Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[La Binoche]

10 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Only a very few titles have the actuals reported it seem
The-Numbers changes the estimates' font in green colour to actuals with a black colour font. Sadly I loose the green colour in their charts whilst transferring it into BOT
Actuals Wednesday November 23rd, 2016
The Edge of Seventeen	STX Entertainment	$726,627	-4%	1,945	$374	$6,783,770
Bleed for This	Open Road	$212,219	-24%	1,549	$137	$3,109,829
Manchester-by-the Sea	Roadside Attractions	$41,532	38%	4	$10,383	$360,042
Priceless	Roadside Attractions	$163	-23%	4	$41	$1,495,766
Actuals Thursday November 24th, 2016
Bleed for This	Open Road	$193,875	-9%	1,549	$125	$3,303,704
Manchester-by-the Sea	Roadside Attractions	$41,597	n/c	4	$10,399	$401,639
Priceless	Roadside Attractions	$280	72%	4	$70	$1,496,046

 

Thanks. Manchester is slaying. 

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, chrisman0606 said:

@terrestrial So Smaller studios do actuals for Wed and Thurs and not Major studios?

Sadly only a few. Some of the others seem not to report during the week at all or very late. Even at the weekend actuals I've seen repeatedly the charts getting adjusted 1/2 day later for some stragglers.

 

[chrisman0606]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Sadly only a few. Some of the others seem not to report during the week at all or very late. Even at the weekend actuals I've seen repeatedly the charts getting adjusted 1/2 day later for some stragglers.

 

What I meant was that during the five day thanksgiving weekend, that these smaller studios do actuals for Wed and Thurs during the holiday and not major studios, I am aware of what you said but just wanted to point it out.

Edited November 25, 2016 by chrisman0606

[CoolioD1]

It'll be awhile before i can see manchester but i very much look forward to it. great to finally see a kenny lonergan film get this kind of awards buzz. was due to happen sooner or later dude is one of the genius writers of our time. film historians are gonna look back on you can count on me and margaret and say "wtf how were people back then sleeping on this?"

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

It'll be awhile before i can see manchester but i very much look forward to it. great to finally see a kenny lonergan film get this kind of awards buzz. was due to happen sooner or later dude is one of the genius writers of our time. film historians are gonna look back on you can count on me and margaret and say "wtf how were people back then sleeping on this?"

The writer of The Adventures of Rocky & Bullwinkle will get his due.

[grey ghost]

37 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

But it's not a Harry Potter movie in any shape or form. 

 

 

Aren't they a shared universe? 

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

The writer of The Adventures of Rocky & Bullwinkle will get his due.

i would say he at least deserves more respect than the overrated writer of Jurassic Park III. that dude's last four movies have felt like pilots for showtime dramadies that no one really cares about but somehow last 8 seasons.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

i would say he at least deserves more respect than the overrated writer of Jurassic Park III. that dude's last four movies have felt like pilots for showtime dramadies that no one really cares about but somehow last 8 seasons.

Although you'd have to admit they both have a lot more respect than the writer of Stuart Little.

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Aren't they a shared universe? 

 

You shut your whore mouth, grey ghost. Shut it!

[Ethan Hunt]

Manchester looks super good. Hope it reaches my theatre soon

[La Binoche]

11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

It'll be awhile before i can see manchester but i very much look forward to it. great to finally see a kenny lonergan film get this kind of awards buzz. was due to happen sooner or later dude is one of the genius writers of our time. film historians are gonna look back on you can count on me and margaret and say "wtf how were people back then sleeping on this?"

 

True but You Cant Count On Me wasn't exactly slept on. It got massive critical acclaim when released and earned Laura Linney an Oscar nom. 

Edited November 25, 2016 by La Binoche

[CoolioD1]

Just now, La Binoche said:

 

True but You Cant Count On Me wasn't exactly slept on. It got massive critical acclaim when released and earned Laura Linney on Oscar nom. 

she didn't win = slept on af.

[WrathOfHan]

It'd be wise of Roaside to get Manchester in 1k+ theaters before Rogue One. I know they said they're capping out at 900, but they need to aim higher with how well it's doing limited.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

You shut your whore mouth, grey ghost. Shut it!

 

 

They should've called it The Fantastic Harry Potter and Where to Find Him. 

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Jason]

Even if you take into account that Fantastic Beasts is part of the Harry Potter universe, the data from the opening weekend alone suggests that a sub-2.5x multiplier is too low.

 

The following graph shows the multiplier vs. the OW/OD ratio (internal multiplier, I think it's called?) for the Friday-release Harry Potter films only and for a broader set of winter releases*.

 

The broader set of winter releases has a pretty weak correlation (although still statistically significant), which is unsurprising given that it shows most $50M OW releases from September to April, including those being released on holiday weekends. Without doing any detailed statistical analysis, or further breaking down the winter release subset into groups, my guess is that Harry Potter films don't significantly differ from most other films in their relationship between the OW/OD ratio - in other words, their low multipliers can be predicted from the OW/OD ratio alone. This can be observed visually by the large number of other films clustering around the Harry Potter films.

 

Nevertheless, the narrow subset of Harry Potter films (two of which are summer releases) does have the advantage of showing a pretty strong correlation between their multiplier and OW/OD ratio (which is probably because it filters for other factors not related to Harry Potter). Using that relationship, we can predict Fantastic Beasts (OW/OD=2.5) to have a final multiplier of 2.8. Anything lower than 2.5 would be well outside of the typical relationship for Harry Potter films.

 

*Note: I borrowed the winter release dataset from another sheet I already had for something else, it's filtered for at least $50M opening weekends and a number of criteria of no relevance to this particular graph. Also, I don't know that summer releases have a different relationship, this was just for my convenience.

Edited November 25, 2016 by Jason

[DAR]

At some pont I'll watch Manchester but given it's subject matter it's not exactly something I'll be pumped up to see.

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, DAR said:

At some pont I'll watch Manchester but given it's subject matter it's not exactly something I'll be pumped up to see.

 

It'll be something I catch on digital before the Oscars.

[TalismanRing]

21 minutes ago, DAR said:

At some pont I'll watch Manchester but given it's subject matter it's not exactly something I'll be pumped up to see.

 

It doesn't appeal to me much but If I feel the urge I'll just pop in Ordinary People

 

 

[James]

26 minutes ago, DAR said:

At some pont I'll watch Manchester but given it's subject matter it's not exactly something I'll be pumped up to see.

As weird as it may sound, having watched the trailer now it looks incredibly good to me. Will catch it if it opens here. If now, when it goes on Bluray. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

44 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Aren't they a shared universe? 

Lots of name dropping to reference characters, phrases and locations in Potter. Apparate more in this than all the Potter flicks combined.