Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[pepsa]

23 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

So, a $100M-$110M is the current consensus?

More like $85m + untill we get a better grasp on the WoM.

Not that it will open that low but in china wom is everything so we can't say $95m - $105m for sure because if the reaction is bad it won't get that high. $85m however is pretty locked. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by pepsa

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, UserHN said:

Do you monitor only the Chinese BO or do you also take a glimpse of what's happening in other international markets? Just curious 😊.

I do the derby for domestic. Otherwise, just CBO because its interesting with new records being set, great runs that start small, and there is available data to analyze and project😎

Edited March 4, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[Cooper Legion]

Hmm, so 1.865x that period was added. Better than I expected honestly, I suppose that’s what I’ll update to for Tuesday. 

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I do the derby for domestic. Otherwise, just CBO because its interesting with new records being set, great runs that start small, and there is available data to analyze and project😎

Honestly South Korea is also a pretty fun market to track, you have real time ps tracking. And daily grosses at 12pm or 00am. I doesn't have realtime tickets sold on the days self but we do get reports for milestones like 1 - 2 -3 -4m admission. It's not as big a China but still it has $80m grossing movies 1-3 times a year. 

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Honestly South Korea is also a pretty fun market to track, you have real time ps tracking. And daily grosses at 12pm or 00am. I doesn't have realtime tickets sold on the days self but we do get reports for milestones like 1 - 2 -3 -4m admission. It's not as big a China but still it has $80m grossing movies 1-3 times a year. 

how is the hype there could it hit 40-50 mill ? ( i mean total not ow)

Edited March 4, 2019 by john2000

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

how is the hype there could it hit 40-50 mill ?

It has the biggest ps's for any Solo marvel movie. (Civil war isn't counted as solo movie btw)

Opening is looking like 3.4m admission (about $26.5m) and the total (it doesn't have that much competition, not like antman) if received well could be 2.5 times OW so $66m but Let's say $52m- $58m is more likely. 

[movieboner]

Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW?

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW?

Given how US is currently tracking with Fandango sales, I'd say China Total < US OW is more likely than China OW > US OW. 

 

China looking like $100m+, US looking like $150m+.

 

If US approaches $200m (BIG IF) then CN Total < US OW is plausible given shortness of legs in China.

[Cooper Legion]

35 minutes ago, movieboner said:

Any chance of Captain Marvel China OW>US OW?

If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%.     

 

I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%.

[Stewart]

22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%.     

 

I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%.

Better explained than I did. Rereading my answer I realise I fail to mention the fact that both cases presented are extreme outliers, and the US OW > CN Total is more likely than CN OW > US OW, but both are still incredibly unlikely.

 

I'd put the chances at the moment at probably 1%, 94% and 5% personally. (In order of CN > US, middleground and US > CN Total)

[Gavin Feng]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%.     

 

I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%.

daydream. 9.0 will be incredible for CM.

[charlie Jatinder]

Pre-sales today have added ¥1.3mn in same time as it added ¥1.1mn yesterday. That's roughly 20% up.

For comps, Venom did ¥6.91mn on Tuesday and Civil War did ¥9.1mn.

If that +20% holds, will have ¥7.9mn Tuesday, though I expect it to increase, so we could see ¥8.75-9.25mn IMO.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

daydream. 9.0 will be incredible for CM.

Yeah, I would be pretty happy with 8.9. The context was explaining just how unlikely what they were asking about was.

[charlie Jatinder]

If, feminism worked for the film. I won't be surprised with 9.2 plus.

 

Currently over 60% of tickets sold are male and that should go toward 50% on opening day IMO as Women's day will be there and there we could see a jump in walk-ins. 

 

From the Indian films I tracked, I have noticed that films having more female Audience had better legs.

[Cooper Legion]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Pre-sales today have added ¥1.3mn in same time as it added ¥1.1mn yesterday. That's roughly 20% up.

For comps, Venom did ¥6.91mn on Tuesday and Civil War did ¥9.1mn.

If that +20% holds, will have ¥7.9mn Tuesday, though I expect it to increase, so we could see ¥8.75-9.25mn IMO.

Sunday after midnight sales (adds to Mon total) were a tad stronger than Mon after midnight (adds to Tues total) which skews things slightly. I’ve got:  

yesterday

7-10 +27

10-11 +44   

Today

7-10 +44

10-11  +62    

 

I think gains will pace around +40-50% from yesterday, leading to about +9/10 midnight.   

Looking for benchmarks of about 14:00 24.2, 17:30 26.3, 30.2 midnight.    

 

Spoiler

7:00 21.37

8:00 21.41

8:33 21.445

9:02 21.56

9:32  21.66

10:03 21.81  

10:30 22.02

11:02  22.43

11:30  22.74

12:02 23.02

12:30  Frozen

13:00  23.31

13:32  23.80

14:00  Frozen

14:12  24.17

14:30 Frozen 

15:30  24.88

16:00  25.13

16:30  25.46

17:00  25.67

17:30  26.15  

14:00 update: Maoyan has been a little jerkier than usual today, at least for me. But we’re pretty much right on track with my benchmark above, so no change to estimate.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

Expecting

2 Days Out    ¥30.50
1 Day Out    ¥44.00
Final    ¥77.00

 

Midnight ¥15mn

Opening Day ¥260mn

Saturday ¥280mn

Sunday ¥220mn

 

Total ¥775mn

 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Brinatico]

6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Expecting

2 Days Out    ¥30.50
1 Day Out    ¥44.00
Final    ¥77.00

 

Midnight ¥15mn

Opening Day ¥260mn

Saturday ¥280mn

Sunday ¥220mn

 

Total ¥775mn

 

 

What happens if you prediction free fall 

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If, feminism worked for the film. I won't be surprised with 9.2 plus.

 

Currently over 60% of tickets sold are male and that should go toward 50% on opening day IMO as Women's day will be there and there we could see a jump in walk-ins. 

 

From the Indian films I tracked, I have noticed that films having more female Audience had better legs.

Females definitely have better legs.

Tracking 31m for today. It finally reached 50% of shows at 83k.  A lot of shows still to be listed, could be 50%+ tomorrow and 80%+ on thur. I think it clears 80m. 

[UserHN]

18 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Females definitely have better legs.

Tracking 31m for today. It finally reached 50% of shows at 83k.  A lot of shows still to be listed, could be 50%+ tomorrow and 80%+ on thur. I think it clears 80m. 

Is your prediction for China OW increasing?

[Cooper Legion]

I think I’ll go milder with 30mn, but it’s been a bit of an annoying unevenly stop-and-start day so I’m not sure if the display is even caught up to the reality of tickets sold as I go to bed right now.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion