Summer 2016 Bombs

[Arlborn]

54 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

Oh sorry, I didn't realise it was releasing later in the US. I just seen posters that say it's out on 24 June so assumed that was the case in the States.

 

Regardless, my point still stands. People expecting 400M+ are in for a rude awakening.

It'll do more than Civil War.

[Macleod]

Hollywood Reporter has a good piece up explaining why *all* the major studios may have "issues" this Summer and beyond...except for Disney, where 'Alice' seems like a blip on the radar.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/alice-x-men-messes-studio-898137

 

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by Macleod

[dudalb]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

@KGator

 

You realize how popular the DVD is, right? Finding Nemo finds a brand new audience every single day.

That's the thing about the Great Disney classics. They find lots of new fans with every new generation. I can show you a lot of kids nowdays who,for example,love "Mary Poppins".And that movie is over 50 years old. The Great Disney films have a timeless quality.

And Pixar films have always been able to grab a huge adult audience....until The Good Dinosaur.

Edited June 1, 2016 by dudalb

[dudalb]

The Ben Hur remake has bomb written all over it, if ever a movie did.

IMHO if Disney has a second fail this Summer it will be Pete's Dragon,a remake of a film that is not exactly considered one of Disney's masterpieces anyway.

 

[Porthos]

FWIW, FD is periodically showing up on Fandango Pulse, and it's still a little more than two weeks from release.  It's not setting the world on fire with presales, no.  It's not at the Top Five yet for Movie Tickets, either.  But it is selling a decent amount of tickets for something this far out.

[robertman2]

I have a feeling BvS could negatively effect Suicide Squad 

[dudalb]

On ‎5‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 7:28 PM, The Futurist said:

Ben Hur is not a bomb, it s an hilarious joke.

It is one of those remakes whose only accomplishment will be to remind people of how much better the original version were (though you could say versions, since the 1926 Ben Hur is actually pretty good) then the crappy remake.

[dudalb]

Warners "Tarzan" and Sony's "Ghostbusters" also look like they might be on Bombing Missions.

Consequences could be dire for management at Sony if Ghostbusters fails.Then not only need for it to succeed,they need for it to succeed big time. And Sony might be looking to sell off Sony Films. If they do,maybe the Return of Columbia Pictures?

 

"Warcraft" will bomb in the US,but overseas will cause Lengendary to at least get it's money back. I see a Pacific Rim scenario:It makes a modest profit,but  a franchise will be up in the air.

Edited June 1, 2016 by dudalb

[department store basement]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I see a Pacific Rim scenario:It makes a modest profit,but  a franchise will be up in the air.

 

Pacific Rim made 100m in the US though, in no small part due to its great critical acclaim. Warcraft won't be up there since the reviews are terrible.

[RichWS]

1 hour ago, robertman2 said:

I have a feeling BvS could negatively effect Suicide Squad 

 

Only if it's not good. If it works, it'll be fine. 

[filmlover]

It won't be one of the biggest financial bombs, but I'm fully expecting Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates to be one of the lowest-grossing wide releases. It has everything against it so far. An unsympathetic premise with what look to be unlikable characters from the marketing campaign. Stars (Efron, Kendrick) that are not reliable draws at all. A wordy and un-marquee-friendly title.

[department store basement]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It won't be one of the biggest financial bombs, but I'm fully expecting Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates to be one of the lowest-grossing wide releases. It has everything against it so far. An unsympathetic premise with what look to be unlikable characters from the marketing campaign. Stars (Efron, Kendrick) that are not reliable draws at all. A wordy and un-marquee-friendly title.

 

I can't see it doing that bad.

 

I think Bad Moms will be the comedy bomb of the summer.

[SteveJaros]

22 hours ago, filmlover said:

If you're just going to toss out random numbers that even you obviously don't believe in then you probably shouldn't bother playing the box office game in the first place. Just saying.

 

I don't toss out random numbers to predict opening and final box office, but I don't rely on "analytics" either. I go on my gut feeling. I see a lot of movies in the theater, 60 so far this year (well over 100 a year is normal for me), I follow the movie press, and these box office sites, and I have been doing all of that for a long time (I first remember checking weekly box office numbers during the summer of 1982, tracking whether ET would catch Star Wars). From all of that, I get a feel for the level of "buzz" there is for a movie, and then I go on that. Yes, it's entirely subjective, but it is informed by those things.

 

One thing I will say I have been educated on around here is what happens after opening weekend. There does seem to be a mathematical pattern, which people call a "multiplier", that has some validity, and I need to do a better job of incorporating that into my post-opening week analysis. Movies don't generally just fall off the earth if they open big (one exception i seem to remember was "Lost in Space" in 1998) and they don't go on a tear and end up huge if they open small (though we all remember the first "Greek Wedding"). Although recently, we've seen two movies - BvS and CACW - open gigantically and then get smaller pretty quick. That might be a coming trend for hugely hyped films. 

Edited June 2, 2016 by SteveJaros

[The Panda]

I think never-ending sequels might be turn-offs to audiences.  Sure, some franchises still have lots of holding power and so do sequels that audiences care about, but look at what has thrived earlier this year.  

 

Deadpool, although a comic book film, looked like a unique and original comedy.  Zootopia had glowing reviews and a unique and original premise.  The Jungle Book looked like a fresh take on the classic story.  Even Civil War and BvS were unique compared to past superhero films.

 

Im thinking so many of these sequels are looking bland to audiences, because they aren't standing out (plus an overload of them).   The only two im banking on to be major successes are Finding Dory and Conjuring.

[filmlover]

I'd kinda like to think that Hollywood will get the message that not every movie that makes money needs a sequel after this year.

[Porthos]

Well, Alice 2 is a bomb under most definitons now, I think.  It stands at 217.5 WW right now and I don't know how much higher it's actually gonna get.  Looks like it only did around $38m in the last reported week of numbers WW (that's just going off of archived numbers from Mojo via the wayback machine).

 

My question to the forum is, what number does ID:R need to pull WW for it not to be labled a bomb?  Reports are that it had around a $200m to $250m budget, FWIW.  So $400m?  $350m?  Surely it's going to be able to pass even those meager benchmarks, yes?  I want to say that ID:R should easily hit $500m WW but I just don't know given how it's all playing out right now.

[dudalb]

The rule of thumb is since studios only get half the box office worldwide when everything is averaged in,you need Twice the film's production budget to just break even.

The joker is this does not include marketing,which studiios carry on a different budget then production costs,and marketing nowdays costs at least 100 Milliion for a average size campaing,more if you pull out the stops.

IMHO it if massively underperforms in the U.S.,it will be very hard for this to get to 400 Million, let alone 500 Million.

[Porthos]

I've been mean enough to ID:R lately, so I'll refrain from posting the Strangelove gif again.  Though it would be fitting.

 

With it bombing in US and underperforming in China AND what appears to be near-toxic WOM in the domestic market, it looks like Independence Day: Resurgence is the next entry onto this list.  Who would have thought that sequels to two 300+ million grossers before adjustment for inflation was taken into account would be the first two entries in this list?  Even though I was highly skeptical of ID:R, I didn't dream it'd do THIS badly. 

 

[cookie]

I thought my $200m predict for IDR was being a bit cautious. At this rate it's going to do half of that.

[MCKillswitch123]

The official subtitle of this thread should be "Too Many To Count".