Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)

[JonathanLB]

LOL there will always be haters. It's part of the fun, really. Let them suffer as SW7 destroys everything in its path.

 

It's so funny seeing that graph! Look at Titanic, it's this hilarious almost straight line, such a rare BO run, so unique, it just chugged along and unlike the ship never hit an iceberg. Now TFA looks like a freakin' NASA rocket launch. That does NOT look normal!

[Jandrew]

50 minutes ago, Fake said:

In 2009 during this week, Avatar's Friday was 30.1% higher than Monday, and SH's Friday was 33.35% higher than Monday.

 

If the Monday number holds, and if Friday can show a similar jump, then we are looking at 43-44m Friday, and 110-115M 3rd Weeknd!!

 

Yeah yall said that crap last time with a $180 mil weekend. I'm not falling for it anymore.

 

Still salty about my derby.

[terrestrial]

A general hint about those graphs: if a movie run longer than 125 days the endresult isn't on the chart to see, one of the reasons I didn't add Titanic (plus it's run hasn't a lot to do with nowadays times, see running day's time frame...)

[druv10]

19 minutes ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said:

 

It's like 1998

 

Star Wars = Mark McGwire but instead of 70 home runs he has hit about 125.

 

How can you forget his butt brother Sammy "corking bat" Sosa? His 66 fueled the steroid induced Home run race. 

[jb007]

19 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said:

30 million on Monday? Okay, is this crap ever gonna slow down. Diehard fanboys are going broke seeing this 30 times. What losers Theres only 3 movies in history thats done over 600 mil, and this undeserving tripe does it in 12 days. Star Wars fans lmao. Don't care what no one says, this movie wasn't THAT good. 

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

It's so funny seeing that graph! Look at Titanic, it's this hilarious almost straight line, such a rare BO run, so unique, it just chugged along and unlike the ship never hit an iceberg. Now TFA looks like a freakin' NASA rocket launch. That does NOT look normal!

 

Since Water Bottle named it as suchh my family also only calls it like a rocket Even my absulute not interested into BOs husband looked over my shoulder these days

[lilmac]

36 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

reposting as I need for a test / an idea the .jpg

 

Builder.

Day	Avatar	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	I am Legend
Day: 0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Day: 1	$26.752.099	$119.119.282	$34.450.834	$37.125.547	$23.006.856	$30.059.386
Day: 2	$52.281.135	$187.413.486	$51.470.821	$64.865.362	$48.332.871	$58.854.500
Day: 3	$77.025.481	$247.966.675	$73.282.370	$84.617.303	$65.556.312	$77.211.321
Day: 4	$93.411.301	$288.076.417	$100.774.423	$92.355.596	$70.159.464	$84.676.771
Day: 5	$109.497.762	$325.438.146	$124.100.534	$100.210.686	$74.186.139	$91.179.888
Day: 6	$125.943.053	$363.460.329	$137.663.742	$106.537.873	$77.693.647	$97.201.184
Day: 7	$137.094.051	$390.856.054	$150.139.984	$113.152.900	$81.331.961	$103.265.293
Day: 8	$160.189.097	$440.181.717	$157.684.384	$123.231.727	$90.342.036	$114.173.200
Day: 9	$188.463.503	$496.913.249	$171.670.604	$137.391.893	$103.345.544	$126.575.006
Day: 10	$212.711.184	$540.058.914	$190.822.800	$150.041.265	$113.169.644	$136.768.494
Day: 11	$232.129.323		$208.072.067	$156.938.532	$117.824.308	$141.169.517
Day: 12	$250.419.951		$222.268.708	$168.177.061	$122.739.357	$150.950.671
Day: 13	$268.886.074		$232.759.000	$179.565.290	$127.654.000	$159.672.020
Day: 14	$283.624.210		$241.937.000	$189.700.814	$133.442.840	$167.075.237
Day: 15	$308.898.218		$249.400.000	$200.320.148	$141.373.715	$176.360.519
Day: 16	$334.733.769		$262.230.583	$211.908.785	$146.114.483	$186.245.378
Day: 17	$352.114.898		$272.832.713	$221.626.882	$153.220.802	$194.489.704
Day: 18	$360.209.452		$283.395.934	$228.546.604	$165.135.135	$199.345.154
Day: 19	$367.536.685		$290.410.961	$238.001.325	$174.359.262	$206.129.574
Day: 20	$374.445.852		$292.793.000	$242.450.337	$183.116.192	$209.506.903
Day: 21	$380.540.297		$294.972.000	$246.289.507	$191.991.322	$212.338.204
Day: 22	$393.820.950		$296.894.000	$251.461.852	$201.694.884	$217.524.065
Day: 23	$415.090.487		$298.111.838	$259.090.870	$209.440.087	$224.370.732
Day: 24	$430.846.514		$301.700.000	$263.834.893	$217.677.877	$228.055.662
Day: 25	$435.957.707		$308.228.208	$265.146.005	$225.703.346	$229.118.908
Day: 26	$441.024.441		$312.320.936	$266.717.281	$228.281.863	$230.187.062
Day: 27	$445.768.203		$313.497.000	$267.891.777	$230.181.967	$231.170.492
Day: 28	$450.467.005		$314.716.000	$269.044.187	$232.134.689	$232.103.841
Day: 29	$460.861.269		$315.773.000	$271.393.243	$236.161.362	$234.657.832
Day: 30	$478.115.377		$316.592.632	$275.583.907	$243.291.068	$238.342.192
Day: 31	$493.252.617		$318.968.891	$278.212.618	$247.777.824	$240.283.451
Day: 32	$504.868.451		$323.583.085	$278.869.783	$248.649.542	$240.869.820
Day: 33	$509.059.398		$326.812.102	$279.689.070	$249.524.985	$241.444.213
Day: 34	$512.852.205		$329.040.393	$280.327.393	$250.357.188	$241.995.994
Day: 35	$516.797.418		$329.802.000	$280.989.741	$251.211.092	$242.577.424
Day: 36	$525.825.912		$330.401.000	$282.442.200	$253.544.785	$243.961.942
Day: 37	$542.151.962		$331.032.242	$285.262.419	$257.928.733	$246.171.454
Day: 38	$551.741.499		$332.500.000	$287.166.682	$261.270.848	$247.468.797
Day: 39	$554.981.691		$335.700.055	$288.613.051	$264.020.859	$248.482.867
Day: 40	$558.179.737		$337.817.998	$289.121.058	$264.587.877	$248.815.030
Day: 41	$561.317.325		$338.354.000	$289.530.240	$265.086.453	$249.122.328
Day: 42	$564.472.387		$338.910.000	$289.938.470	$265.615.568	$249.455.640
Day: 43	$571.911.813		$339.500.000	$290.655.265	$267.056.212	$250.049.656
Day: 44	$585.695.694		$340.021.012	$292.303.032	$270.103.044	$251.113.537
Day: 45	$595.752.416		$341.400.000	$293.323.831	$271.852.138	$251.666.936
Day: 46	$598.453.037		$344.131.995	$293.562.965	$272.212.000	$251.820.178
Day: 47	$601.141.551		$345.331.815	$293.831.138	$272.570.244	$251.962.543
Day: 48	$603.789.348		$345.735.000	$294.051.480	$272.925.394	$252.106.654
Day: 49	$606.493.323		$346.151.000	$294.292.520	$273.362.318	$252.247.711
Day: 50	$612.653.642		$346.532.000	$294.791.435	$274.394.934	$252.545.958
Day: 51	$624.193.440		$346.839.672	$295.799.649	$276.429.161	$253.105.383
Day: 52	$629.344.204		$347.700.000	$296.193.684	$277.867.308	$253.263.158
Day: 53	$631.595.771		$349.762.348	$296.348.737	$278.133.732	$253.347.464
Day: 54	$633.621.035		$351.133.343	$296.541.937	$278.379.730	$253.420.893
Day: 55	$635.470.349		$351.441.343	$296.696.970	$278.613.817	$253.493.274
Day: 56	$637.605.653		$351.727.000	$296.865.052	$278.862.289	$253.571.734
Day: 57	$642.146.324		$351.994.000	$297.174.579	$279.582.921	$253.726.349
Day: 58	$651.346.762		$352.277.575	$297.877.452	$281.305.928	$254.011.393
Day: 59	$661.217.278		$353.100.000	$298.333.426	$281.934.379	$254.161.107
Day: 60	$666.388.502		$355.035.095	$298.481.792		$254.205.399
Day: 61	$668.224.829		$356.464.575	$298.609.930		$254.244.650
Day: 62	$669.935.879		$357.367.856	$298.722.132		$254.280.993
Day: 63	$671.721.154		$357.702.000	$298.884.345	$282.669.443	$254.324.468
Day: 64	$675.615.172		$358.001.000	$299.101.408		$254.391.955
Day: 65	$683.071.751		$358.268.479	$299.527.804		$254.507.764
Day: 66	$687.962.011		$358.900.000	$299.874.706	$284.742.799	$254.592.462
Day: 67	$689.237.048		$360.222.047	$300.161.285		$254.643.034
Day: 68	$690.499.726		$361.118.934	$300.249.423		$254.660.926
Day: 69	$691.701.910		$361.326.000	$300.322.891		$254.677.693
Day: 70	$692.904.794		$361.541.000	$300.401.896	$285.418.612	$254.695.259
Day: 71	$695.981.544		$361.742.000	$300.532.101		$254.735.176
Day: 72	$702.621.374		$361.940.947	$300.797.269		$254.805.378
Day: 73	$706.560.068		$362.400.000	$300.952.379	$286.745.514	$254.846.426
Day: 74	$707.818.745		$363.400.000	$300.997.848	$287.153.504	$254.856.495
Day: 75	$709.304.322		$364.115.612	$301.044.732		$254.867.239
Day: 76	$710.842.764		$364.392.000	$301.085.807		$254.876.501
Day: 77	$712.489.342		$364.670.000	$301.134.992	$287.482.269	$254.887.764
Day: 78	$714.463.378		$364.913.000	$301.198.249		$254.988.274
Day: 79	$718.126.396		$365.172.348	$301.324.866		$255.165.109
Day: 80	$720.607.444		$366.000.000	$301.402.746	$288.193.914	$255.268.029
Day: 81	$721.425.412		$367.326.659	$301.424.668		$255.299.643
Day: 82	$722.207.106		$368.210.170	$301.451.679		$255.331.126
Day: 83	$722.954.237		$368.432.000	$301.473.018		$255.360.875
Day: 84	$723.744.022		$368.661.000	$301.495.997	$288.405.047	$255.392.764
Day: 85	$725.429.879		$368.873.000	$301.592.562		$255.476.605
Day: 86	$728.329.714		$369.126.293	$301.765.469		$255.610.983
Day: 87	$730.270.443		$369.600.000	$301.874.933	$288.795.853	$255.687.117
Day: 88	$730.942.185		$370.521.028	$301.921.098		$255.711.141
Day: 89	$731.621.183		$371.147.794	$301.976.034		$255.735.812
Day: 90	$732.229.805		$371.359.000	$302.023.697		$255.759.710
Day: 91	$732.880.952		$371.590.000	$302.075.203	$288.937.326	$255.786.554
Day: 92	$733.938.158		$371.790.000	$302.162.441
Day: 93	$735.684.163		$372.008.809	$302.304.675
Day: 94	$736.907.957		$372.400.000	$302.393.021	$289.178.946	$256.015.411
Day: 95	$737.266.471		$372.968.676	$302.421.626
Day: 96	$737.627.370		$373.359.557	$302.454.449
Day: 97	$737.976.702		$373.481.000	$302.485.958
Day: 98	$738.393.054		$373.603.000	$302.517.733	$289.304.031	$256.112.613
Day: 99	$738.919.556		$373.721.000	$302.567.059
Day: 100	$739.798.846		$373.850.755	$302.648.445
Day: 101	$740.440.529			$302.695.938	$289.847.008	$256.227.323
Day: 102	$740.684.275			$302.715.735
Day: 103	$740.916.066		$374.556.572	$302.738.507
Day: 104	$741.140.003			$302.757.024
Day: 105	$741.352.439			$302.779.925	$290.110.235	$256.279.068
Day: 106	$741.699.502			$302.805.622
Day: 107	$742.076.465		$374.830.647	$302.833.169
Day: 108	$742.332.678			$302.849.493	$290.611.900	$256.339.571
Day: 109	$742.497.942			$302.860.946
Day: 110	$742.605.267		$375.204.550	$302.871.198
Day: 111	$742.721.098			$302.880.835
Day: 112	$742.844.322			$302.893.299	$290.821.636	$256.356.018
Day: 113	$743.083.175			$302.905.358
Day: 114	$743.448.904		$375.378.000	$302.922.520
Day: 115	$743.688.973			$302.932.624	$291.171.963	$256.386.216
Day: 116	$743.767.458			$302.935.557
Day: 117	$743.853.911		$375.667.233	$302.938.604
Day: 118	$743.935.257			$302.941.346
Day: 119	$744.020.453			$302.944.389	$291.294.207	$256.393.010
Day: 120	$744.275.947			$302.953.301
Day: 121	$744.750.989		$375.831.230	$302.966.623
Day: 122	$745.023.267			$302.975.075	$291.478.741
Day: 123	$745.115.019			$302.976.741
Day: 124	$745.219.191		$376.058.551	$302.978.573
Day: 125	$745.330.634			$302.980.257

 

 

You'll have to soon increase your Y axis.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, lilmac said:

 

You'll have to soon increase your Y axis.

The graph is by www.The-Numbers.com

 

Yep, I am waiting for that

[POTUS 2020]

37 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

I know the comps are other December openers, but at this point it makes more sense just to do the top domestic grossers: Avatar, Titanic, Jurassic World, and Avengers.

Nah. Should do titanic adjusted. All else is a waste of 1s n 0s

[grim22]

Finally catching up on all the box office results over the past 2 weeks and looks like the holdovers just collapsed and died. MJ2 which was looking like an O/U 300M finish is now looking at O/U 280M. Spectre will barely hit 200M and TGD has completely failed to show any good holds, it will end up being a major misfire for Pixar at the box office.

[druv10]

As for Avatar+32%, gap has risen to 266.6M. It's going to seriously have to collapse after the NY holidays to miss 1B domestic. My final range 1.05-1.1B domestic. 

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, druv10 Maul said:

As for Avatar+32%, gap has risen to 266.6M. It's going to seriously have to collapse after the NY holidays to miss 1B domestic. My final range 1.05-1.1B domestic. 

 

What's this gap about? Sorry I must have missed something here.

[Clef Ment]

28 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said:

30 million on Monday? Okay, is this crap ever gonna slow down. Diehard fanboys are going broke seeing this 30 times. What losers Theres only 3 movies in history thats done over 600 mil, and this undeserving tripe does it in 12 days. Star Wars fans lmao. Don't care what no one says, this movie wasn't THAT good. 

 

[JonathanLB]

I'm really, really glad this forum exists. Because while I can't get enough of the box office of this film and tracking a once-in-twenty-years type of BO run is incredibly fun for me, nobody I know cares much at all. My friend Sean just called me out over text today, "You really are focused on the box office lately huh?" LOL jeez. I don't even talk to him much. My girlfriend rolls her eyes and is like, "That's nice hun." Depending on her mood, she'll humor me, if it's especially big, like when I told her it's on course to pass Avatar pretty easily. That makes her excited because she knows how big that is and she loved the movie. She also knows it's something I talked about earlier this year, "Who knows, maybe Star Wars takes back #1. Probably not, but you never know." Then as the pre-sales came in, I said I thought it was 50-50.

 

The biggest thing for me in all of this is to remember the human element and common sense. For people to say Jurassic World made a lot of money and was such an impressive box office performance (which it was!!), therefore Star Wars can't equal that, I was conflicted. I thought, well, JW was huge at the box office. Maybe they're right. But my gut kept saying, ok, what world do I live in where Jurassic Park is more popular as a franchise than STAR WARS? I just can't see that being the case. I was absolutely right, JW was a predictor for Star Wars. Once JW hit $650M, my first reaction was, "Ok if that movie can hit within $100M of Avatar, Star Wars has a shot." That was the correct instinct and absolutely JW's performance did mean Avatar's record was at serious jeopardy, pending a well received, strong SW film. 

[filmlover]

The Hateful Eight is now opening wide on Wednesday (first it was January 8, then January 1, then December 31, now December 30, all within a span of like two weeks). This release plan has been such a mess haha.

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

What's this gap about? Sorry I must have missed something here.

 

Avatar + 32% = 1 billion domestic.  If it keeps gaining enough on that number 1 billion domestic will happen for TFA

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Finally catching up on all the box office results over the past 2 weeks and looks like the holdovers just collapsed and died. MJ2 which was looking like an O/U 300M finish is now looking at O/U 280M. Spectre will barely hit 200M and TGD has completely failed to show any good holds, it will end up being a major misfire for Pixar at the box office.

TGD is a disaster. It may only have a 3x multi from its OW, and it opened on a Wednesday in November!  I can't believe not even a slight increase this weekend after that freefall drop last weekend. Man was I wrong on that movie. 

[The Panda]

Tuesday could honestly be even bigger because weather will have died down by then...

[lilmac]

59 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

35

33.5

24 

45 

47

32.5

 

$791 million DOM by Jan 3... puts it in on pace for $950 million+ DOM

 

$930m, at least, if you follow ROTK's multiplier. 

[#ED]

It's supposed to have a good hold OS this week. Usually this week is better than last week.