ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[Daxtreme]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Simply not true. I've said this before, but 90% of the reason for the big multipliers in December is because movies released in December underperform in their opening weekends (due to proximity to Christmas/weather). There's plenty of evidence from franchise sequels that open in December that show this effect. TFA was immune, and the only reason it got a huge multiplier was because of the amazing WOM. Judging by the size of Rogue One's opening, it also looks to be mostly immune from this effect, so 90% of the reason for huge multipliers in December won't exist for Rogue One.

 

So, the only movies that should suffer from this are the Christmas movies, but the only big enough movies that ever opened in December are 2 Star Wars movies, but they're... immune anyway?

 

So what you're saying is, basically it should hit a phantom movie at some point in a very long future. No other event movie (other than Star Wars) is opening in December for a long while buddy.

 

After the next 3 December Star Wars movies are "immune" to this "effect", I think we'll be able to say that after 5 out of 5 movies being immune to this "effect"...

 

this "effect" doesn't exist.

[Eevin]

1 hour ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Welcome to a BOT mega-opener weekend thread.  We're just getting started. 

I mean, I've witnessed many weekend threads here (that Jungle Book one was fun),  but I've never participated in one to this scale.

[hw64]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

So, the only movies that should suffer from this are the Christmas movies, but the only big enough movies that ever opened in December are 2 Star Wars movies, but they're... immune anyway?

 

So what you're saying is, basically it should hit a phantom movie at some point in a very long future. No other event movie (other than Star Wars) is opening in December for a long while buddy.

 

After the next 3 December Star Wars movies are "immune" to this "effect", I think we'll be able to say that after 5 out of 5 movies being immune to this "effect"...

 

this "effect" doesn't exist.

 

Yes, it does. There are example of franchises which have multiple movies opening at different times of the year - May, December, June etc. - and if you compare between summer months and December, you'll find that both the opening weekends are much lower in December and the movies gross about the same as they do in the summer.

[JonathanLB]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Also, you do realize the implications of this statement, right?

 

If what you are saying was true, then imagine this scenario. You put The Avengers in the summer, it opens to $200m and makes $600m total, for about a 3.0x multiplier.

 

If you put it in December, it opens to the same amount and magically gets a 4.0x multiplier instead of a 3.0x one, and magically generates $200m more at the box office than what it would have in the summer.

 

It just doesn't make ANY sense at all and isn't consistent with reality. Movies opening in December do not magically make hundreds of millions more at the box office just by virtue of the holidays. If they did, December would be the most packed month in the entire year and every studio would be vying to put their blockbusters in December at all costs.

 

Shh, don't tell them that, because you're absolutely right that it's a great time of the year to make a buttload of money and guarantee a big blockbuster plays forever in theaters. There's a reason the last 3 highest grossing movies ever ALL opened in December. The key here is that, no, studios can't schedule 5 big blockbusters for the same weekend. It simply doesn't work that way. It would ruin it for all of the movies, so you should expect that whoever is the biggest bully in town is going to get that slot. If Star Wars wants this slot, nobody else will compete, because it'll mainly hurt them. If Star Wars gives up that slot -- if there isn't a Star Wars movie one year -- it'll be taken over by the next biggest thing, perhaps a Marvel movie, perhaps Avatar, or whatever else. There can be only one! 

[Admiral Ackbar]

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

[Alli]

13 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Simply not true. I've said this before, but 90% of the reason for the big multipliers in December is because movies released in December underperform in their opening weekends (due to proximity to Christmas/weather).

THIS!

 

Take the Jack reacher franchise for example. the first one opened in december with 15M.  The sequel, even tho it wwas destroyed by critics opened to 22 million in october.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Also, you do realize the implications of this statement, right?

 

If what you are saying was true, then imagine this scenario. You put The Avengers in the summer, it opens to $200m and makes $600m total, for about a 3.0x multiplier.

 

If you put it in December, it opens to the same amount and magically gets a 4.0x multiplier instead of a 3.0x one, and magically generates $200m more at the box office than what it would have in the summer.

 

It just doesn't make ANY sense at all and isn't consistent with reality. Movies opening in December do not magically make hundreds of millions more at the box office just by virtue of the holidays. If they did, December would be the most packed month in the entire year and every studio would be vying to put their blockbusters in December at all costs.

 

That's exactly the argument.  Folks who are on the fence about seeing a movie but don't have the time and decide to go and see it on Blu Ray/Streaming/Cable later now have the time off in the holidays to catch a movie.

 

Mind, I'm not completely convinced by the argument myself.  But that's more or less it in a nutshell.

 

---

 

The analogy I made is that if there is a theoretical celling to a movie, releasing it in March you might get 50 to 70 percent of the total, in summer 70 to 80 percent and in the holidays 80 to 90.  Maybe.  Possibly.

That's the theory anyway and is one way to explain why some movies tend to do better than others at various point in the year.

 

As to why movie studios hadn't released blockbusters here?  Perhaps it's because Hollywood can be EXTREMELY conservative at times.  They refused to release blockbusters outside the traditional summer months until other films proved you could get massive bucks elsewhere in the calendar.  February was once seen as a dump month, but Deadpool (and to a degree 50 Shades) shattered that notion.  So too for other months.

 

A different way to put it is: No one likes to be the first to stick their head out of the trenches.   Well, TFA did it by necessity and while it didn't get a multiplier many holiday movies got, it still cleaned up in the weekdays FAR more than it would have done in any period, including the Summer.

 

====

 

As I said, I'm actually something of a multiplier skeptic when it comes to the holidays, so I know where your coming from.  But it's undeniable that there is more time off to see movies in this compressed frame, and movies have historically taken advantage of it.  Just not blockbusters for whatever reason.

[Captain H]

There's really no relevant comparison for the summer vs holiday debate, imo. The closest thing that we have is Toy Story 3 moving to summer from the previous ones Thanksgiving dates. But TS2 and TS3 is like, 10 years apart.

Edited December 17, 2016 by Captain H

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

 

Welcome!  You picked a perfect time to join.  If you can make it through this weekend and still want to stay, you'll love it here.

[WrathOfHan]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

• Week
• Month
• Year
• All Time

1. 1
   

   Grand Moff Tele 
    29,006
2. 2
   

   Christmas Baumer 
    16,673
3. 3
   

   grim22 
    12,624
4. 4
   

   CJohn 
    12,601
5. 5
   

   WrathOfHan 
    12,412

 

 

Oh damn, CJohn lost a lot of likes  

[WrathOfHan]

52 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm hoping for an extra 2M from the west coast and late shows.

 

RTH LIKED THIS POST YOU GUYS  

[terrestrial]

4 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

 great weekend to join.

And I think you will find you are not alone with being obsessed by numbers.

 

Do not be shy to ask questions about whatever or .....

 

Have a lot of fun!

[hw64]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

post

 

Yes, but it's not consistent with reality. Mission Impossible is a very consistent series at the box office (see here) - all movies made more or less $200m domestically total (except 3, but that was during Cruise's controversial scientology/crazy period). Ghost Protocol opened in December 2011 and made $209m. Rogue Nation opened at the end of July and made $195m. That discrepancy you see is probably mostly down to competition and the holidays, and its nowhere near the ridiculous hundreds of millions more that some people think December movies should make. It's 10%, and I think that's about right. A December movie will make less than 10% more than if it was released in the summer.

 

There are other examples of this, too.

Edited December 17, 2016 by hw64

[Eevin]

27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No, every single 110m+ opener except for like 3 show that they work the same no matter the time of year (multis sub 3.2x). So I don't buy the argument that it's the season that determines it. The size of the opening is far more important. Also the few that did get higher than 3.2x multis were summer releases except for TFA. 

That's because there hasn't been a $110m+ opener in the holiday season besides TFA. 

People can debate the logistics of holiday legs + big openings all they want, but the reality is that we only have one comparison, which was a phenomenon that may or may not ever happen again. Like it or not, things like Rogue One are establishing precedent for the next December event film, and the next, and the next.

For me, at least, the best part of box office is the unknown. History is constantly being made, folks. It's more fun that way.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

7 minutes ago, Admiral Ackbar said:

G'day guys, as you could probably see i'm new here. This weekend seems too busy to not finally join

 

Anyway, I've been visiting this forum for quite some time and finally thought I'd join as I don't have much of a life. Yeah nah jokes i'm just obsessed with numbers and movies so i'd thought it'd be fun.

 

Although this post will probably get lost in all the carnage of this thread, I do quite like what's in the title of this thread

 

Welcome!!!

[Mattrek]

1 hour ago, Christmas Baumer said:

It's a Friday night and the opening day for a Star Wars movie. Of course they are going to eat meltdowns and overreactions and the Seesaw mood swings every half hour on this site lol

 

How does one eat a meltdown?@Christmas Baumer

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mattrek said:

 

How does one eat a meltdown?@Christmas Baumer

 

 

http://www.sweetestkitchen.com/2012/07/melting-ice-cream-cake/

[MovieMan89]

Top 10 multis for 100m openers (Friday):

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. Toy Story 3 - 3.77x

3. Finding Dory - 3.6x

4. The Secret Life of Pets - 3.55x

5. The Jungle Book - 3.53x

6. Spider-man - 3.5x

7. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

8. Dead Man's Chest - 3.13x

9. Jurassic World - 3.13x

10. The Avengers - 3x

 

 

Top 10 multis for 150m openers:

1. The Force Awakens - 3.78x

2. The Dark Knight - 3.37x

3. Jurassic World - 3.13x

4. The Avengers - 3x

5. The Dark Knight Rises - 2.8x

6. Catching Fire - 2.69x

7. The Hunger Games - 2.68x

8. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 2.4x

9. Iron Man 3 - 2.35x

10. Civil War - 2.28x

 

Now #11 on the 100m list drops down below a 3x multi (Minions 2.92x). That drops down to just 4 among 150m+ ones, and only one to hit 3.4x+. You'll also notice the top 5 in the over 100m list are all heavily geared towards kids, and you could make an argument for that being true of the entire top ten save for The Dark Knight. I firmly stand by my belief R1 is not geared towards kids at all, so that's an even further hindrance in its path to joining the ten 100m+ openers to hit a 3x multi. 

Edited December 17, 2016 by MovieMan89

[druv10]

1 hour ago, Doctor RTH gone Rouge said:

 

just realised flaw , 69—73

OMG, that's fucking awesome!!! Just back from 2nd viewing, it holds very well. Legs are gonna be great!!!

[Daxtreme]

12 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Yes, it does. There are example of franchises which have multiple movies opening at different times of the year - May, December, June etc. - and if you compare between summer months and December, you'll find that both the opening weekends are much lower in December and the movies gross about the same as they do in the summer.

 

So Ep.7 would have opened to $312M in the summer, with a 3x multi that gets it to $936M

 

Got it

 

Actually, that would have been awesome