Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[department store basement]

I think Seeking a Friend... is easily the most well-known film to be less than 3 weeks in theatres, followed by Blindness (2008 film starring Julianne Moore).

Edited February 1, 2016 by department store basement

[stripe]

I liked Blindness 

[stripe]

Really solid drops for almost everything. Glad to see Room and Brooklyn developing great legs.

 

It still amazes me seeing TFA in 3rd with 2nd best PTA for a wide release.

[baumer]

Solid drops of course but this has more to do with the storm deflating everything last weekend than it does anything else.  

 

Kung Fu Panda did okay I guess.  But its a film series that just seems kind of insignificant to me.  Just judging by my niece, she likes the other two but doesn't love them.  I think that is kind of a micorcosm for how this third one was received.  Even in China, where they had Chinese investors and a Chinese voice cast, it opened mildly.  I guess when all the dust clears it will make about 130 here and 550-600 WW, so that's fine, but it just seems a step behind other giants of animation. And even though the budget is not known, it has to be close to 200 mill, so not sure how much profit they are going to see from this.

 

The Revenant is a bit of a miracle imo.  It's obviously benefiting from terrific wom, which itself is odd.  It's not exactly a warm and fuzzy film.  It's bleak, dark, violent, cold and is the kind of film I'm glad I saw but I doubt I will see again.

 

Star Wars had a terrific hold and will sail past 900 on Friday, probably the same day it pushes past a billion.  It's overseas run is slowing faster than the domestic one now.  Before, that was reversed.  A total stab in the dark says this will probably finish with about 935 million and about 2.05 billion WW.  

 

Too bad the Finest Hours couldn't find an audience, the cinemascore is good and for old farts like me and my friends, it looks like a terrific movie.  I'll be seeing it today.

 

The next five spots all feel in the 30% range, so good for them.  Nice to see The Boy hold up so well.  It was a decent horror film but not a great one really.  

 

Also good to see the Oscar films hold up well.  I'm really pulling for Brooklyn to continue to do well as it was probably by favourite Oscar film this year and Ronan is my pick for best actress, even though Larson is locked.  I hope Room continues to pull in decent numbers as well.

 

This coming weekend is the Super Bowl so expect drops that range from about 55% to 70% on Sunday.  Films like SW and KFP3 will more than likely drop the least on Sunday followed by horror films (they cater more towards a female audience) and then of course all the male centric movies will crumble on Sunday.  If I had to make a prediction, I'd say the drop for SW this coming weekend will be around 42-45%.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

That's an AMAZING drop for TB, it will surpass TF this week 

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

Solid drops of course but this has more to do with the storm deflating everything last weekend than it does anything else.  

 

Kung Fu Panda did okay I guess.  But its a film series that just seems kind of insignificant to me.  Just judging by my niece, she likes the other two but doesn't love them.  I think that is kind of a micorcosm for how this third one was received.  Even in China, where they had Chinese investors and a Chinese voice cast, it opened mildly.  I guess when all the dust clears it will make about 130 here and 550-600 WW, so that's fine, but it just seems a step behind other giants of animation. And even though the budget is not known, it has to be close to 200 mill, so not sure how much profit they are going to see from this.

 

The Revenant is a bit of a miracle imo.  It's obviously benefiting from terrific wom, which itself is odd.  It's not exactly a warm and fuzzy film.  It's bleak, dark, violent, cold and is the kind of film I'm glad I saw but I doubt I will see again.

 

Star Wars had a terrific hold and will sail past 900 on Friday, probably the same day it pushes past a billion.  It's overseas run is slowing faster than the domestic one now.  Before, that was reversed.  A total stab in the dark says this will probably finish with about 935 million and about 2.05 billion WW.  

 

Too bad the Finest Hours couldn't find an audience, the cinemascore is good and for old farts like me and my friends, it looks like a terrific movie.  I'll be seeing it today.

 

The next five spots all feel in the 30% range, so good for them.  Nice to see The Boy hold up so well.  It was a decent horror film but not a great one really.  

 

Also good to see the Oscar films hold up well.  I'm really pulling for Brooklyn to continue to do well as it was probably by favourite Oscar film this year and Ronan is my pick for best actress, even though Larson is locked.  I hope Room continues to pull in decent numbers as well.

 

This coming weekend is the Super Bowl so expect drops that range from about 55% to 70% on Sunday.  Films like SW and KFP3 will more than likely drop the least on Sunday followed by horror films (they cater more towards a female audience) and then of course all the male centric movies will crumble on Sunday.  If I had to make a prediction, I'd say the drop for SW this coming weekend will be around 42-45%.

 

Kung Fu Panda actually held up better than I thought and will hit $41m.  

 

TFA also held up even better than reported and should be around $11.3m when the actuals come out today.  I think at the same point, Jurassic World made another $31m, so I would say the absolute floor for TFA is going to be $935m given it has another big 4 day kids weekend coming up.  Still think it makes it to $950m overall.  

Edited February 1, 2016 by nilephelan
Update

[a2k]

Paddington dropped only 32.6% last SB but that was it's 3rd weekend and had smaller numbers. I hope KFP3 can keep it to 45%.

[Dingdong123]

These days, I feel like Disney just continues to dump these live action serious films of theirs like they don't even care. Like what the hell at least give them some needed marketing, or else don't even produce it in the first place.

[DAJK]

Dirty Grandpa is one of those movies that is admittedly worth a few laughs, but at the same time you know it isn't good. None of the laughs are really clever at all, and it is really only Efron and DeNiro that make it even watchable. Seriously, the two of them are pretty great.

Funny though, that my dad walked out saying "I was kinda disappointed that that sucked, I was expecting more..."

"Um... dad? You were expecting... more from Dirty Grandpa?"

[baumer]

Thanks @nilephelan

[setna]

47 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

Kung Fu Panda actually held up better than I thought and will hit $41m.  

 

TFA also held up even better than reported and should be around $11.3m when the actuals come out today.  I think at the same point, Jurassic World made another $31m, so I would say the absolute floor for TFA is going to be $935m given it has another big 4 day kids weekend coming up.  Still think it makes it to $950m overall.  

 

JW made another 28 million, not 31 and with a re-expansion.  If TFA will make another 30 million would be 925, i see very very difficult going over 935 and almost impossible 950, but i really would love it.

[Joel M]

2 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

Also good to see the Oscar films hold up well.  I'm really pulling for Brooklyn to continue to do well as it was probably by favourite Oscar film this year and Ronan is my pick for best actress, even though Larson is locked.  I hope Room continues to pull in decent numbers as well.

 

I've been paying attention to Spotlight and Brooklyn because they opened in the same weekend and had pretty much identical expansion strategy. Brooklyn opened lower and did slightly worse than Spotlight with 100-200 less screens every week until Christmas, and then it started gaining more $ and screens and will probably pass it if Spotlight doesn't win BP. That's amazing considering Brooklyn had 1/10th of Spotlight's awards buzz/free press for the past 3 months.

[Franklin808]

37 minutes ago, setna said:

 

JW made another 28 million, not 31 and with a re-expansion.  If TFA will make another 30 million would be 925, i see very very difficult going over 935 and almost impossible 950, but i really would love it.

If TFS drops this week are slightly worse then last week it will be right about 907.  Then JW added 22 million more.  Since it looks like TFA will do about 5 million more then JW when the weeks ends.  It really looks like TFA is running a week behind JW (a good thing). So really look at how much JW did from the previous week forward and add that to TFA. So after this week TFA would add another 35+ million.

[Infernus]

Revenant's performance is absolutely wonderful, people thought it would have toxic WOM, someone even said he didn't think it would reach 100 even with a 40m OW and yet it has been having beautiful drops every weekend, this weekend too it had the best drop in the entire top 10 and infact the best in the top 26 when excluding best pic noms and films with major expansions. I am willing to bet the Oscars will have a mightily surprising effect on its gross. Either way, it should reach past 180+ atleast.

[baumer]

About a 21% drop for TFA.  Very nice.

[DAJK]

Revenant's run is something wayyyy out there. A nearly 3 hour violent grisly, "art film" Western...

[jb007]

25 minutes ago, Infernus said:

Revenant's performance is absolutely wonderful, people thought it would have toxic WOM, someone even said he didn't think it would reach 100 even with a 40m OW and yet it has been having beautiful drops every weekend, this weekend too it had the best drop in the entire top 10 and infact the best in the top 26 when excluding best pic noms and films with major expansions. I am willing to bet the Oscars will have a mightily surprising effect on its gross. Either way, it should reach past 180+ atleast.

 

 

Just like Location, Location, Location for Real Estate, it is timing for a movie.

 

The Revenant hit the perfect storm. Won the golden globes on the opening weekend. Got nominated for 12 oscars at the end of the first week. Its good fortune could not have been scripted any better. A better movie would have easily glided past $200M with that kind of opening, timing of awards win/nominations and awards buzz. Now it will have win some majors at the oscars to get past $200M.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2016 by jb007

[Wrath]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Revenant's run is something wayyyy out there. A nearly 3 hour violent grisly, "art film" Western...

 

Its pretty much having the kind of run I suspect a lot of folks (including me), thought Hateful 8 was going to have. Turns out Leo is a better fit than Tarantino's madness.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Revenant's run is something wayyyy out there. A nearly 3 hour violent grisly, "art film" Western...

everyone wants to see leo get ripped apart by that bear. also it plays great in a cinema. i can already tell i'm not gonna like it as much when i see it on netflix or whatever.

[Wrath]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

everyone wants to see leo get ripped apart by that bear. also it plays great in a cinema. i can already tell i'm not gonna like it as much when i see it on netflix or whatever.

 

Yeah, turns out we've all been wrong all-along. The key isn't a 4-quadrant movie, its having a 5-quadrant movie. The missing quadrant being, of course, people who like bears. And people who like bears attacking Leonardo DiCaprio. And, I guess, the actual bears.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Wrath