Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[Durden]

How much DS can make this weekend with 5.5m friday ?

[Gopher]

Moana's mirroring Tangled adjusted numbers now, which if it followed from here would put its final tally around 220m. Only disappointing because its closest relatives at Disney, Zootopia and Frozen, were such overperforming monsters. Hopefully word of mouth does it similar favors, but I'm weary of it competing against Illumination's own musical over the holidays. 

 

I'm wondering if families are discovering Fantastic Beasts now after avoiding it last weekend? It's going to have a remarkable hold compared to other Potters. 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Gopher

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Durden said:

How much DS can make this weekend with 5.5m friday ?

 

It had the same Thursday to Friday jump as TDW did, if it follows it the rest of the weekend, it gets around a 13.6M weekend.

[Kraken]

33 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

.

RTH's post - wow, just in time to look into BOT

 

For me it is day 13 I am bedridden - since I broke my ankle I try since yesterday to put ~ 10% weight on it in during the short times I am allwed to leave the bed. Now a bit more than till ~ Friday - I feel with you about the boredom

 

Deadline Hollywood ‏@Deadline 

2016 Domestic B.O. Hits $10B At Record Pace; Will We See A New $11B+ Record If ‘Rogue One’ Falls Short Of ‘Force… http://deadline.com/2016/11/2016-domestic-box-office-10-billion-record-time-rogue-one-moana-fantastic-beasts-1201860074?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter …

 

Fidel Castro died

 

 

33 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

Fidel Castro died

 

60 years too late. 

[Dingdong123]

6 minutes ago, Gopher said:

Moana's mirroring Tangled adjusted numbers now, which if it followed from here would put its final tally around 220m. Only disappointing because its closest relatives at Disney, Zootopia and Frozen, were such overperforming monsters. Hopefully word of mouth does it similar favors, but I'm weary of it competing against Illumination's own musical over the holidays. 

 

I'm wondering if families are discovering Fantastic Beasts now after avoiding it last weekend? It's going to have a remarkable hold compared to other Potters. 

 

Yup, with Sing coming, I don't think it'll achieve the extraordinary legs of Zootopia and Frozen. 260M seems like the good target at the moment. Damn I expected so much more.

[terrestrial]

56 minutes ago, grim22 said:

It had the same Thursday to Friday jump as TDW did, if it follows it the rest of the weekend, it gets around a 13.6M weekend.

added up with the estimates the 5-day ~ $1m less than e.g. BO.com predicted, but ~ $1m than BOM thought

Edited November 26, 2016 by terrestrial

[Noctis]

I'm so happy for Fantastic Beasts. It deserves it! <3

[Mojoguy]

Maybe Disney was just too low key with Moana marketing? They should have done a blitzing strategy, instead of focusing so much on DS and R1.

Also Deadline said 64% of the audience on OD was female and they tend to not rush out on opening weekend to see a movie outside of the Twilight series. Also families take their time to see animated movies. So all that adds up to a lower OW.

http://deadline.com/2016/11/moana-fantastic-beasts-tuesday-box-office-thanksgiving-1201859220/

[BadAtGender]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Anecdotal evidence alert. I was at Walmart earlier today and the toy aisle and frankly most aisles that have anything to do with kids were overflowing with Frozen merchandise, didn't see anything related to Moana. Frozen (specifically Elsa) is a merchandising juggernaut for sure, but normally you do see some items related to the current movie as well.

 

Possibly. Last year it seemed that at least part of the reason TGD didn't do as well as expected was it was completely overshadowed by TFA, as if Disney wasn't able to focus on two tentpoles at the same time. I wonder if there's a bit of that going on here, although not to the same degree. Star Wars is Disney's prime franchise, and Rogue One is kinda an important sell because of it's spinoff status. So is it possibly sucking up some of the push that could have been given to Moana. (Frozen, we'll remember, didn't have a Disney tentpole to contend with a month later.)

 

1 minute ago, Gopher said:

Moana's mirroring Tangled adjusted numbers now, which if it followed from here would put its final tally around 220m. Only disappointing because its closest relatives at Disney, Zootopia and Frozen, were such overperforming monsters. Hopefully word of mouth does it similar favors, but I'm weary of it competing against Illumination's own musical over the holidays. 

 

Huh. I had thought that Tangled had sub-par late legs, but just glancing at the weekend drops, it seemed to hold up okay.

 

What's actually going to be interesting now is how Moana will compare to BH6, which also had a mid-50s OW and finished in the 220m range. At the time, I criticized Disney's release, because it seemed like Thanksgiving was a much better release date than early November. (IIRC, my estimate was that they left at least 20m on the table, and possibly a lot more.) If Moana, with a better reception, isn't able to do better, perhaps it doesn't particularly matter?

[Mojoguy]

I saw a Dr Stange commercial on TV on Thanksgiving day, even though that movie came out like 3 weeks ago. Shouldn't Disney have been pushing Moana HARD instead?

Why are they still showing DS commercials so late?

Edited November 26, 2016 by Mojoguy

[keysersoze123]

its too much to expect every film to make 300m. This is still great for Moana. its not a sequel or property based on known character.

[picores]

Moana's numbers are good enough to not be considered a disappointment. Frozen set the bar sky high, yeah, doesnt mean Moana or Tangled or whatever animated movie which makes 200+m are turds.

[MovieMan89]

WHAT IS THAT MOANA NUMBER??? Omfg, if WOM is not amazing I swear..

[James]

That number for FB is just beautiful!! And combined with the great international holds I'd say 750m at least is locked. 800m in play.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Frozen, we'll remember, didn't have a Disney tentpole to contend with a month later.

 

 

Looked at the 2013 holiday releases, and that is one sucky lineup the studios put out. The pre-Christmas to Christmas releases were Hobbit 2, Anchorman 2, Wolf of Wall Street, Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, Grudge Match and Walking With Dinosaurs. And I watched 6 of those movies in the theater (including 3 in a single day because I literally had nothing better to do). The big expansion was American Hustle.

 

At least with Office Christmas Party, Rogue One, Passengers, Sing, Assassins Creed, Why Him? and Fences, the lineup has much more potential. The big expansion play is La La Land obviously.

[eXtacy]

So for the holdovers

 

43m for Beasts

13.5m for DS

11m for Arrival

[dxmatrixdt]

always the possibility that Moana can be a bit higher

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

So for the holdovers

 

43m for Beasts

13.5m for DS

11m for Arrival

 

With an $18.2m Friday, and at least a $16.5m Saturday, how on earth are you expecting it do just $43m?

[James]

2 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

So for the holdovers

 

43m for Beasts

13.5m for DS

11m for Arrival

I think Beasts is hitting 45m.

[yjs]

I now am legitimately terrified of this possibility of giving that dude satisfaction of calling it right for FB>Moana total.