Wednesday Numbers: SS $4.1M (Guru)

[DAJK]

49 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

I can see the Friday increase going either way for SS. If it follows the mid-late august trend, 70+% increase easily. If guardians, slightly lower. You have to remember that we're playing with the largest August opening ever in a typically frontloaded genre with a rabid fanbase that is split on how much they liked the film; its not going to play by all the rules. SS is going to lose the majority of its IMAX screens and a number of 3D showings which may end up being the difference. I have it pegged at 60%, but it may very well go up more depending on how the new releases stack up this weekend.

Welcome to the Forums buddy  You're already on your way to becoming someone that a lot of us will love to have around here. Like Tele said, great first post!

[Brainiac5]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

Looks likes a repeat of last week, good/decent Mon-Tue, then worse than expected Wed (possibly followed by a worse than expected Thursday too)

 

Let's hope the weekend won't be the same as last weeken for the sake of mods' sanity. 

Even doe the second week drop was huge the number SS pulled in was great.

 

[kswiston]

29 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

I believe it's definitely doing more than 330 ,A little more than 350.

As for its domestic gross I don't think it's  stalling at 290.

After this weekend SS will be at 260+ I just don't see how it's not coming out of its 4th weekend with 280+.

 

If this weekend in on the poor side (say $18-19M), it could miss $280M by the end of the following week, with a 50-55% drop on the weekdays ($9-10M) and a $9M fourth weekend. But even in that pessimistic scenario, you have Labour Day the following weekend. At worst, the 4-day Labour Day drop is going to be 20% from the previous 3-Day weekend. 

 

So figure:

 

$241.5M going into the weekend and $259.5M as of Sunday (Aug 21st) with the terrible $18M weekend. 

$9M Mon-Thurs Next week and $9M during the Aug 26-28th weekend for a total of $277.5M

$4.5M in the following weekdays and a 4-day Labour day total of $7.2M (-20%)

 

That's $289M as of Labour Day being fairly pessimistic. The film won't just stop making money after that either.

 

Batman v Superman made $11M after its $5.5M fifth weekend. 

Edited August 18, 2016 by kswiston

[Gandalf the Off-White]

49 minutes ago, Nova said:

Ben Hur coming to fuck shit up for Suicide Squad by taking its IMAX screens and yet is projected to make $10M. 

Haha, yeah it has to bomb. I've barely even seen any marketing. However - even if it plays to empty IMAX theaters, it's still going to be taking a lot of those theaters from SS, right?

[Kathemy]

I'll post my first prediction here so don't trash me if I'm wildly off mark

 

Friday: ~8 million

[druv10]

35 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

I realize it's not jumping 90%.  I just meant that films are starting to have bigger jumps this time of year.  Hopefully it hits 75%.

GOTG had very similar jumps last weekend to SS, just slightly better holds.

 

If SS follows GOTG this weekend, we're looking at 20-21M perfectly reasonable hold and journey to 300M continues.

[Brainiac5]

28 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

If this weekend in on the poor side (say $18-19M), it could miss $280M by the end of the following week, with a 50-55% drop on the weekdays ($9-10M) and a $9M fourth weekend. But even in that pessimistic scenario, you have Labour Day the following weekend. At worst, the 4-day Labour Day drop is going to be 20% from the previous 3-Day weekend. 

 

So figure:

 

$241.5M going into the weekend and $259.5M as of Sunday (Aug 21st) with the terrible $18M weekend. 

$9M Mon-Thurs Next week and $9M during the Aug 26-28th weekend for a total of $277.5M

$4.5M in the following weekdays and a 4-day Labour day total of $7.2M (-20%)

 

That's $289M as of Labour Day being fairly pessimistic. The film won't just stop making money after that either.

 

Batman v Superman made $11M after its $5.5M fifth weekend. 

So your wrost case scenario is still a good scenario?

All I want is for the flim to do 300domestic anything over that is a plus.

Edited August 18, 2016 by Brainiac5

[Daxtreme]

27 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Yeah pretty much without China  a few movies numbers wouldn't look good at all.

Gotg numbers would still be good at $676mil(No China).SS doing 650 is close enough to be considered the same kind of success.

 

Without China TFA would have made... $1.94B  

 

For its budget, SS is performing really well. If only it had great critical reception, this movie could maybe have surpassed Guardians DOM and WW

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

So it's kinda following Rogue Nation.  It too fell huge on Wednesday.  It was down 35.8%.  It also jumped 90% on Friday.

 

Interesting.

 

Rogue Nation was more adult skewing.  SS like last Friday is more likely to be following GOTG's Friday jumps though maybe less this week because it's losing some IMAX and PLF screens to... Ben Hur.

 

 

Edited August 18, 2016 by TalismanRing

[miketheavenger]

I know this is kinda off-topic, but to add to the earlier discussion. I'm still absolutely baffled (in a good way) about Deadpool's performance. Doing nearly $800m WW with an R-Rating, without China and without 3D is absurd.

[Brainiac5]

5 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Without China TFA would have made... $1.94B  

 

For its budget, SS is performing really well. If only it had great critical reception, this movie could maybe have surpassed Guardians DOM and WW

Yeah but there's no reason to cry over spilled milk.As long as the flim is successful and crosses the 300domestic mark.

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

Last Mon-Thu SS beat BVS 45.3 vs 43.1 due to summer weekdays.

So far Mon-Wed has been,

BVS 3.2 + 4.1 + 2.8 = 10.1

SS 5.0 + 6.2 + 4.1 = 15.3 

 

BVS's 3rd weekend was 23.36 and SS won't be that far behind at ~20.

So Mon-Sun combined will go to SS. 

Fixed.

[narniadis]

49 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

If BVS had a summer release its drops would have been much better.

This is why CW multiplier was so low as well.

If those 2 movies had actual summer releases I believe CW would have gotten a 3x multiplier and BVS would have gotten A 2.4-2.6X multiplier.

Im Glad more and more people are starting to realizes about these release dates and how they can factor in a flims legs.

 

Dude lay off the condescension... I have been (as have most of us old timers) tracking Box Office for more than a decade. We KNOW what release dates do to films legs. We just normally don't have such a stark comparison as we do with BvS and SSQ.

 

That being said - normally the winter films would benefit from stronger weekends which makes up part of the difference in gross. Obviously that was not the case with BvS and frankly at most it probably would have added an additional 20-30m it still wouldn't have grossed 400m.

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

I know this is kinda off-topic, but to add to the earlier discussion. I'm still absolutely baffled (in a good way) about Deadpool's performance. Doing nearly $800m WW with an R-Rating, without China and without 3D is absurd.

 

Its the kind of oddities that we Box office aficionados live for!

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

I know this is kinda off-topic, but to add to the earlier discussion. I'm still absolutely baffled (in a good way) about Deadpool's performance. Doing nearly $800m WW with an R-Rating, without China and without 3D is absurd.

Whenever I see the numbers it did my mouth just drops because I take in all the factors that you mentioned and yea its absurd how much money it did....and on a lower budget too. I remember the weekend it opened I'd wake up everyday the estimates would keep going up my a good margin. 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Fixed.

Whopppsss 

Thank you

 

[kswiston]

13 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

So your wrist case scenario is still a good scenario?

All I want is for the flim to do 300domestic anything over that is a plus.

 

It's just really hard to get terrible legs in August. 

 

88 films have opened over $15M in August not counting Suicide Squad. Here is the list of films that have had worse legs than those required by Suicide Squad to get to $300M

 

Fantastic Four (2015)

Alien v Predator

The Last Exorcism

Halloween (2007)

Halloween 2 (2009)

The One Direction Film

 

Even Fantastic Four's legs gets Suicide Squad to $292M, and Suicide Squad isn't going to lose a third of its venues this weekend like F4 did. 

[Sam]

29 minutes ago, Kathemy said:

I'll post my first prediction here so don't trash me if I'm wildly off mark

 

Friday: ~8 million

 

8M will be closer to Sat number than Friday. 

 

Even if Thursday somehow only dropped down to 4M (it won't), 8M means a 100% Friday jump. 

 

So yeah, no trashing, but you are off mark 

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Its the kind of oddities that we Box office aficionados live for!

There have been a few nice ones lately to be honest. Hardly anyone/nobody saw Zootopia clearing 1BWW, American Sniper doing 350M DOM, Jurassic World beating TA's OW record, Furious 7 doing 1.5B WW, Frozen's domestic and overseas sensation, TFA doing nearly 1B DOM.

 

It's been a nice couple of years I'll say.

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

I know this is kinda off-topic, but to add to the earlier discussion. I'm still absolutely baffled (in a good way) about Deadpool's performance. Doing nearly $800m WW with an R-Rating, without China and without 3D is absurd.

Agree. Despite ZOOTP, TJB, SLOP doing amazing...DP still takes the cake for the most stellar BO performance for 2016 imo.

Edited August 18, 2016 by a2knet