Weekend Thread | Read first post for rules | Weekend #s: Pets 50.56M, GB 46M, Tarzan 11.1M, FTF 11M, MND 7.5M, Purge 6M

[a2k]

Rank*	Title	Friday 7/15	Saturday 7/16	Sunday 7/17	Monday 7/18
1	THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS Universal 4,381	$15,198,895 +46.3% / $3,469 $167,786,760 / 8	$20,028,900 +31.8% / $4,572 $187,815,660 / 9	$15,610,560 -22.1% / $3,563 $203,426,220 / 10	N/A
2	GHOSTBUSTERS (2016) Sony / Columbia 3,963	$17,129,166 -- / $4,322 $17,129,166 / 1	$16,395,482 -4.3% / $4,137 $33,524,648 / 2	$12,494,107 -23.8% / $3,153 $46,018,755 / 3	N/A
3	FINDING DORY Buena Vista 3,536	$3,310,593 +27.6% / $936 $437,775,043 / 29	$4,411,116 +33.2% / $1,247 $442,186,159 / 30	$3,559,470 -19.3% / $1,007 $445,745,629 / 31	N/A
4	THE LEGEND OF TARZAN Warner Bros. 3,551	$3,357,236 +59.6% / $945 $95,287,493 / 15	$4,641,582 +38.3% / $1,307 $99,929,075 / 16	$3,442,519 -25.8% / $969 $103,371,594 / 17	N/A
5	MIKE AND DAVE NEED WEDDING DATES Fox 3,008	$2,365,355 +57.2% / $786 $26,189,071 / 8	$2,962,898 +25.3% / $985 $29,151,969 / 9	$2,329,665 -21.4% / $774 $31,481,634 / 10	N/A
6	THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR Universal 2,671	$1,948,825 +54.9% / $730 $66,870,485 / 15	$2,427,525 +24.6% / $909 $69,298,010 / 16	$1,809,345 -25.5% / $677 $71,107,355 / 17	N/A
7	THE INFILTRATOR Broad Green Pictures 1,601	$1,503,686 +118.2% / $939 $2,966,535 / 3	$2,201,768 +46.4% / $1,375 $5,168,303 / 4	$1,598,321 -27.4% / $998 $6,766,624 / 5	N/A
8	CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Warner Bros. (New Line) 2,381	$1,588,783 +80% / $667 $113,797,086 / 29	$2,253,175 +41.8% / $946 $116,050,261 / 30	$1,530,055 -32.1% / $643 $117,580,316 / 31	N/A
9	THE BFG Buena Vista 2,182	$1,159,503 +7.2% / $531 $44,749,114 / 15	$1,516,209 +30.8% / $695 $46,265,323 / 16	$1,113,722 -26.5% / $510 $47,379,045 / 17	N/A
10	INDEPENDENCE DAY: RESURGENCE Fox 2,290	$978,651 +33.6% / $427 $96,045,094 / 22	$1,476,674 +50.9% / $645 $97,521,768 / 23	$1,065,957 -27.8% / $465 $98,587,725 / 24

[Krissykins]

Phew!! 

 

I'm glad Ghostbusters stayed above $46m

 

The Shallows gained from estimates too. So no fudging

Edited July 18, 2016 by Krissykins

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Phew!! 

 

I'm glad Ghostbusters stayed above $46m

 

The Shallows gained from estimates too. So no fudging

Probably stole a few thousand from Angry Birds to fudge both of them over. Then again does Angry Birds even have a few thousand to give. 

[Jason]

Alright, so I've done the graphs and analysis comparing 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW (the "Baumer Metric"). Long story short, for films released in summer it's probably worth examining the entire 2nd week vs OW in addition to just the 2nd weekend vs OW. Taken together, these metrics suggest it's unlikely for Pets to have a multiplier below ~3.1 ($323M), and the most probable multiplier is around 3.3 ($344M).

 

The set of data is from a total of 76 films. Criteria for inclusion are as follows:

1. The film must have had a Friday opening.

2. The film must appear on all three of these lists: OW, 2nd weekends, and 10-day totals. This is in large part for my convenience, but I'm doubtful that a wider set of films would produce a more accurate result for our film of interest (Secret Life of Pets).

3. The film must have completed or nearly completed its box office run. This excludes Finding Dory and Secret Life of Pets.

4. The film must not be Avatar. It's a ridiculous outlier and all by itself causes a significant reduction in the strength of the correlations, which is pretty absurd in a data set of this size.

 

Sorry for the poor quality of the graphs, they look a lot better in Excel. I'm still working on a better way to export them as images, I'll replace them once I've got that figured out.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the 2nd weekend to the opening weekend:

The black points represent the entire data set, with red squares around summer films (N=41, released from May to August inclusive), blue triangles around non-summer films (N=35), and purple circles around films classified as "animated" by Box Office Mojo (N=12). The lines of best fit are similarly colour-coded. The R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001), and shows that about 80% of the variance in the multiplier can be predicted from the ratio of 2nd weekend to opening weekend. There does appear to be a slightly different relationship for summer films vs. non-summer films. I haven't done a significance test for that yet, it'll take a while. The animated film set isn't large enough to justify a separate mathematical analysis, but by inspection it does appear that animated films mostly follow the trend for other summer/non-summer films. Shrek Forever After and Zootopia deviate the most from the general trend.

 

Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the full 2nd week (Mon-Sun) to the opening weekend:

The data points and lines of best fit are coded the same as in the previous graph. Again, the R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001). However, while the strength of correlation for the summer set is about the same, the strength of the correlation for the winter set is reduced significantly (P<0.05). This makes sense given the relative weakness of weekdays outside of summer, and further justifies treating summer films and non-summer films separately. Even though the strength of the correlation is about the same for summer films using either metric, visual inspection makes it clear that the two metrics are not the same. Using the entire second week, Shrek Forever After no longer obviously deviates from the general trend for summer films, and instead Finding Nemo and Up appear to be outliers.

 

I decided to combine the two metrics for summer films to see if that would increase the strength of the correlation compared to either metric alone. The following graph compares the multiplier to the simple unweighted average of the 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW ratios:

Here the summer films are represented by solid red squares, with purple circles surrounding animated films. Visual inspection makes it appear as though their might be a non-linear relationship, but an exponential fit is not significantly better, nor were any other basic fits. I suspect that the appearance of non-linearity is an artifact being created by a few outliers. The R-squared value of 0.88 for the linear regression of this combined metric is higher than the value for each of the individual metrics, but falls short of being a significant improvement by usual standards of statistical scrutiny (P<0.05). That being said, while the actual P-value of 0.14 falls short of usual standards, a 14% chance of this improved relationship occurring by chance is good enough for me to take it into consideration. Again, the summer animated films generally follow the trend of other summer films, although Finding Nemo and Up deviate quite noticeably.

 

What does this all mean for Secret Life of Pets? Using visual inspection rather than a precise calculation (since I don't know the amount of error in the slopes and intercept calculated by the regression):

Based on the first graph - 2nd weekend/OW = 0.485, multiplier of around 3-3.3 ($313M - $344M)

Based on the second graph - 2nd week/OW = 0.947, multiplier of around 3.2-3.6 ($333M - $376M)

Based on the third graph - Average = 0.716, multiplier of around 3.2-3.4 ($333M - $355M)

 

So as much as I'd rather it didn't, I think Pets has about a 50/50 chance of beating Zootopia. (Nothing against Pets - my avatar should suffice as explanation.)

 

Thanks @Baumer, good insight to take into consideration full second week as well as weekend for summer films.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Jason

[Bishop54]

That's a horrible case of fudge. I bet they stole some cash from Underworld Blood Wars which doesn't come out until 1/2017.

[a2k]

Will The Big Friendly Goop touch 60? I don't think so.

[a2k]

the-numbers.com has a changed to a number which is neither the estimate (46,000,000) nor the actual (46,018,755)

 

Ghostbusters

Sony Pictures

$45,929,166

 

edit:

and they have updated...

Ghostbusters

Sony Pictures

$46,018,755

Edited July 18, 2016 by a2knet

[JohnnyGossamer]

Nice enough opening for Ghostbusters: Answer The Call. Expecting a flat 3.0 multi for a total DOM just under $140M.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Going to see Ghostbusters tonight in IMAX.

[baumer]

@Telemachos eyes are burning as you read this. He's watching Ghostbusters 

[robertman2]

Saw Ghostbusters today, pretty medicore. Wasn't that good, but it wasn't that bad. 5/10

[Fancyarcher]

3 hours ago, MrPink said:

@nilephelan

 

Does this mean Dory jumped over Tarzan?

 

 

Yup, the V lost.

[grim22]

Just now, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Yup, the V lost.

 

No. The V was triumphant

 

3	2	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$11,441,337	-45.5%	3,551	-40	$3,222	$103,371,594	$180	3
4	3	Finding Dory	BV	$11,281,179	-45.8%	3,536	-335	$3,190	$445,745,629	-	5

[a2k]

GB bo gets the 'neither that good, nor that bad' award of the year.

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

No. The V was triumphant

 

3	2	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$11,441,337	-45.5%	3,551	-40	$3,222	$103,371,594	$180	3
4	3	Finding Dory	BV	$11,281,179	-45.8%	3,536	-335	$3,190	$445,745,629	-	5

 

Close, but no fish success here.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[kitik]

32 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Nice enough opening for Ghostbusters

 

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

GB bo gets the 'neither that good, nor that bad' award of the year.

 

Nobody will confuse it for Deadpool's numbers, but Ghostbusters opened above: The BFG, Tarzan, Independence Day, Warcraft, NYSM2, Central Intelligence, TMNT 6, Alice 2, and Angry Birds.

 

It's definitely leaning more towards good.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, kitik said:

 

 

Nobody will confuse it for Deadpool's numbers, but Ghostbusters opened above: The BFG, Tarzan, Independence Day, Warcraft, NYSM2, Central Intelligence, TMNT 6, Alice 2, and Angry Birds.

 

It's definitely leaning more towards good.

 

 

think he means for the budget. Also Ghostbusters isn't guaranteed to have international grosses save it like a lot of other movies can 

[Napoleon]

So much for Ghostbusters pulling Fantastic Four 2015 numbers 

[Hatebox]

3 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

Nobody will confuse it for Deadpool's numbers, but Ghostbusters opened above: The BFG, Tarzan, Independence Day, Warcraft, NYSM2, Central Intelligence, TMNT 6, Alice 2, and Angry Birds.

 

It's definitely leaning more towards good.

 

That's probably more of an indictment on a piss-poor summer season so far, but it's decent enough for Ghostbusters.

 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by Hatebox

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

 

Nobody will confuse it for Deadpool's numbers, but Ghostbusters opened above: The BFG, Tarzan, Independence Day, Warcraft, NYSM2, Central Intelligence, TMNT 6, Alice 2, and Angry Birds.

 

It's definitely leaning more towards good.

And yet is under CW, BvS, Deadpool, Dory, Zootopia, Pets, Jungle Book and will be under Suicide Squad, Rogue One for sure and probably Star Trek and possibly Bourne. 

So it most certainly fits the neither good nor bad category.