Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[dxmatrixdt]

I think 3.0 multiplier minus Thurs previews.  153(3) + 25 - 484.

[dxmatrixdt]

DERBY UPDATE:   (ERROR ALERT) – I might be missing something here, the average seems low.    71.345 average, 58 players. Welcome to:  jrKan, coolEric258, Frankos72, jesserifkin, and Ridhoazka18.  MarcusG, M37, MCkillswitch123, BK007, DAR, Gamb1993, glassfairy, Olive, Dexter of Suburbia, and AABattery returned.  BIG, BIG turnout.  We missed out with Tower this week.  I put the top 10 in like this: 

Civil War – 179

Jungle Book – 25

Huntsman – 3.9

Keanu – 3.2

Mother’s Day – 11.25

Barbershop – 2.75

Zootopia – 3.1

Ratchet and Clank – 1.55

The Boss – 1.8

Batman V Superman – 1.08

 

 

 

Not sure what happened this weekend with the holdovers.  The Friday numbers were very low.  Comparing  the weeks for  The Avengers(2012),  Age of Ultron,  and The Force Awakens, their respective holdovers had stronger Friday numbers and per screen averages than what took place this week.  Following those patterns should have given better numbers for holdovers this week going down through the top 20.  I really do not think spillover business was the reason why the three comparison weeks had decent holdovers.  I think theaters have it down to a science to get as many show times as possible opening week for a mega tent pole so whoever wants to see it, can see it.  My theory would be for this weekend, lack of overall interest for the rest of the movies up and down (besides Jungle book and Mothers Day).  When the Force Awakens came out, Krampus and Mockingjay held strong on Friday.  When Ultron came out, a lot of the top 20 held strong on Friday compared to the previous Friday. 

Here is a look at the possible top 20 this week with my rearranged estimates.

No Prisoners	85.419
nelmsey	82.769
AndyLL	82.415
Jmorphin	81.803
moviecriticguy	81.590
MarcusG	81.544
JJ-8	81.455
M37	81.405
Bates	79.654
TalismanRing	78.287
BK007	77.510
Ridhoazka18	76.976
Rolling Thunder	76.859
DAR	76.664
8wombi7	76.508
MCKIllswitch123	75.990
Fanboy	75.934
chasmmi	75.920
BoxofficeZ	75.511
PanaMovie	75.503

[Cochofles]

 @BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said that because Chris Evans is hot, mothers all across the nation would be clamoring to see the film on Sunday.

I guess that was not the case...

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

 @BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said that because Chris Evans is hot, mothers all across the nation would be clamoring to see the film on Sunday.

I guess that was not the case...

 

Let it go.  He owned up to his nonsense about 48 hours ago.  

[Ent]

1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Our hold is affected by the weather, it's been absolutely glorious over the weekend, so Cinema's were pretty empty in general. 

 

Same in Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg and most of continental northern Europe.

 

Those are the first unexpected super sunny days of the year after a cold rainy April.  

 

Everyone is outside at cafes, restaurants or enjoy a trip at the sea during that lengthy weekend since most companies postponned that Labour Day that fell on a sunday till last friday.

 

I went to the hospital to get some exams results on friday and i was told my doctor like half of them were off.

 

Only the emergency service was still 100% fully operational while streets were deserts with few cars like a holliday as people were all outside at terrasses and cafes enjoying the sun.

 

Noone goes at theaters when the weather is like that.

[baumer]

Then holds this coming weekend should be better than normal.

[FilmBuff]

The ow was okay, but not the ow I thoughtd Itd be.

[WrathOfHan]

 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

People think with their heart, not their brain.

 

I had a girlfriend once who told me a 3rd angle

[fmpro]

53 minutes ago, Baumer said:

I am really curious what kind of multiplier this will have.  I know it won't go as low as Ultron and it won't go as high as WS.  So is 2.5 reasonable?

 

Yeah. OW Should be around 40% of total on this one

[EmpireCity]

Not surprising at all given how male centered Civil War is and seeing the massive increases in Jungle Book and Mother's Day.  Should have a smaller drop on Monday.  

[Ent]

Here are the MCU movies multipliers for every one of them that opened above $70M.

 

Quote

 

IM RT = 94% -> legs = 3.24 
TA RT = 92 % -> legs = 3 
GOTG RT = 91% -> legs = 3.54 
 

CACW RT = 91% -> legs = ? 

WINTER SOLDIER = 89% -> legs = 2.75 

IM3 = 79% -> legs = 2.34 
AOU = 75% -> legs = 2.45 

IM2 = 72% -> legs = 2.43 

TTDW = 66% -> legs = 2.38

 

 

So to me, there is an established correlation between the critical reception and the multiplier.  

 

I can see CACW missing that 3X multiplier because as TA demonstrated it is indeed very difficult to get there once you open that big.

 

That said a multipiler around Winter Soldier could happen and for me the absolute lowest based on those statistics would be a 2.65 multiplier which will put it around $470M

Edited May 9, 2016 by Ent

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Belakor said:

The concept could actually work, Can´t wait for 5theMayo and saint patrick's day movie to get wasted inside the theater.

Cinema n draft  house. I'm there with ya. Tear it up!

[RandomCat]

So, I've only read up to page 100...

Is it actually worth reading the next 100?

[Captain Craig]

Solid opening. Attempts to downplay this monstrous opening are also proof of people projecting.

Many thought $200m+ would be possible but, hey, it opened huge all the same.

It shows that "comic book fatigue" as predicted by every 7th person since 2012 has still yet to set in. Try again with Dr.Strange you comic book haters. XM:A is likely to do well also.

 

 

[mahnamahna]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Great for TJB. Goes up by 3.3m for just over 25m. ~42% weekend drop.

I'd say Mother's Day had a more impressive increase.... $3.5 million to $6.1 million! 

 

At least JB has critical acclaim and spillover from Civil War going for it... Mother's Day only has the titular holiday.

 

It might get a 4x-5x without having to do much at all, since I don't think it'll drop much over the next month. As the only option for older women, it could potentially do $45-50 million DOM when all is said and done. 

 

JB rebounded nicely, though. It should do $19-20 million next weekend and stay on track for $340-350 million DOM 

 

Hopefully Zootopia gets a MD boost and gets to $3-3.5 million this weekend. 

[FilmBuff]

10 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

So, I've only read up to page 100...

Is it actually worth reading the next 100?

 

Not unless you want to see this forum's version of civil war played out trying to decide if this a CA or Avengers movie.

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, Belakor said:

CW  is one the most overhyped and overrated movies in history.  Everyone were expecting SW7 numbers & a DK-type reception.

Gosh, I wouldn't try to judge its box office performance based on how much you personally like it.

 

Since it made less than $200M opening weekend, do you think, "Aha! You ain't hot shit after all! Overrated!"

[ecstasy]

4 hours ago, Rth said:

mother's day effect

CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48

Yikes! That's way worse than predicted for CW. But Mother's Day exploded! Wonder if it's any good?

 

So 178 at the most for CW I guess.

[Deep Wang]

38 minutes ago, Ent said:

Here are the MCU movies multipliers for every one of them that opened above $70M.

 

 

So to me, there is an established correlation between the critical reception and the multiplier.  

 

I can see CACW missing that 3X multiplier because as TA demonstrated it is indeed very difficult to get there once you open that big.

 

That said a multipiler around Winter Soldier could happen and for me the absolute lowest based on those statistics would be a 2.65 multiplier which will put it around $470M

 

There is a greater correlation between IM, Avengers, and GOTG - they're all non sequels. 

 

Yes, they also had stellar reviews which helped, but I think it's more important that they weren't sequels.  This is the 13th movie in the franchise and it just had $25m in early shows and an almost $180m opening weekend.  It's not going to sniff a 2.7, and you know what?  That's okay.