Wednesday Numbers: SS $4.1M (Guru)

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

Ben Hur coming to fuck shit up for Suicide Squad by taking its IMAX screens and yet is projected to make $10M. 

Ben Hur isn't taking many IMAXs but it is taking a decent chunk of PLF.

[Fullbuster]

8 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

Don't forget SS won't have China to boost its numbers.

 

Civil War only made more than 1 billion worldwide, thanks to China's grosses ( 190 million ). X-Men Apocalypse made 539 million worldwide, but without China ( 121 million ), it would have made 438 million. SS overseas numbers are insanely good, because these numbers don't include China's numbers at all. 

 

GOTG made 96 million in China alone. So, overseas numbers for SS are really good. It it makes at least 330-350 million overseas, that's already a win. Deadpool is a good example, it managed to make 400 million overseas without China.

 

 

I don't say it's terrible or else but I expected more..I guess my expectations can be too high sometimes.

[baumer]

Well, @Rallax said SS is keeping all the Imax at his theater.  Ben Hur is going to be such a non factor (allegedly) that theaters might not take IMAX away from SS completely.

[a2k]

Last Mon-Thu SS beat BVS 45.3 vs 43.1 due to summer weekdays.

So far Mon-Wed has been,

BVS 3.2 + 4.1 + 2.8 = 10.1

SS 5.0 + 6.2 + 4.1 = 15.3 

 

BVS's 3rd weekend was 23.36 and SS won't be that far behind at ~20.

So Mon-Sun combined will go to SS. 

Edited August 18, 2016 by a2knet

[cannastop]

47 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

34% down?  Damn!

 

[Brainiac5]

20 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Let's say that it's doing well DOM but its OS numbers are more questionable......Doing less than 700m WW these days when you're a big Hollywood movie is a tad disappointing

It's really not giving the fact that the flim is missing the second largest market in the world.

If it had China and stopped at 600-650 then maybe a little disappointing but having a number north of 600 is good when you consider the flim could have done 700ww if it had China.

[Blaze Heatnix]

5 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

I don't say it's terrible or else but I expected more..I guess my expectations can be too high sometimes.

 

 

Well, SS overseas grosses haven't been updated since last Sunday. So, after this weekend, we might have a better idea about what to expect from possible final overseas numbers.

 

I still predict 330-350 million overseas. 

[druv10]

48 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

So it's kinda following Rogue Nation.  It too fell huge on Wednesday.  It was down 35.8%.  It also jumped 90% on Friday.

 

Interesting.

It's not jumping 90%. Hopefully 70-75% which would continue to keep it on track for 300M+.

[Plain Old Tele]

21 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

I can see the Friday increase going either way for SS. If it follows the mid-late august trend, 70+% increase easily. If guardians, slightly lower. You have to remember that we're playing with the largest August opening ever in a typically frontloaded genre with a rabid fanbase that is split on how much they liked the film; its not going to play by all the rules. SS is going to lose the majority of its IMAX screens and a number of 3D showings which may end up being the difference. I have it pegged at 60%, but it may very well go up more depending on how the new releases stack up this weekend.

 

Welcome! Good first post.  

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

It's not jumping 90%. Hopefully 70-75% which would continue to keep it on track for 300M+.

 

I realize it's not jumping 90%.  I just meant that films are starting to have bigger jumps this time of year.  Hopefully it hits 75%.

[kswiston]

6 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Many movies beyond $1B would still be beyond $1B without China so I'm not sure...And you can't be sure that Chinese would like a movie with such a style.

 

If you are comparing across years, you have to start considering exchange rates as well. A number of those $1B+ films from 2012-2013 fall under $1B if you were using the current rates.

 

Iron Man 3 would have lost something close to $20M a piece from Russia and Mexico using spring 2016 exchange rates instead of spring 2013 rates. You would probably get a similar result for Brazil's gross. That's basically the difference between it and Civil War worldwide (granted Civil War did get a $70M bump in China). 

[filmlover]

24 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

I can see the Friday increase going either way for SS. If it follows the mid-late august trend, 70+% increase easily. If guardians, slightly lower. You have to remember that we're playing with the largest August opening ever in a typically frontloaded genre with a rabid fanbase that is split on how much they liked the film; its not going to play by all the rules. SS is going to lose the majority of its IMAX screens and a number of 3D showings which may end up being the difference. I have it pegged at 60%, but it may very well go up more depending on how the new releases stack up this weekend.

I already love you just for your name alone.

[Brainiac5]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

Well, SS overseas grosses haven't been updated since last Sunday. So, after this weekend, we might have a better idea about what to expect from possible final overseas numbers.

 

I still predict 330-350 million overseas. 

I believe it's definitely doing more than 330 ,A little more than 350.

As for its domestic gross I don't think it's  stalling at 290.

After this weekend SS will be at 260+ I just don't see how it's not coming out of its 4th weekend with 280+.

[narniadis]

the number is neither good nor bad - the bigger the Tuesday the larger the Wednesday tis been the pattern all year. The Friday increase is what will be telling (as Baumer has said all along, the 3rd weekend really is the telling point.)

 

Also SSQ is a case study in how Summer weekdays can prop up a film that would have crashed and burned in another season - makes me wonder what BvS would have done in the Summer instead of March.

[Gopher]

This month is a parallel to that Jurassic World / Inside Out month in that I'm only here now for the Sausage Party numbers

[Brainiac5]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

the number is neither good nor bad - the bigger the Tuesday the larger the Wednesday tis been the pattern all year. The Friday increase is what will be telling (as Baumer has said all along, the 3rd weekend really is the telling point.)

 

Also SSQ is a case study in how Summer weekdays can prop up a film that would have crashed and burned in another season - makes me wonder what BvS would have done in the Summer instead of March.

If BVS had a summer release its drops would have been much better.

This is why CW multiplier was so low as well.

If those 2 movies had actual summer releases I believe CW would have gotten a 3x multiplier and BVS would have gotten A 2.4-2.6X multiplier.

Im Glad more and more people are starting to realizes about these release dates and how they can factor in a flims legs.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Captain America The Winter Soldier- Made 713 million worldwide. It made 115 million in China alone. You take that away, and the movie would have made less than 600 million worldwide.

 

Ant-Man made 105 million in China alone ( 519 million worldwide ). Without China, Ant-Man would have made 404 million worldwide.

 

There are several movies that got huge numbers thanks to China's grosses. SS numbers are really good. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I already love you just for your name alone.

Much appreciated, I'm normally a lurker, but I feel like I can add something here and there so I stopped being lazy. This also happens to be my username over at Fantasy Movie League, pretty much the only clever thing I could come up with

[Sam]

Looks likes a repeat of last week, good/decent Mon-Tue, then worse than expected Wed (possibly followed by a worse than expected Thursday too)

 

Let's hope the weekend won't be the same as last weeken for the sake of mods' sanity. 

[Brainiac5]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Captain America The Winter Soldier- Made 713 million worldwide. It made 115 million in China alone. You take that away, and the movie would have made less than 600 million worldwide.

 

Ant-Man made 105 million in China alone ( 519 million worldwide ). Without China, Ant-Man would have made 404 million worldwide.

 

There are several movies that got huge numbers thanks to China's grosses. SS numbers are really good. 

Yeah pretty much without China  a few movies numbers wouldn't look good at all.

Gotg numbers would still be good at $676mil(No China).SS doing 650 is close enough to be considered the same kind of success.