Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, Rallax said:

 

It's looking real good, but yeah, too soon to call it locked.  Let's at least wait and see what the Friday total is.  

 

TS3 dropped 10% -- 10%! -- from Friday to Saturday, way back in 2010. That was practically unheard-of for an animated movie opening in summer. It's six years later and the preview/OW ratio has gotten even more extreme. 

 

A 50m+ Friday means the record, most likely. Sub-50m and things are still very fluid. 

[DAR]

CI only cost 50m?  It's going to make a nice profit.

 

As for Dory, 9.2.  I thought nobody asked for this movie

[James]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Shut up James. Finding Nemo is the greatest animation ever and you should worship it

The only truly great movie that ever came from Pixar was Ratatouille. The rest were either acceptable or downright bad. But it's ok. We can't all have good tastes. 

[FlashMaster659]

Remember that Minions' previews started at 6pm and this started an hour later.

[Ethan Hunt]

Tele keeps trying to ruin my weekend. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Remember that Minions' previews started at 6pm and this started an hour later.

 

Honestly, that's basically meaningless. An hour isn't gonna make much difference in shows, and in this particular case it probably outweighed by the greater percentage of adults going to see DORY. 

[Eric Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

I think there's a chance the animation record doesn't fall. Pixar movies are -- by far -- the most frontloaded of animated movies (because of their larger grownup fanbase) and with DORY being a highly anticipated sequel, it's possible that the preview number is inflated compared to the rest of the weekend. 

[Deep Wang]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Tele keeps trying to ruin my weekend. 

 

No, he's trying to keep your expectations in check. 

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, James said:

The only truly great movie that ever came from Pixar was Ratatouille. The rest were either acceptable or downright bad. But it's ok. We can't all have good tastes. 

You must have had an awful childhood 

[efialtes76]

Just now, James said:

The only truly great movie that ever came from Pixar was Ratatouille. The rest were either acceptable or downright bad. But it's ok. We can't all have good tastes. 

Ratatouille is my favourite but Pixar has many great movies(Wall-E,Inside Out,The Incredibles,Toy Story,Monsters Inc...)

[Lestranger]

Gonna be higher than we think. Once movies like this start a feedback loop of positive WOM on social media, throw the stats out the window. I would say 150 is the floor.

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

I think there's a chance the animation record doesn't fall. Pixar movies are -- by far -- the most frontloaded of animated movies (because of their larger grownup fanbase) and with DORY being a highly anticipated sequel, it's possible that the preview number is inflated compared to the rest of the weekend. 

 

Toy Story 3 had 4M of midnight previews, and it still opened to 110M w/a sub 10% drop on Sat after a 40M OD (which was equally unheard of for animations, even Shrek movies had lower OD's ), and a sub 15% Sun drop. 

Monsters University had over 2M previews iirc, 30M+ OD, a 5.7% drop on Sat and a sub 20% drop on Sun.

Inside Out (while not the best example cause it is an original) had a similar enough multiplier to MU's, only w/higher previews and OD.

 

Comparatively, Minions dropped 15% and 20% on Sat and Sun respectively after a near 50M OD.

 

So, yeah Tele, Pixar movies, even the big sequels, aren't THAT frontloaded.

Edited June 17, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[efialtes76]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Shut up James. Finding Nemo is the greatest animation ever and you should worship it

NO.

[Ethan Hunt]

We should probably burn people who don't like Finding Nemo at the stake, no?

[The Futurist]

Fishes.

I eat them.

[Ezen Baklattan]

4 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

I think there's a chance the animation record doesn't fall. Pixar movies are -- by far -- the most frontloaded of animated movies (because of their larger grownup fanbase) and with DORY being a highly anticipated sequel, it's possible that the preview number is inflated compared to the rest of the weekend. 

Domestic record, maybe, but it looks like the OW record is going down for sure.

 

Suppose Dory gets a 5.8x Thursday multiplier. (Much lower than Minions, which had around 7.7x and was probably the next best comparison/highest midnight share for an animated film so far). That translate to a 53.36m Friday gross.

 

53.36

44.16 (Flat from Friday minus previews)

35.77 (A Father's Day drop close to IO, which is pretty reasonable, IMO)

 

 

That's a $133.29m weekend. Even with more conservative estimates, I don't see it falling under $125m.

 

Give MU legs to the weekend I extrapolated, that's $434m, a couple million short of Shrek 2's record. Toy Story 3 legs put it at $501m (lol). Somewhere in between is reasonable, and over $400m is very likely.

 

[FilmBuff]

It's scorching in the SW this weekend. So I could see it missing the animation ow bc of it. 

[Daxtreme]

[wildphantom]

Finally, we've got an exciting weekend coming up!! Cannot wait for that rough Friday number later tonight. 

[James]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

You must have had an awful childhood 

My dad loves LOTR and animation classics such as The Lion King, plus horror movies. So I grew up with those. As for Nemo, it barely registered here. Dory looks to follow suit. It will likely flop horribly this weekend based on presales.