Wednesday Box Office - (Asgard pg 17) R1 about 15, Sing 11, Ass 4.5, Pass 4.1, Moana 2.2

[Mojoguy]

Wed looking about what DL had

R1 about 15, Sing 11, Ass 4.5, Pass 4.1, Moana 2.2

Thanks, Rth!

Posted on page 17 (if mods wanted to know)

[DAJK]

Deadline and arty can say the same numbers, but we still only trust rth

 

Thank you again for giving us numbers. Ivan go to sleep now I guess

[MovieMan89]

Using King Kong's second weekend holds when Xmas fell on the same day, R1 would be headed for as low as 57-58m this weekend.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by MovieMan89

[picores]

The opening for Pass and AC is not that terrible if we look how Girl with Dragon Tatoo opened with 5m on 2011 and ended with 102m....similar legs would mean 80m+ for Passengers and 90m+ for AC. WOM is not good for neither so i expect 70m final for both. Failures, but we have to wait for OS numbers before enter the bomb territory. Assassins Creed could still get to 300m WW.

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, yjs said:

yikes for that 26% daily drop for Moana.  guess it was unavoidable.

 

Theatre count change was 21 December (I think based on e.g. the holidays, and 3 films going wide at Wednesday based on that)

Moana lost 900 theatres (-25.1%)

 

Doctor Strange lost nearly 1400 (-72.1%)

Fantastic Beasts ~ 1000 (-35.2)

Allied, Mrs. Sloan, and Shut In all lost more than 90% (Sloan the worst with -95.9%)

 

15 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

so about a 14.5% drop, not bad all things considered.

Sure TFA didn't drop at all last year, but the week didn't play the same way, it was closer to Christmas.

For reference, Sherlock Holmes 2 dropped 17% in 2011, so somewhat in the same range.

@Grand Moff Tele what kind of drop did you have setup for Wed?

 

I think it was ~ -20% yesterday

Edited December 22, 2016 by terrestrial

[JonathanLB]

Eddie IS one of the most talented actors! That's what makes it so much more puzzling. Did the subject matter bore him as much as it did me? Because he seemed out of it. In his awards films he was simply masterful. And I hated The Danish Girl, didn't care at all about that POS, but he was amazing in it for sure. I don't think anyone could have done such a great job. 

[aabattery]

I really don't like Eddie Redmayne's acting. Maybe it's just me but I'm not a fan.

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

I really don't like Eddie Redmayne's acting. Maybe it's just me but I'm not a fan.

He was very good in Danish Girl IMO, but he hasn't impressed me otherwise, except for Theory of Everythig which he totally deserved his Oscar for.

[MovieMan89]

If you've seen DDL in My Left Foot, Redmayne in TTOE is simply reductive. 

[Dementeleus]

53 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

so about a 14.5% drop, not bad all things considered.

 

Sure TFA didn't drop at all last year, but the week didn't play the same way, it was closer to Christmas.

 

For reference, Sherlock Holmes 2 dropped 17% in 2011, so somewhat in the same range.

 

@Grand Moff Tele what kind of drop did you have setup for Wed?

 

I had a bigger Tuesday bump (about 8%) and a harsher Wednesday drop (about 24%). I was well off target.  

[Dementeleus]

46 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Using King Kong's second weekend holds when Xmas fell on the same day, R1 would be headed for as low as 57-58m this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

That would be completely fine for the 3-day. In fact, that's about what I expect it to do. 

[JonathanLB]

Exactly. In those two movies he was fantastic. But whatever he was doing in Fantastic Beasts was horrible. He also looks like an ugly goofus. So when he hangs his mouth open and just looks dumbfounded all movie long that's kind of annoying. 

[zackzack]

9 hours ago, John Marston said:

well AC can be scratched off the list for potential video game movie franchise

 

 

Passengers also will flop. In fact AC has a chance to do better overseas than Passengers

 

AC has incredible visuals and nice parkour-style action and I thought this could do $100M or even  $150M.

Re: Passengers, I was predicting it to be a massive disappointment just by looking at the trailer. It is the

same feeling I had when watching the trailer for Inferno. 

 

[JonathanLB]

I had no idea it would even be possible for Inferno to do that poorly.

 

I don't think Rogue One will be below $60M for the weekend, no. Possible? Maybe. But lowest I see is 20-12-28 for the three day and $60M with highest I see 23.5-13.5-33. 

[FantasticBeasts]

18 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Exactly. In those two movies he was fantastic. But whatever he was doing in Fantastic Beasts was horrible. He also looks like an ugly goofus. So when he hangs his mouth open and just looks dumbfounded all movie long that's kind of annoying. 

Well I found him good although I will have to agree that action may not be his best..

[BadAtGender]

1 hour ago, yjs said:

yikes for that 26% daily drop for Moana.  guess it was unavoidable.

 

Eh. It's not really a problem. Last week it dropped 30% on Wednesday, which was the best Wednesday drop it's seen, yet. The percentage increase over last week is about the same as it was yesterday. It might have taken a slightly bigger hit than expected from Sing + theater loss, but this seems to have been offset by the good word of mouth. 

 

Alternative take: If we want a calendar mate, we could look at The Muppets, which earned $10m From the 22nd to the 1st. Moana is pulling ~4x per day that The Muppets was, so we could probably expect ~$40m in that span, so it should be around $210m, which is basically the same as TS2 at that point, continuing to show that it's matching that run very closely. But also consider that The Muppets was not a film that exhibited especially good legs, so the chances it's going to end up doing better are pretty good. If it's $215m or so, that won't be surprising.

[titanic2187]

even R1 could take a big hit in 2nd weekend, the 3rd week still it would gain again....

[stripe]

Solid drop for RO considering it faced huge new competition. I would say it's going to gross nearly 100M for the 4day (25 - 14 - 29 - 31) for a 320-325M 11day gross.

 

Sing number is nice. I know that Alvin 2 opened in a different Holiday calendar, but I think it's the most comparable movie. Alvin 2 OD was 18.8M (but it was a Wednesday closer to Christmas, 23th). I would say Sing will gross 85-90M over the 6day opening.

 

Both AC and Passengers had underwhelming OD (specially Passengers). They opened slightly under 2011's The girl with the dragon tattoo 5M. It looks like both could come close to 20M 4day / 30M 6day.

 

 

[Krissykins]

Pretty dire for Passengers and Assassins Creed. 

[Mattrek]

Epic title mods. You've outdone yourself. Bravo