Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[grey ghost]

Looks like FB hurt Dr Strange.

 

Then again Strange had a normal drop for a superhero blockbuster.

 

Next week should be interesting.

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

no cinemascore for Billy Lynn

[dxmatrixdt]

misery awaits!

[MovieMan89]

Lol if both Strange and FB end up continuing 2016's no 200-300m curse. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol if both Strange and FB end up continuing 2016's no 200-300m curse. 

 

Not happening with DS. TDW did $206m and DS is already $10m ahead as of Thur and should be at least $13m ahead after this w/e.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Not happening with DS. TDW did $206m and DS is already $10m ahead as of Thur and should be at least $13m ahead after this w/e.

I know, but the curse is almost real since DS will probably just barely beat Thor 2. Not convinced FB has 200 in the tank with that OW. 

Edited November 19, 2016 by MovieMan89

[TalismanRing]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I know, but the curse is almost real since DS will probably just barely beat Thor 2. 

 

Barely by $15-20m or so?

[chrisman0606]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Not happening with DS. TDW did $206m and DS is already $10m ahead as of Thur and should be at least $13m ahead after this w/e.

It seems since FB has a lower opening weekend number than HG CF in 2013, that the impact will not be huge on DS like TTDW had and that it's 3rd weekend should be bigger than TTDW 14 million take.

[Mojoguy]

Lol if both Strange and FB end up continuing 2016's no 200-300m curse.

Moana should break that curse...

[keysersoze123]

DS should comfortably go over 200m. But FB will stop at 180m. Moana should do 200m+ as well.

[keysersoze123]

FB has already shown signs of frontloadedness. Its presales were stronger than Strange but will have weaker OW. Plus its multi wont be as good as Strange either OW or overall.

[YSLDC]

In their last update, Deadline is saying that Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix cost 550m to make and market? What?..

[grim22]

Deadline haven't put up numbers yet, but their analysis article is hilarious. Especially this part

 

Quote

But we can’t deny the fact that the Burbank-based studio has a history of exchanging uber-high production costs for slim-to-zero profit margins. Look no farther than the classic expense sheet case published by Deadline in July 2010 showing that 2007’s Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, despite opening to $77.1M stateside, and minting $292M domestic and $939.9M worldwide, actually lost money after all ancillaries to the tune of -$167M off a $373.5M production cost and $191.9M P&A

1

 

They are making it sound like OOTP actually lost money, where as if you click through to the article, it shows that Deadline itself was very harsh on WB for creative accounting to show that it lost money through impairment and distribution charges and interest fees being tacked on. It's like they don't even read their own articles. There is a difference between showing that you lost money vs actually losing money on a movie.

[elcaballero]

2 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

In their last update, Deadline is saying that Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix cost 550m to make and market? What?..

Hollywood accounting at its finest.

[Noctis]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FB has already shown signs of frontloadedness. Its presales were stronger than Strange but will have weaker OW. Plus its multi wont be as good as Strange either OW or overall.

 

You can't say that until we see Saturday's number. 

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

In their last update, Deadline is saying that Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix cost 550m to make and market? What?..

 

Pay TV networks they own, like TBS, TNT, CW etc. ridiculous amounts of money for an ad slot at strange times, pay themselves a distribution fee, pay the shell companies set up to make the movie interest costs and it all adds up. Hollywood accounting exists to pretty much ensure that no movie ever makes a profit so that net participation is never ever paid out.

[MovieMan89]

Wasn't OotP the film we found out a few years ago that WB took a huge write off on? 

[Jonwo]

If Sony were able to drag Spectre to $200m then I think Fantastic Beasts might be able as well with a $70-75m OW

[James]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FB has already shown signs of frontloadedness. Its presales were stronger than Strange but will have weaker OW. Plus its multi wont be as good as Strange either OW or overall.

Yeah, and you know that how? And of course the presales were stronger. This is a HP spin-off ffs.

Also, if you take a look at the midnight/OD ratio, it is exactly the same: 29%. I really don't get why people don't see that or take it into account.

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wasn't OotP the film we found out a few years ago that WB took a huge write off on? 

 

Yup, the explanation is hard to grasp even when laid out clearly

 

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100708/02510310122.shtml

 

Quote

In that statement, you'll notice the "distribution fee" of $212 million dollars. That's basically Warner Bros. paying itself to make sure the movie "loses money." There are some other fun tidbits in there as well. The $130 million in "advertising and publicity"? Again, much of that is actually Warner Bros. paying itself (or paying its own "properties"). $57 million in "interest"? Also to itself for "financing" the film. Even if we assume that only half of the "advertising and publicity" money is Warner Bros. paying itself, we're still talking about $350 million that Warner Bros. shifts around, which gets taken out of the "bottom line" in the movie accounting.