stripe Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 (edited) I have seen A Monster Calls, and while I think it might do fine in the US, I really doubt it will be nommed. And it is not a film for kids. Hacksaw Ridge needs to be a big BO story to be seriously considered. It is early, but this year we do not have a film perceived as a big succesful film. And with the expanded BP field there is usually at least one. 2015 - The Martian and Mad Max 2014 - American Sniper 2013 - Gravity 2012 - Django, Lincoln 2011 - The Help 2010 - TS3, Inception This might change if La La Land or Arrival deliver huge numbers. Edited October 27, 2016 by stripe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Interesting new predictions at TFE http://thefilmexperience.net/prediction-index/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, stripe said: Interesting new predictions at TFE http://thefilmexperience.net/prediction-index/ lol @ no Scorsese in Director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: lol @ no Scorsese in Director. could be too esoteric like another kundun or something. i'd predict it but obviously it's not a slam dunk right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: could be too esoteric like another kundun or something. i'd predict it but obviously it's not a slam dunk right now. Whenever a Scorsese movie is nominated for BP, he's always nominated (excluding Taxi Driver). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 you saying that like it's some set in stone rule just feels like setting it up to be broken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 31 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: you saying that like it's some set in stone rule just feels like setting it up to be broken. It's a set in stone rule! Only exception is Taxi Driver, which doesn't count for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 did you know spielberg's been nominated for director for all his best picture nominated movies? Ignore Jaws, The Color Purple, War Horse and Bridge of Spies and you'll see this is a pretty air tight rule. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, cannastop said: It's a set in stone rule! Only exception is Taxi Driver, which doesn't count for some reason. 8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: did you know spielberg's been nominated for director for all his best picture nominated movies? Ignore Jaws, The Color Purple, War Horse and Bridge of Spies and you'll see this is a pretty air tight rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Whenever a Scorsese movie is nominated for BP, he's always nominated (excluding Taxi Driver). Here's another stat. Whenever a Scorsese movie isn't nominated for BP, he also doesn't get nominated. The filmexperience guy doesn't have him in the top5 probably because the movie is still unseen and no one knows how much of an oscar player it will be. Billy Lynn was the lockiest lock for BP/BD nomination until last week and then people saw it nd now it's probably out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Current predictions: Arrival Fences Jackie La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Silence Sully Subject to change, of course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 2 hours ago, Joel M said: Here's another stat. Whenever a Scorsese movie isn't nominated for BP, he also doesn't get nominated. Except for The Last Temptation of Christ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Except for The Last Temptation of Christ. oops! totally missed that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 moonlight is now level with boyhood at 100 metacritic after 36 review counted, so impressive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 18 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Whenever a Scorsese movie is nominated for BP, he's always nominated (excluding Taxi Driver). In a expanded field of BP nominees, this might change soon. Nathaniel usually puts unseen movies in the back of his lists. In his list, Silence is in 9th place (Fences is 7th), and I understand why he's cautious. 1. We have not seen anything about Silence (trailer?, poster?). 2. Not every Scorsese movie gets nominated (Kundun, Shutter Island, Casino). 3. New shorter edited version three months before opening. A sign film is still in post production status. 4. A bunch of movies already seen, praised and well positioned to gain Academy attention (La La Land, Sully, Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Jackie, Lion). 5. December oversaturated with prestige/adult films fighting for audience (Jackie, La La Land, A Monster Calls, Fences, 20th Century Women, Live by Night, Hidden Figures, Patriots Day, Collateral Beauty) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 (edited) arrival pressing hard but sci fi is not oscar friendly current ranking 1. silence 2. fences 3. la la land 4. arrival 5. moonlight 6. jackie 7. 20th century women 8. hidden figures 9. manchester by the sea 10. live by night/loving/allied Edited October 29, 2016 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 11 hours ago, Halba said: 8. hidden figures 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 13 hours ago, Ethan Hunt said: it doesnt matter top 3 is silence, fences and la la land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 All this pressure on Silence and you would think the Studio would want to push it to next year and give Scorsese breathing time to finish it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 2 hours ago, narniadis said: All this pressure on Silence and you would think the Studio would want to push it to next year and give Scorsese breathing time to finish it. Nah. If they did that, it would look bad on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
