WEEKEND THREAD | Official Estimates: Madea - 27.6M; JR 2 - 23M; Ouija 2 - 14M; Accountant - 14m; Joneses - 5.6M

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Tom Cruise is struggling to open over an outdated Madea flick.

 

How the mighty have fallen.

It's actually doing better than I thought it would given the lackluster reviews and being a sequel to a movie from almost 4 years ago that was hardly beloved or a big financial hit in the first place.

[Jonwo]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's actually doing better than I thought it would given the lackluster reviews and being a sequel to a movie from almost 4 years ago that was hardly beloved or a big financial hit in the first place.

 

Not to mention the OW is better than the first although it won't have the same legs because it's October rather than Christmas. If Cruise wasn't in it, it wouldn't do nearly as well 

[MrPink]

Reacher is doing fine honestly. Will do 60 million at least which is not too severe of a drop off from the first given what we have seen this year 

Edited October 22, 2016 by MrPink

[Arlborn]

Surprised by Reacher actually. Last few days were very negative for it around here so I was expecting sub-20m. It's solid.

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, this start is rather otherworldly? Pretty sure it's the biggest platform launch for a movie this entire year so far, and by a very wide margin.

 

Who would have thought that the two biggest PTAs of the year as of late October would belong to Moonlight and Don't Think Twice. 

 

With this start I'd say a $15m total would be the floor for Moonlight even without the awards hype. If it gets a BP nom I don't see how it doesn't pass Ex Machina to become A24's biggest grosser.

[POTUS 2020]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Tom Cruise is struggling to open over an outdated Madea flick.

 

How the mighty have fallen.

at 35 years in the biz, most are long past outdated. 

don't forget the legs will prevail and the OS will be double that.

still mighty along with Hanks

 

[filmlover]

A24 is quickly establishing themselves as the upstart studio that's here to stay, especially with their Oscar glory (three movies nominated and each taking home one award) last year and now this. Moonlight should be good for a $20M total at a minimum now.

[Napoleon]

Queen Madea slaying

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's actually doing better than I thought it would given the lackluster reviews and being a sequel to a movie from almost 4 years ago that was hardly beloved or a big financial hit in the first place.

 

 

 

Maybe FX playing Jack Reacher about every day this year helped it 

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Queen Madea slaying

"Help me Jesus!"

[babz06]

1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

Who would have thought that the two biggest PTAs of the year as of late October would belong to Moonlight and Don't Think Twice. 

 

With this start I'd say a $15m total would be the floor for Moonlight even without the awards hype. If it gets a BP nom I don't see how it doesn't pass Ex Machina to become A24's biggest grosser.

These specialty releases are so unpredictable. It seems like it's performing great with arthouse crowds but who knows how much it will appeal to GA. I'd wait until it expands a bit more before making wild predictions like that. 

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

Fences is going to get some nominations too.

 

 

 

Fences actually has a ton of potential box office wise, especially if it's good. Cause, ya know, Denzel. You even get Denzel squared here, since he's starring and directing. If it comes out swinging as a great film, it could explode in the BO and provide us w/the REAL Birth Of A Nation-type frontrunner.

 

But yeah, Moonlight could very well be headed for 100K PTA, which would be amazing.

[Jake Gittes]

39 minutes ago, babz06 said:

These specialty releases are so unpredictable. It seems like it's performing great with arthouse crowds but who knows how much it will appeal to GA. I'd wait until it expands a bit more before making wild predictions like that. 

 

I don't think it's wild. The Tree of Life and Inside Llewyn Davis, two movies with very little GA appeal, started off with the same numbers and both got to $13m even though one came out in the summer and the other was almost ignored by the Academy. I don't think it'll be hard for Moonlight to do better, especially if it gets a BP nom.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Fences actually has a ton of potential box office wise, especially if it's good. Cause, ya know, Denzel. You even get Denzel squared here, since he's starring and directing. If it comes out swinging as a great film, it could explode in the BO and provide us w/the REAL Birth Of A Nation-type frontrunner.

 

But yeah, Moonlight could very well be headed for 100K PTA, which would be amazing.

Fences will hit 100M IMO

[MCKillswitch123]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fences will hit 100M IMO

 

It wouldn't shock me, honestly. Less than stellar films like The Equalizer and Flight all came very much within that area. And knowing that Denzel directing has a pretty good legacy behind (both Antwone Fisher and The Great Debaters, his previous directorial efforts, were very well critically recieved), it does have 100M potential, for sure.

 

I'm seeing that as one of the very few Best Picture contenders to have a serious shot at 100M this year, alongside Arrival, and, even though I find it very unlikely it'll make that much, La La Land. Passengers too, if it actually gets Best Picture buzz.

Edited October 22, 2016 by MCKillswitch123

[John Marston]

just realized Tom Cruise's openings for non sequels have always been about 20-30m since Vanilla Sky in 2001 with the big exception of War of the Worlds

Edited October 22, 2016 by John Marston

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

It wouldn't shock me, honestly. Less than stellar films like The Equalizer and Flight all came very much within that area. And knowing that Denzel directing has a pretty good legacy behind (both Antwone Fisher and The Great Debaters, his previous directorial efforts, were very well critically recieved), it does have 100M potential, for sure.

 

I'm seeing that as one of the very few Best Picture contenders to have a serious shot at 100M this year, alongside Arrival, and, even though I find it very unlikely it'll make that much, La La Land. Passengers too, if it actually gets Best Picture buzz.

I think La La Land is blowing past $100M with ease. It's shaping up to be the extreme Best Picture frontrunner, with Silence being the only thing that could spoil it.

[filmlover]

Where has @CJohn been all day? Been waiting for his "lol Lionsgate you're a flop!" posts over Moonlight doing 3x as much as American Pastoral in 4 theaters compared to the latter's 50.

[dxmatrixdt]

I was hoping for 30M for Jack Reacher since it was announced, but 25 is still good and on par with Girl on a Train and The Accountant.  In my observational opinion, the first Jack Reacher has been killing it on television.  It is on all the time and people are glued to watching it.   It must be doing well on television.  I would expect a good bump today and decent legs to give it a 75M total.  I am not sure worldwide will expand too much though….   I am noticing the rotten tomato audience score is still looking for an identity between 55 and 52.  However the B+ cinemascore is promising.  I saw it opening night and it seemed like a crowd pleaser and got a good response.   

 

What the hell was up with all those comments about Madea Halloween being another dud for Lionsgate after deadline posted an 8M opening day??  A Madea Halloween is going to bail out Lionsgate until the next Saw.  It should finish with about 70M, right below Jack Reacher.

 

I saw Ouija opening day too and it seemed to be more of a crowdpleaser than Jack Reacher.  I am aware that horror movies get dull grades on cinemascore, but this one just did not make sense.    Conjuring 2 got an A- and the presentation of the film was more open to showing things.  The same formula was applied for Ouija 2.  It was a period piece and it showed more, was straightforward, and was ultimately less frustrating with plot turns.  The presentation was satisfactory.  Oculus received a C.  1408 received a B-.  Conjuring 2 got an A-, Lights Out with a B, The Forest with a C, Woman in Black 2 – C, Carrie B-, and Insidious 1-3 with B’s or B+’s.  I think the sample was tainted.    It should finish with 40M.

 

The Accountant’s holds are no surprise.  The rotten tomato audience score is at 86% and seems steady there.  This could be up for some People’s Choice Awards.  Expect it to finish close to The Town, at 90M

 

The Girl on a Train had limited competition this weekend, and should hold until the week after Thanksgiving.  75M total.

 

Keeping Up With the Joneses – studios confuse me sometimes.  Why did they do this??  Release these in the spring!!!  15-20M total

 

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – Should be near 75 at the end of this weekend.   86.61 million is a 3x multiplier.  Late legs to late, 90M total.  Tim Burton is frontloaded!!!

 

Kevin Hart – should rebound a bit on Saturday’s.  Madea opening the week after killed its legs.  It will finish under 30M.

 

Deepwater Horizon has an 87 on rotten tomato audience score, The Accountant is at 86, Sully at 88.  It will not pass 65M.

 

Storks big test will be when Trolls comes out.   75M total.

 

Magnificent Seven.  95M total.

 

Middle School.  20M total. 

 

Sully should find itself some re-releases.  4x opening weekend = 140M total.

 

 

[MrPink]

Jack Reacher was meh. Zwick