Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

Please don't call me a hater, because I am not.

 

Has ANYONE considered this movie opening way, way lower than we are all anticipated?

 

I am talking $160-$170 million, BvS range?

 

- Superhero fatigue?, specially "Avengers"

- Frontloadness?

- Ultron ugly internal multiplier.

 

This would be something in these forums if this happens.

[NCsoft]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

That will change with Avatar 2.

 

No way it makes anything close to 2.7 billion.

It absolutely will, the Chinese Market will ensure that.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

 

Nope...said it first about two months ago. 

I think the record might happen sooner than 10 years.

 

Assuming that ticket prices increase at a rate of 3.5% a year (a pretty high rate compared to previous years) and the current average price of $8.58, the ticket price of 2026 will be $12.10. In order to beat The Force Awakens opening weekend of $248M, a movie will have to sell 20.5 million tickets.

 

Marvel's The Avengers, Jurassic World, Age of Ultron, The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 3, and Iron Man 3 have all easily met that mark. Of course, if the superhero craze dies out and ticket prices stagnate, it might be longer than 10 years to top the record.

[The Futurist]

Don't be surprised if the next Avengers movies do "only" 130-140-150m OWs.

 

With the DCEU rolling out, a new era has started, an era with 6 to 8 big superheroes movies a year, EVERY year, the market over-saturation is gonna do its evil work on superhero movies.

 

And it will be ok.

Movies don't have to do 300-600m dom to be succeses.

 

 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Main problem might be that laughable BO..com prediction of 230/605m lol

 

The last forecast was 214m

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war/

 

I remember the long-rage being 200/550m. When did they go 230/605? Yeah they were bullish all along.

[NCsoft]

7 minutes ago, scoobysaurus said:

 

Agreed, but it doesn't need to. Anything over 2.066b will keep it ahead of Star Wars for the foreseeable future. 

 

Yes because future Star Wars EPs will not likely top TFA WW, not in the foreseeable future anyway.

[baumer]

Just now, The Futurist said:

Don't be surprised if the next Avengers movies do "only" 130-140-150m OWs.

 

With the DCEU rolling out, a new era has started, an era with 6 to 8 big superheroes movies a year, EVERY year, the market over-saturation is gonna do its evil work on superhero movies.

 

And it will be ok.

Movies don't have to do 300-600m dom to be succeses.

 

 

 

Are you saying that the next Avengers movie will make less than 300 million?  Which one?  Infinity?

[moviesRus]

7 minutes ago, VGPOP said:

That's easy.

$75 million Friday

$52.5 million Saturday

$42.5 million Sunday

 

 

 

That would require some shitty BvS WOM.

[Rman823]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Are you saying that the next Avengers movie will make less than 300 million?  Which one?  Infinity?

Infinity War under Deadpool ? 

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

The last forecast was 214m

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-captain-america-civil-war/

 

I remember the long-rage being 200/550m. When did they go 230/605? Yeah they were bullish all along.

 

 

Actuallybin their last forecast they had 605m as the final gross 

[kayumanggi]

#Deadpool breaks Digital HD sales records on home video https://t.co/gfaNCaIqWl pic.twitter.com/GWi7AKiavS

— Variety (@Variety) May 6, 2016

[filmscholar]

So Previews were under BatsVSupes and Ultron.   Interesting.  Also the weather has been crap here on the Eastcoast as well as Mother's Day Sunday.  I'm definitely in the under "Ultron" side for now.   So that's a range of 175-190.    But it's still early and we have to see how it performs today.  

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Well, this is still a Captain America movie.  So whatever it opens to it does not spell out any kind of fatigue.....it's going to pretty much double the opening of WS.....so what is there to complain about?

 

It's also unofficially Avengers 2.5 and one of the best reviewed Marvel films.

 

So people wanted the magical number of 200 m OW.

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

We have now found why CW's previews weren't, like, juggernaut like some people predicted or whatever: DEADPOOL HAS KILLED CW'S PREVIEWS 

 

 

 

 

 

[Thrylos 7]

Avatar 2 is doing over 3 billion WW . 

[VGPOP]

2 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

That would require some shitty BvS WOM.

It has nothing to do with that at all.

 

Perhaps the general public are getting tired of the franchise?

 

We can't rule this possibility, IF it happens.

 

What is this like the 13th movie in this franchise I read somewhere?

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Avatar 2 is doing over 3 billion WW . 

 

 

[The Futurist]

14 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Are you saying that the next Avengers movie will make less than 300 million?  Which one?  Infinity?

 

Well obviously the Avengers brand is a special case so big numbers should be expected.

While 300m seems low, it wouldn't strike me as crazy as you might think, especially for Avengers 3.

 

Look at what happened to BvS, I don't predict much here but until the release of the movie,  I said to myself, no way this does less than 400m dom & look what happened, and Yes I know, the reviews and bad buzz kind of destroyed any legs for the movie but still, seems like a petty number for the event it was supposed to be.

 

Those movies will have more difficulties to be gigantic & events as years pass by IMO because of the rhythm of the release pattern.

 

X-Men Apocalypse will be the Fourth big superhero movie in just 3 months.

 

That s nuts.

 

And it s going to be like that, every year.

 

Marvel Studios will release 3 movies a year, starting 2017.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2016 by The Futurist

[Daxtreme]

As predicted, people are panicking all around, but let's not forget that this is a Captain America movie by name.

 

No matter how much the marketing wants you to believe otherwise, some people aren't showing up because they think it's exactly that, a Cap movie, not an Avengers movie.

 

Nearly doubling TWS' OW, this is a huge success no matter how you look at it.

[baumer]

Just now, Daxtreme said:

As predicted, people are panicking all around, but let's not forget that this is a Captain America movie by name.

 

No matter how much the marketing wants you to believe otherwise, some people aren't showing up because they think it's exactly that, a Cap movie, not an Avengers movie.

 

Nearly doubling TWS' OW, this is a huge success no matter how you look at it.

 

wHO'S PANICKING?  It's been pretty calm.