Weekend Actuals (Page 93): TFA 42.35M | The Revenant 39.83M | Daddy's Home 15.02M | The Forest 12.74M | Sisters 7.19M

[setna]

10 hours ago, tokila said:

TFA is not behaving like any movie ever. People keep trying to find examples of other movies to compare it to. Each time it has failed. One week it looked like Avatar on weekdays, causing everyone to way over predict the weekend. Then people tried ROTK it worked for one week then failed. Now people are looking at the above 50% drop weekend 4 and are using Hobbit 3. Even though nothing it has done so far is anything like what the Hobbit  3 did.

 

Applying specific examples to TFA will only lead to failure. After last week's monday number I stated it was aiming for a 41-43 mil weekend. Several people basically said I was an idiot and did not even know what BOM was (implying that looking there would show me how other movies had performed).

 

Some people just want to make sense of TFA and feel like they have some idea where its heading so they use historical trendlines. (which work with many other movies)

 

Good luck finding a movie that pulled a 40m+ weekend while number 1 all time. We are in uncharted territory.

Could it continue dropping hard because he already burnt through 812 million of demand? Very possible

Could it find a sweet spot where it see lower week over week drops ones it gets down to a level where it can sustain that? Also very possible

 

 

I´m agree totally, when you enter in a not-walked territory, everything is a mistery.

I´m thinking about 920-930, can be less, can be more...

[RogueLeader]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

Saw TFA at the Chinese today. What an amazing experience!! I've never seen a movie look that good. Anyone who can watch movies like that regularly is so spoiled lol. The laser IMAX 3D is ridiculously good but so was the sound and the massive screen. All for $1.75 more than I pay for my LieMax screen. Painful lol

 

Laser IMAX?

 

The hell is that?

 

I've never even heard of it. Sounds awesome.

Edited January 12, 2016 by RogueLeader

[stripe]

10 minutes ago, setna said:

 

I´m agree totally, when you enter in a not-walked territory, everything is a mistery.

I´m thinking about 920-930, can be less, can be more...

 

Fake underlined TFA is closely mirroring TTT run, but only x3 bigger. And as the time passes, numbers are proving he was right.

 

TFA 42M for the 4th weekend is really close to three times TTT 14.7M 4th weekend gross. Yes, TTT dropped less, but that was only because TFA had an inflated Friday on its third weekend while TTT did not.

 

If this trend continues, TFA should gross x3 TTT at MLK (12.5M 4day gross). So, 37.5M is my prediction.

 

Domestically, TFA would do 165M more if it grosses three times what TTT grossed after its 4th weekend.

 

812M + 165M = 977M DOM

 

950M mark seems like a good bet for me

 

[terrestrial]

43 minutes ago, stripe said:

How many f-ck yeah! will say JJ Abrams while he is reading the noms?

Does he do that? I just realised, I think I never watched an interview with him (I did see some behind-the-scene material on discs and that convention clip where they showed the alien lifeform with lots of ~ chicken/birds as part of the SW 7 promotion)

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, stripe said:

Fake underlined TFA is closely mirroring TTT run, but only x3 bigger. And as the time passes, numbers are proving he was right.

TFA 42M for the 4th weekend is really close to three times TTT 14.7M 4th weekend gross. Yes, TTT dropped less, but that was only because TFA had an inflated Friday on its third weekend while TTT did not.

If this trend continues, TFA should gross x3 TTT at MLK (12.5M 4day gross). So, 37.5M is my prediction.

Domestically, TFA would do 165M more if it grosses three times what TTT grossed after its 4th weekend.

812M + 165M = 977M DOM

950M mark seems like a good bet for me

Agree, his TTT finding really impressed me (I stopped with RotK then), results ~, rather good

 

Beside that: to imagine, 3 times TTT.

And TTT wasn't a small movie on it's own, hence the reason I name SW 7 (and Avatar) the insane runs, as to call them merely blockbusters seems... somehow wrong

[eddyxx]

7 hours ago, RogueLeader said:

 

Jesus! Who was that knocking into DiCaprio?

 

That looked like a major offense!

 

Edit: Ahhhh OK its Lady Gaga! Jesus! She looks old as hell!

 

Woman looks like 50+. Can't believe how terrible her appearance is.

Please don't disrespect the queen like this.

[RogueLeader]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

Fake underlined TFA is closely mirroring TTT run, but only x3 bigger. And as the time passes, numbers are proving he was right.

 

TFA 42M for the 4th weekend is really close to three times TTT 14.7M 4th weekend gross. Yes, TTT dropped less, but that was only because TFA had an inflated Friday on its third weekend while TTT did not.

 

If this trend continues, TFA should gross x3 TTT at MLK (12.5M 4day gross). So, 37.5M is my prediction.

 

Domestically, TFA would do 165M more if it grosses three times what TTT grossed after its 4th weekend.

 

812M + 165M = 977M DOM

 

950M mark seems like a good bet for me

 

 

Its going to be a real shame if TFA gets that close to 1 billion and misses the mark. Disney HAS to do a Special Edition version to get it over the hump if that is the case.

[RogueLeader]

Oh yeah, I'm still wondering about this: Is there ANY chance for TFA getting serious Oscar nominations? Like Best Picture? I think it is fairly deserving of that honor. Last year was not a great year for movies and TFA is a LOT more deserving than other films likely to get a nod like Joy, Hateful Eight, or Spotlight!

[misafeco]

16 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:

Oh yeah, I'm still wondering about this: Is there ANY chance for TFA getting serious Oscar nominations? Like Best Picture? I think it is fairly deserving of that honor. Last year was not a great year for movies and TFA is a LOT more deserving than other films likely to get a nod like Joy, Hateful Eight, or Spotlight!

There is a small chance, but i doubt it with other, more acclaimed blockbusters like Fury Road and The Martian in the contention. Joy and Hateful Eight won't be nominated either.

[stripe]

12 minutes ago, RogueLeader said:

Oh yeah, I'm still wondering about this: Is there ANY chance for TFA getting serious Oscar nominations? Like Best Picture? I think it is fairly deserving of that honor. Last year was not a great year for movies and TFA is a LOT more deserving than other films likely to get a nod like Joy, Hateful Eight, or Spotlight!

 

You are quite off.

 

Neither Joy or Hateful are going to be nommed. The real contenders are other movies. Spotlight is one of them. The others are The Martian, MMFR, Brooklyn, Carol, The Big Short, Revenant, Bridge of Spies, Sicario, Room, Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, or Inside Out.

 

The competition is so strong this year that TFA only has an extreme longshot to be nommed. Even more with other solid blockbusters in the conversation (MMFR, Martian, SOC).

[RamblinRed]

my midline model has TFA at $987M at end of March (down from $997 the week before). $32M weekend this upcoming weekend, with a 40M 4-day holiday. My conservative model is right at $950M. if TFA made 50% of Avatar's gross through 3/31 that would be $967M. (812+155). In response to one poster i doubt Disney had any plans to push TFA as who would have even thought you could get it into the ballpark of 1B - that would have been pretty insane to even think about, frankly it still is. Would Disney want that mark if it was in reach, they are not ones to simply through money to get a mark. There marketing spend for TFA has been below avg because of all their tie ins doing alot of the work for them. If it stayed on my midline model course or the 3X TTT mentioned I don't think Disney would even need a special edition release. It might only need to maybe have a Rogue One trailer attached or maybe some early footage from VIII (like LOTR used to do) to get alot of the SW fans to go another time. If it starts topping out closer to 950 it would definately need a SE. I'm not confident you will see one though as Abrams has already said there will not be an extended edition DVD release. There will be some deleted scenes but not an extended edition.

[WrathOfHan]

Guys, JJ announced the nominees last year  This year is Guillermo Del Toro, Ang Lee, and John Krasinski.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Wow.. John Krasinski, huh?? They must've been really hard up to scrape up Jim Halpert to announce the nominees for this year???

13 Hours tie in.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Remember when a few were kinda shocked that Avatar beat Titanic as the highest DOM grosser at the time? And few others were kinda upset?

 

Well, imagine what the characters in Titanic, had to say about Avatar outgrossing their movie:

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[samsha22]

19 hours ago, Punishment said:

Last time posting this graph as TFA really isn't following any of the LOTR; it is actually following the Hobbit3 the most closely.  $925m to $950m is the more realistic range now.
 

what is TTT?

[baumer]

I could see Krasinski in the role.  Captain America could be played by a lot of people.  Evans is good but Krasinski is fine as well.

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, samsha22 said:

what is TTT?

The Two Towers

[GuardianDevil]

LotR: The Two Towers

[baumer]

FOTR:  Fellowship of the Ring

TTT:  The Two Towers: 

ROTK: Return of the King

TFA:  The Force Awakens

ROTJ: Return of the Jedi

ROTS:  Revenge of the Sith

 

So many acronyms...we should open a thread for just film acronyms.

[Infernus]

17 minutes ago, Baumer said:

FOTR:  Fellowship of the Ring

TTT:  The Two Towers: 

ROTK: Return of the King

TFA:  The Force Awakens

ROTJ: Return of the Jedi

ROTS:  Revenge of the Sith

 

So many acronyms...we should open a thread for just film acronyms.

 

I agree.