2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18
2. Finding Dory - July 7

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16
6. Finding Dory - June 28
7. The Secret Life of Pets - August 2
8. Suicide Squad - September 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10
6. Finding Dory - June 23
7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 17
8. Suicide Squad - August 13
9. Doctor Strange - November 26
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - December 14

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Finding Dory - June 18
10. Central Intelligence - July 7
11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
12. The Conjuring 2 - July 13
13. The Legend of Tarzan - July 17
14. Independence Day: Resurgence - July 20
15. Ghostbusters - July 30
16. Star Trek Beyond - July 31
17. Suicide Squad - August 6
18. Jason Bourne - August 7
19. Bad Moms - September 3
20. Sully - October 1
21. Doctor Strange - November 9
22. Trolls - November 18
23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 23
24. Moana - December 3

 

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18
2. Finding Dory - July 7

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16
6. Finding Dory - June 28
7. The Secret Life of Pets - August 2
8. Suicide Squad - September 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10
6. Finding Dory - June 23
7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 17
8. Suicide Squad - August 13
9. Doctor Strange - November 26
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - December 14

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Finding Dory - June 18
10. Central Intelligence - July 7
11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
12. The Conjuring 2 - July 13
13. The Legend of Tarzan - July 17
14. Independence Day: Resurgence - July 20
15. Ghostbusters - July 30
16. Star Trek Beyond - July 31
17. Suicide Squad - August 6
18. Jason Bourne - August 7
19. Bad Moms - September 3
20. Sully - October 1
21. Doctor Strange - November 9
22. Trolls - November 18
23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 23
24. Moana - December 3
25. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 17

[cannastop]

So this was an enormous failure, and there will probably be fewer $100m grossers than in 2015. No more midrange hits.

 

How many $100m movies are left? Sing's the only 100% for sure one.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

So this was an enormous failure, and there will probably be fewer $100m grossers than in 2015. No more midrange hits.

 

How many $100m movies are left? Sing's the only 100% for sure one.

 

Only other potential ones are Passengers, Fences, Hidden Figures, and Patriots Day.  Nothing else seems like it'd cross the barrier.  So the high end is 30 for this year.

[wildphantom]

I'm expecting La La Land to break out too. Think it could do really well through January. 

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

I'm expecting La La Land to break out too. Think it could do really well through January. 

 

Oh, forgot that.  So 31 is the high end.  Actually, Arrival might cross it with Oscars, and maybe if Manchester holds phenomenally through Oscar season (unlikely, but can't rule it out yet).  Then I guess 33 is the high end?

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18
2. Finding Dory - July 7

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16
6. Finding Dory - June 28
7. The Secret Life of Pets - August 2
8. Suicide Squad - September 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10
6. Finding Dory - June 23
7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 17
8. Suicide Squad - August 13
9. Doctor Strange - November 26
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - December 14
11. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 21

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Finding Dory - June 18
10. Central Intelligence - July 7
11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
12. The Conjuring 2 - July 13
13. The Legend of Tarzan - July 17
14. Independence Day: Resurgence - July 20
15. Ghostbusters - July 30
16. Star Trek Beyond - July 31
17. Suicide Squad - August 6
18. Jason Bourne - August 7
19. Bad Moms - September 3
20. Sully - October 1
21. Doctor Strange - November 9
22. Trolls - November 18
23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 23
24. Moana - December 3
25. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 17

 

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18
2. Finding Dory - July 7

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16
6. Finding Dory - June 28
7. The Secret Life of Pets - August 2
8. Suicide Squad - September 5
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 26

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10
6. Finding Dory - June 23
7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 17
8. Suicide Squad - August 13
9. Doctor Strange - November 26
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - December 14
11. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 21

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Finding Dory - June 18
10. Central Intelligence - July 7
11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
12. The Conjuring 2 - July 13
13. The Legend of Tarzan - July 17
14. Independence Day: Resurgence - July 20
15. Ghostbusters - July 30
16. Star Trek Beyond - July 31
17. Suicide Squad - August 6
18. Jason Bourne - August 7
19. Bad Moms - September 3
20. Sully - October 1
21. Doctor Strange - November 9
22. Trolls - November 18
23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 23
24. Moana - December 3
25. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 17

 

 

[The Panda]

My guess for 2017

 

800m+

1.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

400m

1.Beauty and the Beast

2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

3.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

300m

1.Beauty and the Beast

2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

3.Wonder Woman

4.Despicable Me 3

5.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

200m

1.The LEGO Batman Movie

2.Beauty and the Beast

3.The Fate of the Furious

4.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

5.Pirates of the Caribbean 5

6.Wonder Woman

7.Despicable Me 3

8.Spider-Man: Homecoming

9.War of the Planet of the Apes

10.Dunkirk

11.Justice League

12.Coco

13.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

100m

1.A Dog's Purpose

2.The LEGO Batman Movie

3.Logan

4.Kong: Skull Island

5.Beauty and the Beast

6.The Fate of the Furious

7.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

8.Alien: Covenant

9.Baywatch

10.Pirates of the Caribbean 5

11.Wonder Woman

12.Cars 3

13.Transformers: The Last Knight

14.Despicable Me 3

15.Snatched

16.The House

17.Spider-Man: Homecoming

18.War of the Planet of the Apes

19.Dunkirk

20.The Dark Tower

21.Ninjago

22.Blade Runner 2049

23.Kingsman The Golden Circle

24.My Little Pony

25.Friday the 13th

26.Thor Ragnarok

27.The Star

28.Justice League

29.Coco

30.Let it Snow

31.Star Wars: Episode 8

32.Jumanji

33.Pitch Perfect 3

34.A Bad Mom's Christmas

35.Downsizing

[elcaballero]

3 minutes ago, La La Panda said:

My guess for 2017

 

800m+

1.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

400m

1.Beauty and the Beast

2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

3.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

300m

1.Beauty and the Beast

2.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

3.Wonder Woman

4.Despicable Me 3

5.Star Wars: Episode 8

 

200m

1.The LEGO Batman Movie

2.Beauty and the Beast

3.The Fate of the Furious

4.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

5.Pirates of the Caribbean 5

6.Wonder Woman

7.Despicable Me 3

8.Spider-Man: Homecoming

9.War of the Planet of the Apes

10.Dunkirk

11.Justice League

12.Coco

13.Star Wars: Episode 8

You have Wonder Woman making it to $300m, but not Justice League? I would have to imagine Wonder Woman doing that well would be a good omen for the DCEU as a whole. 

[BadAtGender]

So, Sing will cross the $100m mark, probably on Wednesday.

 

And then, everything else will probably need some favorable awards runs.

 

Arrival could, but the narrative may need to shift back to it again. (If Adams had a "she's due" thing going, a la Dicaprio, then, sure, it'd make it, but right now i'm thinking it may end up a heavily nominated but perhaps only some technical wins.)

 

La La Land stands a nice shot, though it depends on how well it crosses over into wide release. It's still playing somewhat limited.

 

Fences stands a slim chance. It might need both big acting wins to do it, though.

 

Hidden Figures isn't something to count out, IMO. It's playing very well in limited, and it's got a considerably better run advertising campaign than Selma did, which managed to get to $50m.

 

Silence and Patriots Day could also do it. I'd say the latter has a slightly better shot, if it's filling in that "serious dramatic war/action film" slot in January.

 

Manchester feels like it's already done its big push. It's over a thousand theaters already and isn't even at $20m, so it would need some massive awards support to get there.

 

The problem is that several of these films are probably needing the same wins in order to cross the mark, so there isn't a best case scenario where all of them do it. If LLL cleans up the Oscars, the rest all probably fall short (except possibly Arrival, since it's fairly close already.) And if things get spread around, maybe none of them do it.

[babz06]

20 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

So, Sing will cross the $100m mark, probably on Wednesday.

 

And then, everything else will probably need some favorable awards runs.

 

Arrival could, but the narrative may need to shift back to it again. (If Adams had a "she's due" thing going, a la Dicaprio, then, sure, it'd make it, but right now i'm thinking it may end up a heavily nominated but perhaps only some technical wins.)

 

La La Land stands a nice shot, though it depends on how well it crosses over into wide release. It's still playing somewhat limited.

 

Fences stands a slim chance. It might need both big acting wins to do it, though.

 

Hidden Figures isn't something to count out, IMO. It's playing very well in limited, and it's got a considerably better run advertising campaign than Selma did, which managed to get to $50m.

 

Silence and Patriots Day could also do it. I'd say the latter has a slightly better shot, if it's filling in that "serious dramatic war/action film" slot in January.

 

Manchester feels like it's already done its big push. It's over a thousand theaters already and isn't even at $20m, so it would need some massive awards support to get there.

 

The problem is that several of these films are probably needing the same wins in order to cross the mark, so there isn't a best case scenario where all of them do it. If LLL cleans up the Oscars, the rest all probably fall short (except possibly Arrival, since it's fairly close already.) And if things get spread around, maybe none of them do it.

I think Arrival will eventually cross 100m, even if it barely does it. 

Everything else we'll have to wait for wide expansion. 

It's going to be touch and go for Passengers, but if it has atleast a 3.3x multiple, 100m will be in sight. Sing will obviously do it, and Assassin's Creed/Why Him have no chance.

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by babz06

[stripe]

I would add Sing, La La Land, Arrival, Passengers and Hidden Figures.

30 movies grossing 100M

[Blankments]

400M

1. Captain America: Civil War - June 18
2. Finding Dory - July 7
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 31

300M

1. Deadpool - March 5
2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - April 13
3. Zootopia - April 15
4. The Jungle Book - May 14
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 16
6. Finding Dory - June 28
7. The Secret Life of Pets - August 2
8. Suicide Squad - September 5
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 26

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30
4. The Jungle Book - April 26
5. Captain America: Civil War - May 10
6. Finding Dory - June 23
7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 17
8. Suicide Squad - August 13
9. Doctor Strange - November 26
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - December 14
11. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 21

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26
5. The Jungle Book - April 17
6. Captain America: Civil War - May 7
7. X-Men: Apocalypse - June 3
8. The Angry Birds Movie - June 15
9. Finding Dory - June 18
10. Central Intelligence - July 7
11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
12. The Conjuring 2 - July 13
13. The Legend of Tarzan - July 17
14. Independence Day: Resurgence - July 20
15. Ghostbusters - July 30
16. Star Trek Beyond - July 31
17. Suicide Squad - August 6
18. Jason Bourne - August 7
19. Bad Moms - September 3
20. Sully - October 1
21. Doctor Strange - November 9
22. Trolls - November 18
23. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - November 23
24. Moana - December 3
25. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - December 17
26. Sing - December 28

[Kalo]

On 12/28/2016 at 4:06 AM, stripe said:

I would add Sing, La La Land, Arrival, Passengers and Hidden Figures.

30 movies grossing 100M

 

Not sure about Hidden figures until it goes wide, but I think Arrival and Passengers will inch past it, La La land should pass it as well, Sing has obviously already crossed that mark. 

Edited January 5, 2017 by Kalo

[Captain Craig]

On 12/28/2016 at 3:06 AM, stripe said:

I would add Sing, La La Land, Arrival, Passengers and Hidden Figures.

30 movies grossing 100M

Arrival is stalling out. It's theater count is at 545 and sits at $93m. A $7m discount theater run seems highly unlikely given it'll lose more theaters in the coming weeks. Should end at $95/96m

Passengers is 75/25 at this point depending on how it fares the rest of the month. Lack of solid competition should keep it's theater count high. Seems most likely.

Hidden Figures I want to see some wide release numbers.

LaLa Land, we shall see, needs an awards push and marketing to really get it there. Just WOM isn't going to do it.

Sing, about to be a $200m so moot. 

[forg]

Arrival need a re-release to make it, which may happen if it gets major oscar nods

 

 

[lilmac]

12 films above $200m in 2016. Wowza!

[forg]

After that long stretch of no movies grossing in the 200M range, we're going to have 4 of it in the end

[zackzack]

A record for $300M grossers: 9.

10 if Sing has super-long staying power.