Sam Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: $180M / $275M $180.69M / $275.69M Fixed that a bit for you. Right, @aabattery? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 (edited) 13 hours ago, UserHN said: According to earlier posts, IW has fantastic WoM in HK, SK, and Taiwan. What will prevent it from having a 9.0+ in China? I mean Douban.RP1 once was 9.2 on Douban.It's this year Coco and Zootopia.it's a sleep hit.AiW is 8.5 on Douban.good But not excellent.Nothing compare with RP1 WoM.Maybe AiW will be 9.0 on Maoyan.8.0+ on Douban.GotG is similar score last year.For GA,CBM film WoM is very similar. PS:China is very unique.Unless it's wide release,everything is unpredictable.HK SK Taiwan may have similar taste.But China may have its own taste Edited April 26, 2018 by bangbingchan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 On 4/25/2018 at 9:35 PM, ZeeSoh said: Infinity War (15 days out) Midnight - 5.62m OD PS - 8.52m (+85.6%) (44374 screens) Sat - 4.27m Sun - 2.35m A huge nearly 86% jump today thanks to about 16k (+60%) screens being added today from new theatre chains. Another thing to note is that the thursday preview numbers are also huge. For comparision it is ahead of where BP was 5 days out and where Thor 3 was 2 days out! Infinity War (14 days out) Midnight - 7.81m OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens) Sat - 8.78m Sun - 5.03m Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 26, 2018 Share Posted April 26, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Infinity War (14 days out) Midnight - 7.81m OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens) Sat - 8.78m Sun - 5.03m Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out! Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So: Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way) 11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic) if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end) Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire Edited April 26, 2018 by feasby007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 12 hours ago, feasby007 said: Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So: Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way) 11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic) if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end) Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire It looks like it'll hit critical mass. I doubt it will be more saturated than FF8. Its going to come down to shows. The larger PS get, the smaller the multi. FF8 165mPS, 417mOD/165k shows =2527 yuan per show=72 people(most theaters are 110 capacity i think)Half full in the daytime, sellouts during primetime. That's about the max for a non summer/holiday Friday OD. FF8 Saturday was 487m/187k shows=2604 yuan per show IW will need 200k shows to do 500m, with a 2:36 runtime (FF8 2:16) I doubt that many shows are possible. So now, to predict OD/OW, we need to to predict the show count. @Proxima Olive @firedeep @bangbingchan @Gavin Feng any thoughts on show count. Can they list 7 shows per day with that runtime? How do listings look so far? Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 @POTUS i have seen the movie twice.. The run time is more like 2 hours 20 min Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Presales slowed down today no doubt. 16,31 mill by 2,30pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 Runtime is 2:29, not 2:36. Not sure how much of a difference 7 minutes makes but anywho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 46 minutes ago, fmpro said: @POTUS i have seen the movie twice.. The run time is more like 2 hours 20 min 38 minutes ago, aabattery said: Runtime is 2:29, not 2:36. Not sure how much of a difference 7 minutes makes but anywho. 7 minute over 7 shows. 49m could be the difference between squeezing in 7 or 6 show in a day RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK its still 13m more than FF8. That adds 91m on 7 shows Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 minute ago, POTUS said: RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK RT is wrong. Im going again for the 3rd later tonight. I will try to time it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 2:36 was the special fan event. There was reportedly a short attached. 2:29 is the official time including credits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, POTUS said: RT says 2:36. IMDB 2:29 IDK 7 minute over 7 shows. 49m could be the difference between squeezing in 7 or 6 show in a day http://www.bbfc.co.uk/releases/avengers-infinity-war-2018 BBFC has it at 149 minutes, and I am inclined to trust them over Rotten Tomatoes. My local cinema also has it at 149 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 150 mins according to Chinese censorship. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 1 min extra Wong for the Chinese people 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 17 hours ago, feasby007 said: Scary thought, 20% increases from now, which seems like a likely thing, gets it to 187M OD presales, which would be likely a 500M+ OD ($79m). I really want to lower that 20%, but lower doesn't seem realistic! Even if it does 15% daily, then 30% penultimate and 50% final gives 152M final. Still a massive number. Edit: Just saw MH2 was doing 11% ish daily for the most part with slightly larger at the end. So: Minimum Presales OD: 63M (11% all the way) 11% for 7 days, 15% for 5 then 30% then 50% gives 119M (realistic) if it ramps up more towards the end like 20% for 5, then 50% then 90% gives 215M OD (high end) Depends when presales slow down, because atm they're still accelerating like fire Slowing down to +25% today could be 15% tomorrow then run as highlighted above which now takes it above 160m+ Thats my call. $190m-210m OW. Assuming show count is 160-170k. Edit. Forgot about XR. I think it will close to FF8 in yuan for OW but it has a better XR at $1=Y6.34 FF8 would have opened to $213m with todays XR I got to go with $205-225m Edited April 27, 2018 by POTUS 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, POTUS said: Slowing down to +25% today could be 15% tomorrow then run as highlighted above which now takes it above 160m+ Thats my call. $190m-210m OW. Assuming show count is 160-170k. Safe zone atp is 160-200 mill IMO. Im 90% sure it will fall in that area Multiplier 1,5-2 so total range is 240-400 mill$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, fmpro said: Safe zone atp is 160-200 mill IMO. Im 90% sure it will fall in that area Multiplier 1,5-2 so total range is 240-400 mill$ Are you basing that on FF8's performance? you need add 8% for XR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, POTUS said: Are you basing that on FF8's performance? you need add 8% for XR I know. But like you mentioned earlier that there could be a little less showtimes. So it could even out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, fmpro said: I know. But like you mentioned earlier that there could be a little less showtimes. So it could even out I was thinking the addition of 8000 screens since FF8 could add showtimes back in. so many variables.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 27, 2018 Share Posted April 27, 2018 (edited) 20 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Infinity War (14 days out) Midnight - 7.81m OD PS - 14.6m (+71.4%) (54640 screens) Sat - 8.78m Sun - 5.03m Another great increase today. About 10k screens were added today which helped some of the rise. Presales are higher than BP when it was 3 days out and higher than Thor 3/GotG2/FB just a day out! Infinity War (13 days out) Midnight - 8.96m OD PS - 18.47 (+26.5%) (59234 screens) Sat - 11.5m Sun - 6.39m A normal jump today after the crazy increases last 2-3 days. Less than 5k screens added today as well. We will see similar small increases for a few days till the week of release unless a lot of screens and showtimes are added on of these days. Edited April 27, 2018 by ZeeSoh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...