoxOffice.com

 

195M+ holdovers and 100M from new markets (UK, Japan and HK)

 

690M OS and 310M US 

 

Right around 1B!

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The australian opening is more or less what I expected. With good WOM 20m should be achievable with the opening. The Brazil opening was quite lower than what I expected. Still, 900m WW is the lowest this may end at now even with somewhat less than expected totals in Japan and UK (around 50 and 40m respectively).

Edited by Infernus
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It's fascinating that whatever this film ends at, no non-Disney film has crossed 950m WW so far (except DM frnachise with DM2 and Minions)

And if Ice Age doesn't cross 900m, it will end up as a complete Disney domination in the 950m+ range (except Illumination's 2 films)

Fascinating to think of this. 

This also means that it will be again only Illumination in 2017 which will have a shot at breaking 950m/1B WW with no non-Disney films again in sight (with DM3).

Are there any potential non Disney films in sight that can reach that mark in the next year or 2?

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So this is at 590m WW now.

 

We have a most probable 110m more from US (this will still require pretty good legs but the legs have been very good uptil now. More than this is quite unlikely because of the effect BvS will have. BvS has, more or less, a 4 quad appeal just like this plus it will be quite big so whatever you may say, it will definitely affect this and every other film)

 

We also have 50m more from China (for a 225m most probable final total)

 

We have a most probable 45m in UK (ofcourse it can breakout and make 60m or flop and not even get to 35 but we are talking about the most probable target)

 

We have 65m more from Japan (a little less than Big Hero 6 but that had very very good WOM and exceptional multiplier so straightoff assuming a similar total might be too presumptuous. 65 is already more than most movies have made in recent years. Boy and the beast was the highest grossing japanese movie last year and overall, almost, the third highest grossing movie (behind the likes of JW and SW) and also got very very good WOM. It made 47m$)

 

We have 15m more from Australia (with good WOM)

 

We have probably 8m more from Brazil.

 

Maybe another 10m from other markets left to open

 

Then, we have 35m more probably from remaining holdovers (21.5m weekend. BvS to follow. Easter close.)

 

That leaves us with a final total of - 930m. This is the most probable final total.

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11 minutes ago, Infernus said:

So this is at 590m WW now.

 

We have a most probable 110m more from US (this will still require pretty good legs but the legs have been very good uptil now. More than this is quite unlikely because of the effect BvS will have. BvS has, more or less, a 4 quad appeal just like this plus it will be quite big so whatever you may say, it will definitely affect this and every other film)

 

We also have 50m more from China (for a 225m most probable final total)

 

We have a most probable 45m in UK (ofcourse it can breakout and make 60m or flop and not even get to 35 but we are talking about the most probable target)

 

We have 65m more from Japan (a little less than Big Hero 6 but that had very very good WOM and exceptional multiplier so straightoff assuming a similar total might be too presumptuous. 65 is already more than most movies have made in recent years. Boy and the beast was the highest grossing japanese movie last year and overall, almost, the third highest grossing movie (behind the likes of JW and SW) and also got very very good WOM. It made 47m$)

 

We have 15m more from Australia (with good WOM)

 

We have probably 8m more from Brazil.

 

Maybe another 10m from other markets left to open

 

Then, we have 35m more probably from remaining holdovers (21.5m weekend. BvS to follow. Easter close.)

 

That leaves us with a final total of - 930m. This is the most probable final total.

Similar to my estimates too. An amazing success for an original film.

If we consider FROZEN semi-orginal, then this is the highest purely original film of all time.

Part me wishes IO made more though..I think ZOO is a more important film that everyone should see especially today but IO is a deeper, better film overall.

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No non-sequel non-Disney/Pixar animated film has ever made more than 650M WW.

And this year's Trolls tells us how a non-Disney film usually tries to explode: not with the quality of the animation or of the story, but with the 'correct' character(s) that can connect with audience. When a non-Disney film is successful, a sequel to it is immediately announced - extremely revealing...
 

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24 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Similar to my estimates too. An amazing success for an original film.

If we consider FROZEN semi-orginal, then this is the highest purely original film of all time.

Part of me wishes IO made more though..I think ZOO is a more important film that everyone should see especially today but IO is a deeper, better film overall.

 

I absolutely agree. But in the end it all came down to China. This will make 210m more in China. Taking that away IO would be a massive 140m ahead of Zootopia. Ahead both domestically and OS. And while zootopia got a completely empty marketplace everywhere, except for a little KFP3 competition in its third week in some markets which mostly failed, IO came out in the middle of summer and in fact in JW's very second weekend. Plus its concept was significantly more abstract, in other words it was more artsy, which is tougher to breakout. Zootopia may have messages but they are not really too subtle, quite relatable too infact in most places, and even without them its got a simple story that can stand up on its own. I know some people may not agree to this last point but the other two still stand irrefutable. So I'd say Inside Out's performance was much more incredible, excepting China.

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Was looking through BOM and damn this basically fell down the moment KFP3 opened in a lot of markets (Italy, Mexico, Spain among others). Hopefully easter will give this film some boost back up again.

 

And I think I read there were some rallies or something at Brazil that's taking the attention away from cinemas.

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21 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Forbes: Expect a $23.6m weekend in the US for a $241m cume. It’s at $192m in China and will top $200m in said territory today.

Soon, it will become the 2nd animated movie which makes more than $200M in two different markets.

 

Frozen: DOM and Japan

Zootopia: DOM and CHina

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