Thursday Numbers: 7.74 M BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE | 3.20 M ZOOTOPIA | 1.63 M MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING II

[George Parr]

31 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

https://twitter.com/Deadline

 

 The disclaimer we run with matinee projections is that things could get better or worse by nightfall.

 

What an utterly useless disclaimer by deadline. "Numbers could go up or down from projections", really? what a novel concept. Here I thought the number could only stay exactly the same or vanish into thin air so that no number exists anymore

Edited April 1, 2016 by George Parr

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

 

What an utterly useless disclaimer by deadline. "Numbers could go up or down from projections", really? what a novel concept. Here I thought the number could only stay exactly the same or vanish into thin air so that no number exists anymore

They usually put disclaimers like that at the beginning of their articles. Why so salty?

[TommyA10]

52 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

If it were at $980m right now, I think they would have done it and pushed back the digital release a few weeks, but $65m to get there is way too big of a number.  They also don't want to interfere with The Jungle Book in a few weeks.  

I know, but it would still be interesting to see how much potential $$$ could be generated by re-expanding it. 

[ZattMurdock]

51 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

https://twitter.com/Deadline

 

2nd WRITE THRU NOON UPDATE: Typically, the majors have wide releases previewing on Thursday night, but not this weekend. Hence, Warner Bros.’ Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice remains the big guy again at the B.O. with a second session that’s estimated at $61M, -63% per noon matinee forecasts. BvS’ second Friday should come in at $18.5M, which is a 77% free fall from a week ago. Why so steep? Last Friday’s figure included $27.7M worth of Thursday previews. Theater count for BvS, superpowered by Imax, RealD, 4DX, 70MM, grows from 4,242 to 4,256. The best pre-summer second weekend belongs to Warner Bros.’ American Sniper with $64.6M. The disclaimer we run with matinee projections is that things could get better or worse by nightfall.

 

Let's conjuncture for a bit and say that BvS makes exactly $18.5m this Friday. That's a 139% jump from Thursday, but still slightly below Fast 7's 18.8m. My $17.2m Friday prediction is a 122.22% jump from Thursday. A 130% jump would be around $17.8m. 

Edited April 1, 2016 by iJackSparrow

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

I know, but it would still be interesting to see how much potential $$$ could be generated by re-expanding it. 

Avatar couldn't even come close to $65 with its re-expansion, and trying to do the same with Star Wars would just be embarrassing.

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

19 minutes ago, George Parr said:

 

What an utterly useless disclaimer by deadline. "Numbers could go up or down from projections", really? what a novel concept. Here I thought the number could only stay exactly the same or vanish into thin air so that no number exists anymore

 

I think they are being extra careful because there are a lot of fanboys hanging on these numbers and they aren't really as box office savvy as most of us here are to varying levels. It's like saying, "don't be mad at us if it goes below or above 61m this Friday, haha. These are projections, and we've seen people here taking Deadline projections and interpretating like they were saying that BvS had already 15m or 16m of ticket solds for the previews alone, when they were PROJECTIONS. Imagine on other message boards / reddits and stuff. 

Edited April 1, 2016 by iJackSparrow

[TommyA10]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Avatar couldn't even come close to $65 with its re-expansion, and trying to do the same with Star Wars would just be embarrassing.

SW is much bigger than Avatar and has a much bigger (die hard) fan base. It would easily outgross those $15 million. By how much is the question. $65 million would be highly unlikely with a re-expansion. A re-release a few years down the road could possibly do it.

[Chewy]

Just now, TommyA10 said:

SW is much bigger than Avatar and has a much bigger (die hard) fan base. It would easily outgross those $15 million. By how much is the question. $65 million would be highly unlikely with a re-expansion. A re-release a few years down the road could possibly do it.

 

They're releasing a new movie every year, they'll do marathons but why would they schedule a full rerelease? There's no point

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

They're releasing a new movie every year, they'll do marathons but why would they schedule a full rerelease? There's no point

Only if they really wanted a few more ticks on record charts.

 

Which frankly isn't worth it at this stage. They have top DOM, that's what most people will talk about.

Edited April 1, 2016 by RandomJC

[TommyA10]

8 minutes ago, Chewy said:

 

They're releasing a new movie every year, they'll do marathons but why would they schedule a full rerelease? There's no point

I'm not saying they should should. It would be interesting to see, that's all.

[SWXII]

Only 1 film will be able to claim first to a BILLION. 

 

Iger may want that on his list of achievements.

[Maxmoser3]

March 2016 broke record! 948 million for the month! Quarter 1 is overall the biggest start to a year ever.

[Hatebox]

Was anyone not expecting a massive drop? The Easter weekend would have done that even if the bad reviews hadn't.

[johnboy3434]

The two films most comparable to BvS had an average second-weekend drop of 58%. In my view, a 58% drop is the turning point for "bad/good": If the weekend gross is less than $69.7 million, it's a bad drop. If it's more than that, it's a good drop.

Edited April 1, 2016 by johnboy3434

[TheMovieman]

27 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

The two films most comparable to BvS had an average second-weekend drop of 58%. In my view, a 58% drop is the turning point for "bad/good": If the weekend gross is less than $69.7 million, it's a bad drop. If it's more than that, it's a good drop.

 

Well then you might as well call it a bad drop, it's not grossing anywhere near $70M.

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

The two films most comparable to BvS had an average second-weekend drop of 58%. In my view, a 58% drop is the turning point for "bad/good": If the weekend gross is less than $69.7 million, it's a bad drop. If it's more than that, it's a good drop.

 

Theres no way it will drop less than 60%

[junkshop36]

3 hours ago, nilephelan said:

TFA is at $934m today and still going twice as strong as Jurassic World at the same time.  I know it comes out on digital today and Blu-Ray on Tuesday, but think it still might get to $940m with a good second theater run.  

 

I hope it can make it too. 

 

Its weekend drops have been great it's whole run. 

 

Only one weekend drop over 50% and one over 40. Every other weekend has been in the 20s and 30s. 

[SWXII]

42 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

I hope it can make it too. 

 

Its weekend drops have been great it's whole run. 

 

Only one weekend drop over 50% and one over 40. Every other weekend has been in the 20s and 30s. 

 

I think it will end the summer between 945 and 950.

 

If I was the mouse I would run it as a double feature with either Zoo or Jungle or CW all summer in drive-ins. That should bring in another 5 million at least.

 

Putting it in relatively easy striking distance of 1 billion with a 2017 re-release.

[George Parr]

11 hours ago, filmlover said:

They usually put disclaimers like that at the beginning of their articles. Why so salty?

 

I'm not, I just think the disclaimer was worded poorly. I understand that they want to make sure no one nails them over this number when it is only meant as a very rough guideline, but something like "please be aware that these are very early projections which may change with more available data" would sound a whole lot better than "these numbers could go up or down".

[filmnerdjamie]

Yep... that's a disaster alright.