Morieris Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I didn't think Sully was on the awards track for anything but Hanks' performance. Guess I was wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Jackie is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 (edited) Some statistics from AwardsWatch: http://awardswatch.com/forums/showthread.php?42022-2016-AFI-Top-10-List-Announced&p=2803398&viewfull=1#post2803398 A total of 43 movies have made all three of AFI, NFCA, and NBR since the expansion, and only five missed a BP nomination: Nightcrawler, Unbroken, Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr Banks, and The Town. These are the seven movies that have made all three this year: Arrival Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Sully If Hacksaw gets in at PGA which is solely the industry and has no critics, it's getting into BP. 29 minutes ago, filmlover said: Jackie is done. I'd wait until PGA before calling it quits. But yeah, it's not looking good. Edit: It also wasn't eligible for AFI http://www.goldderby.com/article/2016/afi-top-10-films-2016-oscar/ Edited December 8, 2016 by WrathOfHan 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 (edited) I think other than Sully, every film on that list is probably safe, Sully might be getting nominated too. Assuming That they nominate 8 That list + Silence? List+ Fences? List + Jackie? List + Loving or Lion or Hidden figures or 20 century women? (probably less likely) Edited December 9, 2016 by NCsoft 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCsoft said: I think other than Sully, everything film on that list is probably safe, Sully might be getting nominated too. Assuming That they nominate 8 That list + Silence? List+ Fences? List + Jackie? List + Loving or Lion or Hidden figures or 20 century women? (probably less likely) That's the most probable scenario if all 7 of those get nominated. Hacksaw needs PGA though. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: That's the most probable scenario if all 7 of those get nominated. Hacksaw needs PGA though. I Hope Hacksaw gets it! Looks like out of all African American themed movies this year, moonlight is likely the only real safe one. A lot of people were predicting 3 earlier (Moonlight, Fences, Loving), I knew that was probably not realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Hell or High Water is looking close to the top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 minutes ago, filmlover said: Hell or High Water is looking close to the top 5. Some are saying Mackenzie could take Villeneuve's spot in Director. I don't see that happening, but he's probably sixth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 (edited) 9 hours ago, NCsoft said: I think other than Sully, every film on that list is probably safe, Sully might be getting nominated too. Assuming That they nominate 8 That list + Silence? List+ Fences? List + Jackie? List + Loving or Lion or Hidden figures or 20 century women? (probably less likely) I would say that they will nominate 9 films. 6 of these 7 (Sully or HR can be shut out + Fences + Silence + another one (Hidden Figures?) Silence and Fences were in 2/3 of AFI/NBR/BFCA combo. And Silence wasn't eligible for BFCA. Hidden Figures has still to open. It will be hot just when AMPAS have to vote. It has NBR and an ensemble nom at BFCA. We know that acting branch is really important with AMPAS, so I am rooting for it. Edited December 9, 2016 by stripe 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 hours ago, NCsoft said: I Hope Hacksaw gets it! Looks like out of all African American themed movies this year, moonlight is likely the only real safe one. A lot of people were predicting 3 earlier (Moonlight, Fences, Loving), I knew that was probably not realistic. We don't know by how much, but diversity is what Academy is looking for this year. Remember this is the first year with sensible changes in Academy members. We are judging the precursors with previous editions in mind, but we really don't know how the changes will affect to Oscar nominees. Anyways, Moonlight and Fences look like solid contenders. And then there are still four movies dealing with diversity that might still be nommed: Silence, Loving, Lion, Hidden Figures. Whatever happens in BP, Oscars will nominate an African American for BD, and there will be at least 4 not so white acting nominations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Some are saying Mackenzie could take Villeneuve's spot in Director. I don't see that happening, but he's probably sixth. He deserves it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I can see it. There's always a consensus 5 that pops up in that category and one always misses out for the oscars. If it's chazelle/villeneuve/Jenkins/lonergan/Scorsese then villeneuve is clearly weakest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 BD is one of the most unpredictable categories. Besides Chazelle, I can see an scenario with any combo that includes Villeneuve, Jenkins, Lonergan, Scorsese, Mackenzie, Washington or Eastwood. Even Gibson cannot be discarded. Obviously early precursors are supporting Lonergan and Jenkins. And Mackenzie's chances are increasing. But, guilds and globes will be the real test. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 lol Gibson getting nominated would be a fitting final twist to 2016. A good year for assholes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I suspect HR will play better with AMPAS than with critics. And BFCA already nommed Gibson... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I can definitely see the golden globes nominating gibson too. they love inviting him much to the discomfort of everyone else. SAG won't have seen Silence yet so Garfield might get nominated for Ridge there. Honestly it's a toss-up which one gets him an oscar nod, if he gets one at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 (edited) I really liked Hacksaw, but I don't want (or think) Gibson will get nominated. Edited December 9, 2016 by ThePanda A Star Wars Story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 http://bofca.com/2016-bofca-awards/ Boston Online Film Critics Association BEST PICTURE: MOONLIGHT BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle – LA LA LAND etc. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 42 minutes ago, cannastop said: http://bofca.com/2016-bofca-awards/ Boston Online Film Critics Association BEST PICTURE: MOONLIGHT BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle – LA LA LAND etc. Great showing for Manchester and Moonlight. THE TEN BEST FILMS OF THE YEAR: MOONLIGHT MANCHESTER BY THE SEA LA LA LAND PATERSON HELL OR HIGH WATERGREEN ROOM SILENCE CERTAIN WOMEN THE HANDMAIDEN ELLE Well that's an interesting, nifty pick there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I wonder how far Green Room can get with no campaigning from A24. It probably won't climb all the way up, but I think it might have jumped a few pegs higher amidst all the other 'no-chance' films. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
